India

[Baileysforchristmas]

How on earth are India going to get there numbers down? If they impose to harsher lockdown people will starve to death. I think virus was quietly spreading in February when everyone was saying how well India was doing.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/21/delhi-warns-hospitals-running-out-of-oxygen-amid-indias-devastating-covid-wave

@GrumpyHoonMain

The poor have probably already caught and died / recovered from the disease without much medical intervention. The reason why the current wave is making the news is because it’s affecting wealthier people who are getting complications younger because most middle class Indians have really inactive and unhealthy lifestyles.

I agree that this is what is making the headlines. And yes, it's probably likely that many of the poorest have already died without even knowing that they had covid.

There is an acceptance of premature death in the poorer communities that is hard for us to get our heads around. All too often, there is no investigation and the cause of death is never known.

If the situation is bad for the sharp-elbowed middle classes, it will be a whole lot worse for the poor.

That simply isn't true @GrumpyHoonMain, every time there's been a wave we have people predicting that means "everyone" already got it. ICMR reported in February that 21% of Indians had been exposed to covid. That means 79% hadn't, herd immunity is expected to be more like 70%, i.e. half the population still to catch covid, and there can be overshoot if there is no control over the speed of case growth. The pattern also varies enormously with much higher previous infection rates in cities; Delhi had the highest previous infections but look at it now, swamped with cases.

@FeelingForced, I hope you stay safe.

And yy @lurker101, it will indeed be a shock for some people to find that money and connections won't necessarily get them out of this.

@MRex

That simply isn't true *@GrumpyHoonMain*, every time there's been a wave we have people predicting that means "everyone" already got it. ICMR reported in February that 21% of Indians had been exposed to covid. That means 79% hadn't, herd immunity is expected to be more like 70%, i.e. half the population still to catch covid, and there can be overshoot if there is no control over the speed of case growth. The pattern also varies enormously with much higher previous infection rates in cities; Delhi had the highest previous infections but look at it now, swamped with cases.

India doesn’t class death of complications due to covid as death by covid so numbers has kept artificially low. ‘Old age’ or ‘heart attack’ is still being put down as cause of death even in cities. So most medical professionals believe mortality rates are 5-10 x what official figures suggest. Same with infections - most people aren’t reporting symptoms or being tested especially in poorer or more built up areas. I know people who work in IMR and the belief is herd immunity is a lot higher. The reports you see now are of an overrun healthcare system full of unhealthy rich (and young) people - but from a numbers perspective it’s not necessarily a problem when you consider how large India’s population is.

That's all totally correct, I'm referring to the percentage identified with antibodies from serology testing.

Thank you, @paralysedbyinertia.

I imagine the only young population that have protections against this pandemic are children but even then there will be vast differences in how this impacts across social strata.

No sadly not. A lot of children have died in Brasil because of a combination of lack of medical facilities / late detection and poverty.

Also many young children will lose a lot of family members who would care for them. That will also cost lives.

Wasn't there a report by the WHO that stated that in Western countries, Covid deaths were more likely in the elderly whilst in poorer developing countries, whilst older people were still more likely to die, a lot of young people were also likely to die? I think the reasons given were that younger people in the developing countries were more likely to have undiagnosed diabetes or heart problems and if they did catch Covid they would be unlikely to be able to access medical treatment for it.

I think we tend to assume that all young people are healthy but if you've grown up in absolute poverty surely it's likely that you have unknown health issues (don't know really, I'm not a doctor and I'm not sure if anyone has researched this).

So sorry for those with family in India, it must be so worrying at the moment.

I’ve just donated to karuna.org they are trying to help the most deprived communities at this awful time.

Please consider donating.

Great call @IpanemaChic. I'd love to donate, but all of our spare cash is going to help extended family at the moment, as they have been really struggling since the pandemic first hit last year. Not easy, given that I was also made redundant recently and DH's self employed income has plummeted. Difficult times, but I feel so grateful for having a secure roof over our heads, plenty of food on the table and access to healthcare when we need it. Not to mention the fact that DH and I have both had our first vaccination, of course. So many others are not so fortunate.

I have donated fairly extensively, because I am in the lucky position of having spare cash ( for now) and because my family is self sufficient. The thing with being Indian or of Indian origin is that I sometimes feel like I am bailing out the Titanic with a thimble. Its problems are so large, so complex and so overwhelming. And sadly we have terrible governance.

Yes, I know exactly what you mean about bailing out the Titanic with a thimble.

