If you think it's too soon for normal life to be resuming...

[TheVampiresWife]

...when do you think it won't be? What criteria would you like to see met?

I've seen lots of posts here saying that the trials going on in Liverpool/hospitality reopening/the pencilled-in end to restrictions in June and so on are all happening too soon. If your thinking is along these lines, why so - do you think we should be aiming for zero covid before things reopen fully? Or are variants your main worry? And if you do feel this way, will you continue to SD/stay home/not participate in large events etc beyond June?

My own thinking is that we're in a better position now than we've been since all this began - the majority of adults have had at least one vaccination (and vaccines have been proven to reduce transmission), rates are incredibly low or suppressed in many areas and over 60% of people have antibodies. But I'm interested to know why people may feel differently.

@Ugzbugz

Who are these 30k that are predicted to die?

Also no point in waiting until we are all fuly vaccinated as apparently over 50s will have a booster for winter.

And if its so deadly to younger people then why the fuck are well at work and going to school etc. I honestly can't get my head round any of it.

They are people who will contract covid despite being vaccinated and still get seriously ill, plus smaller numbers of people who can't be vaccinated/chose not to be vaccinated.

@mercybooth

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/01/chris-whitty-society-will-have-to-learn-to-live-with-covid-in-similar-way-to-flu

Adapting vaccines, not zero covid, living with it like flu etc
Not difficult to find

@TheKeatingFive

So that's why there'll be another wave soon, and probably another lockdown

The U.K. isn’t pursuing a zero Covid strategy.

You do realise that?

Yes.

That's what I said in my post.

That's why there will be another wave soon, and probably another lockdown.

@Ugzbugz

Who are these 30k that are predicted to die?

Also no point in waiting until we are all fuly vaccinated as apparently over 50s will have a booster for winter.

And if its so deadly to younger people then why the fuck are well at work and going to school etc. I honestly can't get my head round any of it.

Here's the Warwick modelling:

That's why there will be another wave soon, and probably another lockdown.

Waves aren’t a problem if cases aren’t serious.

Lockdowns are a political choice, not an inevitable consequence.

@TheKeatingFive

That's why there will be another wave soon, and probably another lockdown.

Waves aren’t a problem if cases aren’t serious.

Lockdowns are a political choice, not an inevitable consequence.

You sound so very confident.

Epidemiologists are concerned that large waves in the UK creates a higher risk of vaccine, factually it is inarguable that more transition increases this risk.

My view is 30,000 deaths when we could have fewer is not the right choice. Caring for those dying people will require a lot of ICU resource, those 30,000 will be the pinnacle of a very large and expensive pyramid of cases.

The UK is taking the wrong path still IMO, and there is so much we could be doing to reduce our death and illness rate next winter. But a political choice has been made, we all know by now Johnson does not care to prevent death, suffering or NHS overload.

Hospitals fine for reopening. No to foreign travel as under 40s not vaccinated so risk of illness being brought back and affecting a huge group of working people /parents with school children. So not worth the risk until everyone has been offered the chance to vaccinate.

Although I think we need to start getting back to normal, I think the government is getting a bit ahead of themselves particularly looking at some of the other countries who also have good vaccination programmes.

People really aren't seeing the big picture here. As a 41 year old I have been happy for about a month now that I'm mostly protected by the fact the majority of people around me are vaccinated. When I get it that will be a bonus. The jabs are much more effectove at a population level than individual (although they're pretty damn good there too) and the protection is mostly in the lower rates of circulation through te population.

mobile.twitter.com/hughosmond/status/1389331481110142983

News: after unexplained 2 week delay, Court ruled our claim "academic" as would not be heard before 17th May. After the ruling, SAGE quietly released a report saying no evidence that UK hospitality venues were ever a major risk. A cover up.

There is no reason to keep the remaining restrictions in place any longer

@superram

I think the trials are a good idea. I’m not convinced about foreign travel yet. I know people may have to travel but not convinced a week AI in Spain (or similar) is currently appropriate.

I agree with that.

As long as 'return to normal' is gradual (& stops if there are many new cases), I think it's fine because we are doing so well with the vaccination programme.

You sound so very confident

Well I am confident in the statements I made. They’re both true.

As for deaths, there will be some, we’ve all known this. Whether the scary predictions come true is another thing. We’ve heard plenty of those before.

Equally the time is fast approaching where Covid will be treated like other diseases that cause certain numbers of deaths per year. The economic, social and personal costs of lockdown are absolutely colossal and the will to continue to pay those is ebbing every day.

I see from what you wrote @TheKeatingFive you only see two options, lockdown vs whatever deaths we get, and with that limited understanding of the choices our government is making I can understand why you have got to your position.

I don't want lockdown and I also know the government could push those deaths down without lockdown, because there are always policy choices.

Because some people want an excuse to do as little as possible.

I'd rather wait until people in my age group have been vaccinated. I'm in my 40s and in Scotland which seems to be fucking useless with vaccination - people a decade younger are getting done elsewhere. I don't want to go back to the office and put myself at risk after a year staying at home to keep other people safe. It seems really unfair - feel totally thrown under the bus here.

That's why there will be another wave soon, and probably another lockdown

If thats the case, then vaccines are a complete waste of time?

We had ONE death yesterday, vaccines show great protection against the known variants, there is now no reason not to open up over the next few weeks, inc foreign hols - without the ridiculous cost of PCR testing & quarantines.
Europe is doing millions of vaccinations each and every day now.

But if the argument is "We need travel restrictions, in case there is a variant out there that is vaccine resistant" which seems to be Johnsons view, then we might as well get used to holidays in the UK for many more years to come.

Not at all, I’m happy enough with minor mitigations. I have no problems (personally) with mask wearing, some degree of SD with strangers, and I think ventilation should be much higher on the agenda for everyone. Frequent testing is also a good thing.

However, shutting down society to the degree we have done and keeping people from their close family and friends is not a route we should ever go down again to my mind.

@CirqueDeMorgue

Because some people want an excuse to do as little as possible.

@TheKeatingFive

Not at all, I’m happy enough with minor mitigations. I have no problems (personally) with mask wearing, some degree of SD with strangers, and I think ventilation should be much higher on the agenda for everyone. Frequent testing is also a good thing.

However, shutting down society to the degree we have done and keeping people from their close family and friends is not a route we should ever go down again to my mind.

We would be at far lower risk of it ever happening again if Johnson made the changes we all know - him included - would make it less likely:

• sick pay
• complete overhaul of t&t
• mitigate airborne risk
• better border measures
• address the risk in schools (pools of unvaccinated hosts)

Lockdown is failure, but equally 30,000 deaths is failure (that will be over 100,000 ICU admissions, huge expense to taxpayers).

I’m happy with the current plan for coming out of lockdown. I’ve just my first jab, but I felt the same before that.

I would like to se foreign travel restricted for another year however so that there is limited opportunity for new variants to come into the country. I also think it could be a tremendous boost for our economy if UK citizens spend their holidays (and their money!) in the UK this year.

@picturesandpickles oh that sure told me. 🙄

@AlecTrevelyan006

There is no reason to keep the remaining restrictions in place any longer

I agree with this.

The papers are reporting that people now have anxiety about returning to normal life and I do think this fear fuels a lot of the clamour for ongoing restrictions.

We would be at far lower risk of it ever happening again if Johnson made the changes we all know - him included - would make it less likely

I don’t disagree, but we know these things are difficult. I don’t find it surprising that the current government has thus far failed to crack them.