Is this really the end

[Beatinghearts]

It look like. It’s finally the end of this and everyone will be getting back to normal.

Well we're definitely not now despite what pp might have you believe

@tobee

We're not in lockdown

It's my understanding that we're currently on a road map out of Lockdown that opens up a little more on May 17th and "ends" on June 21st.

Happy to be corrected.

Yes but we're not in lockdown. As you specifically said we are. Which is untrue.

@tobee

Well we're definitely not now despite what pp might have you believe

No everything's completely normal.

I hugged my mum then went nightclubbing last night.

Tomorrow we're off to the pictures and then curl up on the comfy sofa in our favourite pub.

Then in Saturday nightclubbing again. My girls are all getting ready at my house. All 8 of them.

Unless of course we're in lockdown and not allowed to do any of those things.

@tobee

Yes but we're not in lockdown. As you specifically said we are. Which is untrue.

Lockdown ends on June 21st.

It's May 6th.

We're not in lockdown. There are restrictions. Like last summer when we came out of lockdown. There were still restrictions.

@tobee

We're not in lockdown. There are restrictions. Like last summer when we came out of lockdown. There were still restrictions.

Ok, well take that up with the Prime Minister. He said it, not me

👍

This looks optimistic on first look:-

I don't consider hospitalision to be something to be that optimistic about. It can be a traumatising experience if nothing else (patients have suffered PTSD). Lots of Covid sufferers have been readmitted or died several months after being discharged There's also the risk of the heart, lung, and other damage from long Covid.

The main issue for the government is not individual lives or health. It's the risk of the NHS, yet again, being overwhelmed.

Interesting to note the affected care home residents had been given AZ. I've seen reports that Pfizer is effective against the new strains. But is AZ?

If you really as you say cba to read other viewpoints you really will just wallow in despair
I am with you on the caution I really am. But you really aren't following the full picture here

If it does turn out AZ isn't as effective, they'll have to give everyone who had AZ a booster. Obviously at this stage it's only an if (and hopefully it won't be the case).

It might also be worth noting that vaccine take up amongst London care home staff is low. Only about 55-60%. People absolutely have the human right to refuse a vaccine but whether they should be in the job they're in is questionable. The vulnerable residents have human rights too - and that should include the right to be safe.

@sleepwouldbenice

If you really as you say cba to read other viewpoints you really will just wallow in despair I am with you on the caution I really am. But you really aren't following the full picture here

Is that for me? I've posted before how I very much like to see other viewpoints (and do sometimes change my mind).

@sleepwouldbenice

If you really as you say cba to read other viewpoints you really will just wallow in despair I am with you on the caution I really am. But you really aren't following the full picture here

I read very widely, but see no value in reading things that are not true.

So we have to aim high so that we can safely open up.

Israel are aiming for 90%

Here's where we are:

Israel currently have something like 60% vaccinated and lockdown almost entirely lifted, and cases/deaths/positivity rates still falling. So looks pretty good for other countries, us included!

I don’t think any of the UK governments have ever been explicit about what proportion they’re aiming for, so hard to compare that. Still, >90% actual take up in eligible age groups so far, hard to fault that.

Both we and Israel have a fair chunk of the population who’ve already had covid, which of course means you need fewer vaccinations to reach a herd immunity threshold. Suspect only fine will tell if Israel are there now but they’re certainly in a good place which is a great sign for countries like us.

@sleepwouldbenice

If you really as you say cba to read other viewpoints you really will just wallow in despair I am with you on the caution I really am. But you really aren't following the full picture here

Ok, I read it.

Given that he must understand the role of R in calculating herd immunity, and seems keen to deny the effect of lockdown on current cases I'm categorising it under disingenuous bullshlt.

As IF we were close to the herd immunity threshold three weeks ago!

We're not close to it now!

And as I said earlier, as we open up and the R goes up, so does the % vaccinated required the reach herd immunity.

So as we open up the herd immunity threshold gets further away.

Hospitalisations aren't great. But this was AZ and the residents had the Indian variant. And full immunity would not have kicked in yet.

@Tealightsandd

I don't consider hospitalision to be something to be that optimistic about. It can be a traumatising experience if nothing else (patients have suffered PTSD). Lots of Covid sufferers have been readmitted or died several months after being discharged There's also the risk of the heart, lung, and other damage from long Covid.

The main issue for the government is not individual lives or health. It's the risk of the NHS, yet again, being overwhelmed.

Interesting to note the affected care home residents had been given AZ. I've seen reports that Pfizer is effective against the new strains. But is AZ?

Sorry was meant to include this quote

Herd immunity equation will be helped by vaccination conferring reduced transmission.

@tobee

Herd immunity equation will be helped by vaccination conferring reduced transmission.

And hindered by allowing the spread of more transmissible variants.

Which are accounted for by booster jabs that can target different parts of the spike protein. The current vaccines are polyclonal. They produce antibodies and T cells and B cells.

Plus the more vaccination the fewer cases the smaller chance for variants.

Also, it is not yet known if the dominant strain in India is B1617.2.

The end day is only for England. A bit foolish I think. But it us BoJo.

And it's not over while there are mutant forms that could get in.

Instead of beating this disease I think the plan is to let it linger for generations, so this isn't the end by a long chalk, no.

@CarrieAntoinette

Instead of beating this disease I think the plan is to let it linger for generations, so this isn't the end by a long chalk, no.

What a bizarre thing to say. Why? Why would anyone plan that?

Singapore, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea

JAPAN

AND

SOUTH

KOREA

DO

NOT

HAVE

ANYTHING

LIKE

ZERO

COVID

Japan is in the middle of another surge, in case you've not noticed?