DH is the only one of his extended family to have left the country, or even had a decent job, so I feel a bit like that just with regard to our family alone. Scale it up to his whole village and it already starts to feel overwhelming. Then think about it at a national level in a country the size of India, and the mind just boggles...

The governance issue is massive too. It's such an enormous challenge to govern a country as huge, as diverse and as complex as India. Even with the very best governance, it would be an incredibly tough job. Sadly, India's governance is far from being "the best", which just exacerbates all of the problems.

To anyone thinking of donating please research organisations thoroughly. On the ground many ‘charities’ getting donations from NRI Indians are also supporting people to leapfrog waiting lists for essential medical treatment, and applying caste or religion base discrimination when spending funds.

Vogue India created a list of charities recently re: recommendations of where to Donate and I probably agree with all of them except one or two of the creator based ones.

www.google.com/amp/s/www.vogue.in/culture-and-living/content/indian-charities-to-support-those-affected-by-the-coronavirus-crisis/amp

@paralysedbyinertia

Yes, I know exactly what you mean about bailing out the Titanic with a thimble.

DH is the only one of his extended family to have left the country, or even had a decent job, so I feel a bit like that just with regard to our family alone. Scale it up to his whole village and it already starts to feel overwhelming. Then think about it at a national level in a country the size of India, and the mind just boggles...

The governance issue is massive too. It's such an enormous challenge to govern a country as huge, as diverse and as complex as India. Even with the very best governance, it would be an incredibly tough job. Sadly, India's governance is far from being "the best", which just exacerbates all of the problems.

Yes. The sad thing is India has the infrastructure - it has more hospitals than any country on earth, but a culture of mismanagement, two tier medical services, and a long history of state hospitals accepting doctors with lesser qualifications than private ones, has led to huge inequality.

The biggest problem State hospital patiente face is that patients’ families are often given a list of medications and treatments and equipment and they have to go and get them themselves (even for hospital treatments).

If the dispensary at the hospital has them, great, if not huge amounts of time is wasted trying to procure them and in the meantime patients can (and often do) end up losing their beds.

Richer people on the other hand just need to go into a private hospitals and can pay to have all of that done or get it done before they get sick. You can even see it now - many middle class people are putting out requests for oxygen cylinders and antivirals ‘just in case’ they need them.

It's really sad. I made a small donation to hope charity their volunteers are on the ground in the poorer area's.

This is beyond grim from the BBC.

twitter.com/NicolaCareem/status/1385151682003279872

Hospitals in Delhi running out of oxygen

Yes, we've been watching the news stories about the oxygen shortage today. Hospitals tweeting SOS messages and people stockpiling oxygen at home just in case! I believe some states have now banned the sale of oxygen to individuals, but no doubt there will be a thriving black market.

I'm not sure if oxygen capacity can be increased quickly, but with the exponential growth in cases, the problem is only going to get worse. I hope that other countries can help if required.

Meanwhile, a minister was caught on camera earlier threatening to slap a man who was pleading for oxygen for his sick mother.

It makes you appreciate the NHS. I know the NHS isn’t perfect but at least we don’t have very wealthy people hoarding oxygen in case they get sick.

I am truly, truly grateful for the NHS. We take it for granted, and of course, it is far from perfect, but we are very lucky to have it.

The BBC report is terrible. I work operationally in the nhs. Those scenes are our nightmare and we avoided it so far but there but for the grace of god...
Covid can kill very quickly without oxygen. Countless lives in the uk hVe been saved by maintaining that supply and we've had some dodgy moments so far. We watched our consumption so closely during the peaks.

@Baileysforchristmas

It makes you appreciate the NHS. I know the NHS isn’t perfect but at least we don’t have very wealthy people hoarding oxygen in case they get sick.

It makes me think about why the private hospitals were taken over; not just bed capacity but also all the other resources alongside.

I wondered a couple of months ago why there were full crowds at the India v England cricket matches. And then there weren't but probably too late.
It's a horrific situation

A tiny little ray of light tonight in the midst of the awfulness - a preliminary study has shown that covishield (AZ vaccine) appears to protect against the double mutant Indian strain. Earlier studies have suggested that the Indian vaccine covaxin also provides good protection.

It may be cold comfort in light of the current situation, especially as only 10% of the population are vaccinated, but it's good news nonetheless.

Encouraging news for us here in the UK, too, as it seems that the Indian variant may have already started to spread in this country.

Reading the dreadful news about what is happening in India.

paralysedbyinertia if you have any links to articles, Twitter or the actual studies, I’d really like to see them. I haven’t found anything yet.