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Is this really the end

320 replies

Beatinghearts · 06/05/2021 13:48

It look like. It’s finally the end of this and everyone will be getting back to normal.

OP posts:
CarrieAntoinette · 07/05/2021 17:32

Got any more renowned experts saying the same thing @IcedPurple?

I'm not saying consensuses can't be wrong, but there's a reason why only certain types of people declared herd immunity in Brazil, India, and the U.K recently.

And why nobody whom I consider trustworthy says covid is endemic in the U.K.

tobee · 07/05/2021 17:33

We were/are near herd immunity. But @CarrieAntoinette is right that it is a "moving target".

CarrieAntoinette · 07/05/2021 17:34

Yes @tobee

Because 16 month in, the pandemic is growing, accelerating and the variants this year are fitter than last years.

It's going in precisely the opposite direction to that currently.

GoldenOmber · 07/05/2021 17:34

@Tealightsandd

The Bad Countries??? Confused Eh? Covid is a virus. It's not a country.
We forbid travel for some countries, but not others. And we impose strict measures for incoming travellers/migrants for some countries, but not others.

You might think that’s okay to do for now - and for years to come - because of Covid. But the poorer countries in the developing world are the ones most likely to have covid lingering around for years and years. Do you really, genuinely think the current government would never take any kind of advantage of having that power in place?

GoldenOmber · 07/05/2021 17:37

@CarrieAntoinette

Yes *@tobee*

Because 16 month in, the pandemic is growing, accelerating and the variants this year are fitter than last years.

It's going in precisely the opposite direction to that currently.

If only there was some way of drastically increasing population immunity, perhaps through some kind of vaccination programme?
tobee · 07/05/2021 17:38

And one that puts the brakes on transmission @GoldenOmber

Doghead · 07/05/2021 17:38

@123rd

I really hope it is...but I don't understand why so many OUTDOOR events that were due to take place have now been cancelled. Just yesterday in the local press 2 big events (1 sport 1 music ) towards the end of summer have already been pulled.
The larger events have had to cancel for insurance reasons. They government won't financially back them and they can't get covid insurance.
IcedPurple · 07/05/2021 17:39

@CarrieAntoinette

Got any more renowned experts saying the same thing *@IcedPurple*?

I'm not saying consensuses can't be wrong, but there's a reason why only certain types of people declared herd immunity in Brazil, India, and the U.K recently.

And why nobody whom I consider trustworthy says covid is endemic in the U.K.

I really don't know what your point is here.

You can do your own research for sources you consider subjectively 'trustworthy'. Covid is here to stay. Not just in Britain but around the world. Jabbering on about New Zealand is sheer obtuseness at this stage.The British government is not going to 'end' Covid. Neither is any other government on earth. But hopefully we will soon reach the point where normal life can resume without significant restrictions. This is the 'end' people are talking about in this discussion, and if you haven't got that by now, you never will.

CarrieAntoinette · 07/05/2021 17:39

@tobee

We were/are near herd immunity. But *@CarrieAntoinette* is right that it is a "moving target".
If you understand how herd immunity is calculated then surely you must agree with me that we have to aim high if we want headroom to open up safely, and we are nowhere near that yet. And won't be for some months.

47.7% of the population have had no vaccine yet.

75.6% haven't had their second yet.

And 48% are deemed to need a third in the autumn.

That's a lot of gaps in the "wall of vaccinated people" we hope the virus will come up against.

tobee · 07/05/2021 17:40

I'm not 100% sure this year's variants are "fitter". But they have come under the microscope (literally and figuratively) because we need the now developed and in use vaccines to deal with them.

CarrieAntoinette · 07/05/2021 17:40

Yeah. That's not happening any time soon @IcedPurple

GoldenOmber · 07/05/2021 17:42

@CarrieAntoinette

Yeah. That's not happening any time soon *@IcedPurple*
It is, though. Sorry.
tobee · 07/05/2021 17:42

But the vulnerable and elderly are largely vaccinated in the U.K. so the risk opening up involves is weighed against this. There isn't herd immunity for annual flu. But we don't endlessly lock down for that.

CarrieAntoinette · 07/05/2021 17:42

@GoldenOmber

How long do you think the global vaccination programme you mention will take?

