India

[Baileysforchristmas]

How on earth are India going to get there numbers down? If they impose to harsher lockdown people will starve to death. I think virus was quietly spreading in February when everyone was saying how well India was doing.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/21/delhi-warns-hospitals-running-out-of-oxygen-amid-indias-devastating-covid-wave

Very nerve wracking situation. You have a double mutation of the virus - which is also worrying enough - set loose among millions of new people. I really hope it doesn’t mutate further. I can’t believe we’ve only just closed the borders (not yet!)

@Lucidas

Very nerve wracking situation. You have a double mutation of the virus - which is also worrying enough - set loose among millions of new people. I really hope it doesn’t mutate further. I can’t believe we’ve only just closed the borders (not yet!)

The independent was reporting on a triple mutation yesterday.

Mutations aren’t necessarily scary. Virus could mutate 5x but mutate 5 times to become milder in symptoms. We don’t need to be terrified because of the word mutation. Viruses can mutate either way.

Obviously, some mutations are not good but don’t freak out over the words ‘triple mutation’. It could be vaccine evading BUT be a milder strain that kills a lot less people. All kinds of possibilities. A virus is most successful when mild as it doesn’t kill its host, so it’s an advantage to not be so deadly. Covid has been so horribly successful because in the vast majority, it is mild in terms of death. Not to play down the many deaths there has been, it’s really really sad, but still, they are a small percentage of the entire population.

Yes @HolmeH, I do understand that, and I believe that the "triple mutation" is still one of "interest" rather than "concern". I'm just worried about the potential for new strains which might evade the vaccines.

The whole thing is just a horrible mess.

One of the things that has really angered me throughout Covid lockdowns is the failure of imagination so many people have. People bitching about how life isn't worth living, sitting in decent housing with sufficient food and a health service that managed not to completely collapse, all because they can't go to a pub or jet off to Spain.

It is horrific in India at the minute. I have been in touch with friends there, including a close friend who worked for a medical charity there (which pulled out last year). People are on social media begging for oxygen for family members. They have an incredibly young population which seemed protective originally but they seem to be being hit hard by new variant / overcrowded living conditions / superspreader events / poor public messaging around the need for ventilation.

They would be mad to export a single vaccine at the minute. People here need to wake up and be happy that they have the luxury of complaining about things like cancelled foreign holidays.

I am from India and my mother and young adult DD are there. Things are very, very bad. I was reported on another thread here for saying that fit young people in their 30s are now dying. But several acquaintances and extended relatives have died.

To be honest, it is very hard for me to read of people refusing the vaccine here when Indians would kill for it.

It’s been an awful morning. I heard two of my friends had died- one was 37, one was 35. Both were healthy. My parents have had one vaccine. For love or for money we can’t seem to get an appointment for the second vaccine.
Friends are indeed reporting that labs are returning negative COVID results to keep the numbers down.
The infrastructure is totally overwhelmed. Meanwhile many middle class Indians are getting ‘home care.’ (Several of my friends who tested positive then paid these private services thousands of rupees). This involves storing oxygen cylinders at home. Regular CT scans (for people with mild symptoms) and what not.
The disparity between this and people literally struggling to breathe as oxygen runs out in ambulances in the nation’s capital could not be stronger.

And yes, in India this is very much a Modi made strategy. He addressed the nation and told everyone what an amazing job India had done with the vaccine programme. He’s now told individual states (India is a federal system) to sort out vaccines and the AZ manufacturer in India, the Serum Institute has just hiked up the price at which it sells vaccines.

The Delhi High Court stepped in to the oxygen situation last night to pass a few important orders. The Supreme Court (staffed by Modi’s men including the Chief Justice) has tried to overturn it this morning.

Meanwhile Amit Shah, Modi’s right hand man is holding mass election rallies in West Bengal today.

@Frequentflier, I hope that your mum and dd are able to stay safe. It's such a frightening situation.

Agree with all you say, ChaiBiskoot. Utter callousness and complacency by Modi, and the holding of rallies and religious functions is just terrible.

I hope your parents get the second vaccine. My mother has got hers somehow, and I am hoping to get my DD hers too. Don't have the luxury of worrying about the effects of AZ now; just need to get everyone in my family vaccinated.

@ChaBishkoot, I'm so very sorry about your friends. It's tragic.

I understand your frustration re the vaccine hesitancy here @Frequentflier, but there is a problem with this in India too, unfortunately. Not that there are enough vaccines at the moment anyway.

DH has spent the last few weeks trying to persuade reluctant friends and relatives to get the jab.

Of course, the current crisis will probably change how people feel about the vaccines pretty quickly.

Meanwhile Amit Shah, Modi’s right hand man is holding mass election rallies in West Bengal today.

That's disgusting. So utterly irresponsible. It shows how very little value they place on human life.

@paralysedbyinertia

I understand your frustration re the vaccine hesitancy here *@Frequentflier*, but there is a problem with this in India too, unfortunately. Not that there are enough vaccines at the moment anyway.

DH has spent the last few weeks trying to persuade reluctant friends and relatives to get the jab.

I am sorry to hear this. You are right. I have been lucky in that I have a lot of doctors in the family who have managed to convince everyone. India opens up vaccines to everyone over 18 on May 1 ( though the govt has managed to mess up that process as well) and I hope it gathers strength.

@Frequentflier and @ChaBishkoot - very sorry to hear of your losses. I'm gobsmacked that there is another rally today, that's literally insane because it will kill some of those attending.

It's very worrying for friends and colleagues in India right now. It looks like it will take considerable time and deaths for this wave to pass and meantime there will be limited healthcare for anything else as well as covid.

