If you think it's too soon for normal life to be resuming...

[TheVampiresWife]

...when do you think it won't be? What criteria would you like to see met?

I've seen lots of posts here saying that the trials going on in Liverpool/hospitality reopening/the pencilled-in end to restrictions in June and so on are all happening too soon. If your thinking is along these lines, why so - do you think we should be aiming for zero covid before things reopen fully? Or are variants your main worry? And if you do feel this way, will you continue to SD/stay home/not participate in large events etc beyond June?

My own thinking is that we're in a better position now than we've been since all this began - the majority of adults have had at least one vaccination (and vaccines have been proven to reduce transmission), rates are incredibly low or suppressed in many areas and over 60% of people have antibodies. But I'm interested to know why people may feel differently.

I think the trials are a good idea. I’m not convinced about foreign travel yet. I know people may have to travel but not convinced a week AI in Spain (or similar) is currently appropriate.

@superram

I think the trials are a good idea. I’m not convinced about foreign travel yet. I know people may have to travel but not convinced a week AI in Spain (or similar) is currently appropriate.

I agree re foreign travel, unless there's properly monitored quarantine/isolation on arrival. For a while longer, at least.

For me it isn't that it is 'too soon' - it is that the proper mitigations to prevent a resurgence are not in place.

I would be more comfortable if:

• borders were more protected (only 1% currently go into quarantine)
• the government weren't pretending LFTs work
• isolation was more supported (i.e. sick pay like in mainland Europe)
• track and trace worked
• better mitigations in place in school and workplaces

So I don't think is too early, I just think the UK is still a sitting target for a fuck up.

I am not happy with 30,000 predicted covid deaths during the next wave, mostly because I fear that a small balls up could make that worse. If you are happy with those deaths as planned by government, that is fine.

Responding to the title only:

... then stay the fuck at home and stop bitching about other people enjoying their legal freedoms!

I'm thoroughly fed up of the whinging going on.

I think some people believe that we should be waiting until 30-40 year olds are done especially as they make up a lot of the working population.

If you’re that age and haven’t been offered a jab but obeyed all the rules to protected the elderly and vulnerable then I can understand how that would rankle someone.

Not my personal belief but just putting forward a perspective.

There isn't a magic level of illness at which it's fine, IMO, because that isn't what will make the difference to what happens as we open up. Before we fully open up, we need to be at a level of immunity, rather than illness, that means rates won't just inexorably rise again. For me it's about keeping illness rates level or going down, not going up. We need stability to manage covid.

It's all very well having foreign holidays and care home visits and routine surgery and so on back because of testing - if the testing is constantly picking up cases because we've let rates get high again, then those things still won't be able to happen. Hospitalizations and long covid are still things we don't want to increase too much.

For me the key question is : are we opening up at a rate that will keep covid cases roughly stable, because increasing vaccinations will keep a lid on it and balance out the opening up, or are we going a bit too fast, and getting ahead of vaccinations, so rates of covid will start growing again?

I'd feel reassured about the rate of opening up if I trusted people to also voluntarily keep doing the distance, ventilation, mask things a lot of the time, even if not all the time, but people seem to see it as all or nothing. But the fact is we really need those things to be doing some of the work of keeping a lid on covid rates, alongside vaccination.

And yes, variants are a big worry as the wrong one could undo all the good of the vaccination programme. Again, keeping rates low by a mixture of measures including ordinary people not abandoning all precautions at once is what we need.

I'm not competely sure if we're going too fast or not, but those are my concerns.

@picturesandpickles

For me it isn't that it is 'too soon' - it is that the proper mitigations to prevent a resurgence are not in place.

I would be more comfortable if:

• borders were more protected (only 1% currently go into quarantine)
• the government weren't pretending LFTs work
• isolation was more supported (i.e. sick pay like in mainland Europe)
• track and trace worked
• better mitigations in place in school and workplaces

So I don't think is too early, I just think the UK is still a sitting target for a fuck up.

I am not happy with 30,000 predicted covid deaths during the next wave, mostly because I fear that a small balls up could make that worse. If you are happy with those deaths as planned by government, that is fine.

And all of this!

We (NHS) are being prepared to expect another wave around November so I think things should return to as much normal as they can now. I just hope enough people take up the vaccination offer and are sensible, whilst having a normal lifestyle.