IcedPurple · 07/05/2021 17:43

@CarrieAntoinette

Yeah. That's not happening any time soon *@IcedPurple*
Sorry.

I'm afraid.

Sadly.

The MN expert has spoken.

CarrieAntoinette · 07/05/2021 17:44

@tobee

But the vulnerable and elderly are largely vaccinated in the U.K. so the risk opening up involves is weighed against this. There isn't herd immunity for annual flu. But we don't endlessly lock down for that.
Covid isn't flu is the short answer to that.
tobee · 07/05/2021 17:46

And what's the long answer @CarrieAntoinette ? Of course it's not flu. But we were discussing herd immunity. They are both viruses. They both confer some immunity. They both respond to vaccination to a great extent. There is commonality.

GoldenOmber · 07/05/2021 17:47

[quote CarrieAntoinette]@GoldenOmber

How long do you think the global vaccination programme you mention will take? [/quote]
I don’t think there’s ever going to be one, sadly. Like many other diseases, the rich, vaccinated countries will decide they’re doing fine now thanks, throw a bit of money towards COVAX and move on.

You are free to campaign for no UK restrictions to be lifted until the whole world is vaccinated, but you’re going to be in a minority.

CarrieAntoinette · 07/05/2021 17:48

@IcedPurple

Maybe quoting me saying the things you seem to be suggesting I say would be more helpful than quoting me not saying them?

Just a suggestion.

Happy to check back in with you in a few months.

I'm sure there will be regular "covid is over" threads on Mumsnet. There were last year.

Ohnomoreno · 07/05/2021 17:50

Where do the people that post all over these threads come from? No one I know thinks like this. They're either beyond caring or hoping for the best without pretending they have all the answers ...

tobee · 07/05/2021 17:50

Covid will cease to be the thing it is now.

I'm sure there will be people saying "no it's not over" for many years to come. And that's correct. But it will be entirely manageable. And soon. Certainly in the west.

IcedPurple · 07/05/2021 17:51

[quote CarrieAntoinette]@IcedPurple

Maybe quoting me saying the things you seem to be suggesting I say would be more helpful than quoting me not saying them?

Just a suggestion.

Happy to check back in with you in a few months.

I'm sure there will be regular "covid is over" threads on Mumsnet. There were last year. [/quote]
Along with the 'I'm afraid there'll never be a vaccine against Covid' posts?

Tealightsandd · 07/05/2021 17:51

@GoldenOmber
We forbid travel for some countries, but not others. And we impose strict measures for incoming travellers/migrants for some countries, but not others.
Exactly. We don't have pandemic border control. What we have is a farcical joke pandemic border control.

Like I say, proper pandemic border control means restricted travel full stop. No matter which country going to and from, no matter what your nationality, passport, citizenship, or residency. (Genuinely) essential travel only (no exemptions for government chums) with real quarantine - as in all incoming travellers, no matter which country they're arriving from.

and for years to come
Do you not understand what temporary means? We're rolling out the vaccines. We might have to tweak some to tackle the UK, South African, and Indian strains, but we're getting there. We just need to get the majority of the population fully vaccinated. That won't be years.... unless we keep letting new strains in and allow them to spread, with the potential of developing vaccine resistancy before majority jabbed. Obviously border control would mitigate against that.

the poorer countries in the developing world are the ones most likely to have covid lingering around for years and years.
So far, the strict border control and proper quarantine many (but not all) of these countries have adopted has thankfully kept their cases very low. Good point about the poorer countries though. We owe it to them to take measures so that we don't allow yet another UK strain to spread misery around the world. We've already done it once.

CarrieAntoinette · 07/05/2021 17:52

So @GoldenOmber

When we had this exchange earlier and you said

I have a lot of faith in vaccines, which are the way out of this, up to and including not having any border measures at all.

to which I replied

One day.

Not this year.

Or next.

When did you think border measures would cease to be needed if you don't think the world will be vaccinated?

Tealightsandd · 07/05/2021 17:53

@tobee

Covid will cease to be the thing it is now.

I'm sure there will be people saying "no it's not over" for many years to come. And that's correct. But it will be entirely manageable. And soon. Certainly in the west.

certainly in the west Really?? The East - Asia Pacific, yes. They already are managing it pretty much. The West on the other hand....
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