Having lots of doctors in the family would definitely help! DH has done a really good job of persuading a lot of people, but no progress at all with either of his sisters. I'm so worried about them. Lack of education is a big part of this, unfortunately.

The problem is India’s Covid problem is also the rest of the worlds problem, not just because of variants, because they manufacture and distribute most of the worlds vaccines, India’s population gets sick, vaccines can’t be made. The whole world need to be helping.

I think what happened with India it was spreading silently as it’s a younger population but now the numbers are so high with such a huge population the young are now getting sick.

DD has a university friend in India. Whole family have covid, grandfather in hospital.

I know it's really not easy for some people in terms of housing, income, jobs here (I've had concerns over a couple of these in the past so understanding), but on the whole we're so lucky to be in the UK. I have family who I desperately want to see, would love our lives to be the old normal, but we can hardly complain when we read about what's going on in India. So grateful that who wants a vaccine to protect themselves and their family will get them sooner than many countries and there'll be the opportunity for another dose/vaccine later in the year.

Family (in laws) middle class Indians in Pune. Mother and daughter both hospital Drs caught it last lockdown and although they recovered the treatments were very compromised even then. Last July. Mother has now stopped working altogether as she has health issues and hosp. complete chaos so she doesn't feel safe. Her elderly dh who didnt catch it last time now feels vulnerable. Daughter has moved into the hospital after being assaulted in the street by police with batons seemingly as she was a woman out during lockdown. Their day worker cleaner clearly had tb. So they paid her handsomely to go away and have since heard she has died. During first lockdown the day workers on the construction site by them slept on site as they lived out of town and had no means of getting home. Pretty soon they were starving as no pay obviously. No charities to help them either. Some middle class people slung bits of food into the site when they passed by, but this was not encouraged by the authorities. Loads of births are never registered so people can die not ever really being missed.

People should be aware that Covishield set-up was entirely funded at their own risk by the Serum Institute, it was not funded by the Indian government. Preventing trade of private manufacturing is an issue for long-term perception, but I don't think anyone can deny that India needs those vaccines most in the next few months. There is also Covaxin and Sputnik, so hopefully enough coming through to get some jabs in arms. Countries with low case rates will need to be thankful their cases are low and wait.

The poor have probably already caught and died / recovered from the disease without much medical intervention. The reason why the current wave is making the news is because it’s affecting wealthier people who are getting complications younger because most middle class Indians have really inactive and unhealthy lifestyles.

I'm Indian, living in India and things are scary.

@ChaBishkoot, can your parents try turning up at a vaccine centre as walk-ins? That's what my mother did last week when she couldn't get an appointment for her second dose. She went to a nearby hospital about an hour before the vaccinations for the day began and they accepted her without an appointment since she'd had the first shot.

It’s absolutely terrifying, and I think a lot of mc Indians are struggling because for the first time money and connections can’t help. It is a real wake up call, which I hope in the future can lead to some positive change, but for now I’m terrified for family and friends. So sorry for everyone that has already experienced losses.
There have been a few factors that I think have contributed to the current situation:

• Over-confidence in jan/feb low numbers led to a lot more activity
• Schools have been closed since last March and many professionals working for large companies are still working from home, which when combined with loosening inter-state travel and international travel restrictions has resulted in a lot of travel recently - especially around the usually travel-heavy Holi period. I know of countless people that have travelled to Goa, Kerala, Himalayas, Jaipur, Maldives, Mauritius, UAE etc.
• Testing has been patchy, and at some state borders people have been told that if they do not receive their results , not to worry it means it was negative
• Most middle class families have home help, so the close quarter contact between those travelling and those working in the home will enable much easier spread between population groups, especially considering how closely some domestic workers live to each other in slums etc.
• The limited govt. support (understandably due to financial constraints) means that many daily wagers will have to soldier on and reduces the incentive to test if they feel mildly ill. Many would be at the mercy of their employers further reducing testing likelihood
• There seems to be widespread misunderstanding (not just in India) of the importance of ventilation rather than cleaning surfaces.
• The vaccine rollout has been quite successful (in the cities at least) - which has resulted in an almost immediate boom of people hitting the malls/restaurants etc. Once their family elders have received their first vaccine.
• Bars/restaurants etc. Have been open and busy in cities
• Weddings have been ongoing (200 allowed indoors in Delhi in Feb) including with international travellers. Home quarantine has been allowed for most entrants - although those in the household that did not travel can move freely, which seems like a dangerous gap.
• It seems that there’s been an underlying level of infection that has gone undetected and has reached critical mass now
• Election rallies being held without masks with huge crowds - they make the Trump rallies look safer
• High profile figures not wearing masks etc. has helped with complacency - BCCI should have set an example and required masks to be worn at all times by those not playing in IndvEng test matches and IPL
• Govt seem to have washed their hands of their responsibility in many cases
• Non-urgent operations have been ongoing and it seems there has been limited planning for potential further surges during the quieter times
• Mainstream media have not been doing their job of thorough reporting

@Baileysforchristmas

The problem is India’s Covid problem is also the rest of the worlds problem, not just because of variants, because they manufacture and distribute most of the worlds vaccines, India’s population gets sick, vaccines can’t be made. The whole world need to be helping.

I think what happened with India it was spreading silently as it’s a younger population but now the numbers are so high with such a huge population the young are now getting sick.

Indians get age related illnesses at a younger age than the west. So things like high blood pressure cancer and diabetes etc is often discovered (if it is) from your mid 20s due to the lifestyle / diet / smoking. I imagine the only young population that have protections against this pandemic are children but even then there will be vast differences in how this impacts across social strata.