Everyone vaccinated before we open up fully I'd say, and foreign holidays not until about July for the same reason.

It’s all subjective but on balance, no I don’t think it’s too soon although I am mentally prepared (as much as I can be) that some restrictions may have to be implemented again any time between now and spring 2022.

There’s still a lot of unknowns and everything is an experiment in truth. I’m more concerned about the widespread belief that we’re done as far as covid is concerned. We’re in a great position and I hope that I’m proved wrong but then I’ve been hoping that since Feb 2020.

I don't think it is too soon and I actually find it positive that they are doing trials now of large events so hopefully they can be reopened soon rather than delaying it further. Trials also hopefully allow decisions on what mitigation will be required.

I do think there still needs to be mitigation in place as this is still an unknown, not enough data on the effect of vaccinations yet (due to the fact they are very new) We don't know what will happen when the whole of society is reopened again, also allowing for the fact that many won't be following any of the guidelines at all and be totally back to normal and not testing or quaranting if they have symptoms etc either.
We need to be sure we are reopened and everything is stable in order to lift further mitigations because the last thing anyone wants right now is any hitches that would lead to steps backwards.

Last summer everything was good (for the most part, some area's it wasn't) and that was also without vaccination so there is no reason to believe this summer can't be the same and with some further relaxations this year than last however many people warned about the possibility of what could happen in the winter and were told to lock themselves up and not leave the house again and lets just say they were right to be cautious as it ended up being one entire fuck up.

Once we have more data on how long the vaccinated will be protected by their vaccine (will they need boosters and how long will that take, will we have unprotected vulnerable people again while we roll out boosters that will in turn lead to hospitalisations and death) we don't have any variants of concern that could undermine the entire vaccination programme then we can remove the mitagitations knowing that covid is under control. There won't ever be zero covid, there probably will be a lot of covid as there is with flu but with vaccination the amount of flu is at a manageable level and hopefully we will be at that point with covid soon as well.

I haven't been invited for a vaccination yet (I'm 38) and I do feel like no one gives a shit about whether I catch covid now or not, even though I've done everything to protect others throughout (as well as worked all the way through, no furlough here...). Especially as the majority of people I know - including my age and younger too - got their vaccines early either through their work, by luck if their area was ahead or due to something like a high BMI putting them into group 6. They now feel "safe" and I can see on public transport and elsewhere people are not keeping their distance or even wearing masks now.

It's not as easy as just "stay at home if you don't want to catch covid", either. What about people in their 30s and 40s who need to go to work, take public transport, have kids at school etc.?

I'd be much happier to maintain the current level of restrictions until early July for example when the 30s and 40s age groups have at least had their first jabs + a few weeks to build immunity. We've seen over and over how the government has moved just a bit too soon and infections have gone up again.

When I've been vaccinated and everyone else has been offered the vaccine too. The people who have already been vaccinated keep forgetting that many of us haven't had it yet.

@picturesandpickles

For me it isn't that it is 'too soon' - it is that the proper mitigations to prevent a resurgence are not in place.

I would be more comfortable if:

• borders were more protected (only 1% currently go into quarantine)
• the government weren't pretending LFTs work
• isolation was more supported (i.e. sick pay like in mainland Europe)
• track and trace worked
• better mitigations in place in school and workplaces

So I don't think is too early, I just think the UK is still a sitting target for a fuck up.

I am not happy with 30,000 predicted covid deaths during the next wave, mostly because I fear that a small balls up could make that worse. If you are happy with those deaths as planned by government, that is fine.

These are sensible measures and I agree with what you're saying, when you put it like this. The government's track record is hardly exemplary. Although I do think the current more cautious approach to reopening is better than the shitshow of last summer, but to be fair that wouldn't be difficult.

I do think there will, unfortunately, be deaths every year due to covid, perhaps in line with the numbers who die from flu. Perhaps for a long time to come, too. I'm not happy with that and I don't think it's fine but I do think it will happen.

I’m happy with the rate of relaxing restrictions. Covid rates are low now and the majority of adults are vaccinated. Those that aren’t are low risk. I really feel it’s time to open up now after so long. Everyone has missed out on so much and the negative impact of restrictions now outweigh the risk of covid to the vast majority. We cannot keep restrictions that impact on people’s daily lives, as well as businesses and the economy. It really is time for those who are still worried to stay in and everyone else get on with their lives.

And yes we may see deaths every year from covid in line with the numbers we see from flu. Covid isn’t going to go away and we can’t escape this. It isn’t a reason to keep restrictions. As long as hospitalisations and deaths aren’t high enough to overwhelm the NHS then it has to be acceptable.

There'll never be "zero Covid", just like there isn't "zero 'flu".
Though I accept there is now zero polio, smallpox and diphtheria

@Racoonworld

And yes we may see deaths every year from covid in line with the numbers we see from flu. Covid isn’t going to go away and we can’t escape this. It isn’t a reason to keep restrictions. As long as hospitalisations and deaths aren’t high enough to overwhelm the NHS then it has to be acceptable.

The numbers are a choice - I think with the mitigations I suggest the numbers could be lower than the number Johnson has decided is ok.

I do agree covid is here - but the number of deaths is a choice.

I would choose lower circulating infections and therefore lower deaths.

Johnson has chosen middle level deaths.

I feel it’s too soon for me. So I won’t be rushing out to meet up kiss and cuddle. But not sure when the right time will be. People obviously can do what’s allowed/what they want.

@nordica

I haven't been invited for a vaccination yet (I'm 38) and I do feel like no one gives a shit about whether I catch covid now or not, even though I've done everything to protect others throughout (as well as worked all the way through, no furlough here...). Especially as the majority of people I know - including my age and younger too - got their vaccines early either through their work, by luck if their area was ahead or due to something like a high BMI putting them into group 6. They now feel "safe" and I can see on public transport and elsewhere people are not keeping their distance or even wearing masks now.

It's not as easy as just "stay at home if you don't want to catch covid", either. What about people in their 30s and 40s who need to go to work, take public transport, have kids at school etc.?

I'd be much happier to maintain the current level of restrictions until early July for example when the 30s and 40s age groups have at least had their first jabs + a few weeks to build immunity. We've seen over and over how the government has moved just a bit too soon and infections have gone up again.

I understand your concerns and I’d probably have them too in your position but please do remember that the vaccines have shown great evidence that they do reduce transmission. Even if you’re not vaccinated personally you’ll be benefitting from less circulation in the general population.

Vaccines won’t make covid magically go away but it does raise the bar of what level we can operate at as a society with reduced odds of contracting an infection or medical capacity being overwhelmed.

Just because you’re not personally vaccinated yet you will be gaining benefits from the wider programme.

It is tricky. If it weren’t for the variants, I think it would be totally safe to open up.

However, if the SA variant has achieved vaccine escape from the AZ vaccine, we will, within a couple of months, be back in full lockdown, with the only variant in circulation being the one that has achieved vaccine escape.

I guess the only way to find out is to do what we are doing step by step, and hope that the genomic monitoring can keep the variants at bay.

I am confident that in the vaccines vs Covid war, vaccines will prevail, but I would not be surprised if we needed a couple more rounds of vaccines to finally win.

Open most things up internally, but close the flipping borders.
You cannot do both - we have seen the consequences of doing both at the same time twice. Both times led to surges and lockdown.

This is the third chance for the government to get it right.

Why are they determined to screw it up again and introduce new variants that will put us right back to square one again.

Even animals can learn from their mistakes. Not the Uk government though.

Personally I’d like to see people in their 20s and 30s vaccinated before the wider reopening as children under 16 are unable to be vaccinated and as we saw before Christmas schools provide the perfect place for transmission when community transmission is high. It worries me that things are opening up lots while younger people remain unvaccinated and the unvaccinated age groups are out at work, make up a good proportion of patents of school aged children and are likely to be enjoying going to places that are reopening running the risk of rising cases in these age groups which will then have a knock on effect on cases in schools and the community too. Vaccinations aren’t a hundred percent effective so we want to keep case rates low.

Parents not patients!

I think it is too early to allow non-essential travel overseas (but I would say visiting elderly relatives is essential).

I don't think all social distancing restrictions should go before all adults have been offered one vaccine.

And I think masks should stay in crowded indoor areas until all adults have been offered one vaccine too.

The Times was reporting today that all SD will go from 21 June except some capacity constraints at places like Wembley. Will al adults have received (or been offered) their first jab by then?