Who thinks Australia and NZ have got it right ?

[marilenagrace]

What do you think ? Do you think that keeping everyone out of the country is the right approach long term to deal with covid ? Do you wish we did that here in the UK ?

I'm in Aus and also happy, other than with the Federal government who I don't think is popular in the slightest. The liberal party was all but wiped out in WA state elections, I think the issue is the opposition lead isn't the greatest at the federal level (although I think he's miles ahead of Morrison). I don't think ScoMo's religious beliefs have much to do with him being in power, it's a very small, fundamentalist church that he belongs to, albeit one that has spread it's tentacles to the US.

And agree with the PP, the roll out could have been better, but there are areas that have been very successful (roll out to certain indigenous communities has had a much higher than expected take up rate) and as I mentioned before, if the expected supplies come by October, we should very quickly catch up.

Thing is, it’s possible to be happy with the current personal situation, whilst also seeing that we need a better road map for the coming months and years. I live in Sydney and for the past year and a bit I’ve been very happy with how this has been handled. Kids have missed no school days at all (as our school rejigged the school year to make up for missing three weeks of term), we’ve been on holiday three times within Australia, and normal life has continued very well.
However, vaccine rollout has been poor. I’m down for my Pfizer next week (am in my 40s) and it does seem to be getting better but we have been hampered by lack of supply, donating doses to countries close by in trouble (PNG), plus the advice over AZ. On a small population, if they for someone sensible in charge of the rollout, and we had adequate supply we could probably be done in 3-4 months, if not quicker than that.
But the building of quarantine facilities does concern me. The plan should be to get back to normal, not have the fear of quarantine hampering travel. We need to be in a position where we can book travel (both overseas and interstate) with no fear of lockdown, and that shouldn’t include hotel or any form of quarantine.
I would hope that by next year we’re in a position where all people who are double jabbed can travel freely, and if they’ve come from overseas they simply stay at home for 2-3 days, take a test on day 3 and 5 and that’s it.
But the main things we need to do are vaccinate the population, and also try to calm people that Covid isn’t as bad as people think. People here seem utterly terrified but with new treatments and vaccinations it’s really not that bad.

The mRNA vaccines are amazing. If 88% protection against symptomatic illness with Delta (and 96% against hospitalisation) isn’t enough to reopen the borders at the end of the year I can’t see how they ever can. It’s very strange.

Anyone in Australia or NZ have any idea how likely it is that people there will be able to travel to/from Europe this time next year?

Trying to arrange a family get together for one person’s big birthday. Another family member has cancer so this is especially important for us all.

I’m not an expert so not sure about this. Don’t you need a very high level of vaccinations in Australia to be able to open up as you have no natural immunity? What about kids/vaccine refuseres/ those that can’t have the vaccine?

We’ve done many, many things wrong in this country but we do have a decent level of immunity from actual exposure which helps when combined with the vaccine to reach herd immunity.

As far as I’ve heard, they’ll open up when everyone has been offered a vaccine - if people don’t take it then tough luck really, the population will have to get used to illness and some deaths.
The tide is already starting to turn against people who should be vaccinated who aren’t - this current Sydney lockdown is entirely due to a driver who was ferrying flight crew and was unvaccinated and then I see tonight a young nurse has worked across two hospitals, unvaccinated and has made 100 close contacts have to isolate. So so selfish.

No idea. They seem to be praised by lots of people. However, they are having another lock down in some parts. The border is easier to control that for European countries. There vaccine numbers are quite poor.

@ZZTopGuitarSolo I honestly believe not a chance next year. I just simple can't see it happening.

Or if it does, I would be prepared to have to quarantine at your cost on return in these apparent facilities that are being built.

So at some point they’ll have some sort of ‘wave’ not quite a zero Covid policy?

Well it’s interesting even with this outbreak that only one person is in ICU, so I can see us following Singapore’s idea at some point that we won’t focus on case numbers but will look at hospitalisations and deaths instead, much like we do with flu.

@Delatron for context, in Perth (Western Australia) they are in a snap lockdown due to two community cases of COVID.

Our State Leaders are closing state borders and implementing lock downs based on the threat of the delta strain.

Our Prime Minister "Scotty from Marketing", s fending off mounting pressure to reopen Australia’s borders sooner than next year, as the peak medical association joins calls for a “plan for 2022” that would see the country reopen to the rest of the world. A recent interview to me, reveals no chance of reopening border next year,

“And I’m not going to recklessly exchange places with countries in the rest of the world who are suffering from that problem where they’ve got people dying every day. That is not happening in Australia.”

Yes there will be restrictions and lockdowns for at least another year or so? I hear they’re a few days away from running out of Pfizer in Queensland.

I think that unfortunately there may be tougher times to come. But at least you’ve escaped the horror of the last year we’ve had here and had a bit of normality.

I think you’re quite a few years away from just looking at deaths rather than cases. With just 4% of the population vaccinated you’ll need to be careful for quite a long time to come and on top of every case. So won’t there always be the threat of an immediate lockdown with zero notice?

We’ve got a pretty small population though - if we actually got on with vaccinating we could be done pretty quickly. Course we need the actual vaccines but I understand there are plenty on the way. Luckily we won’t ever need to go through what the U.K. did in terms of deaths.

Yes I get that. Obviously having a smaller population is helpful. And being able to shut yourselves off.

But not everyone will have the vaccines. What about kids? So what happens to them when you open up? Or are they planning to vaccinate kids?

If a population has zero immunity then this is still a novel virus so can spread quickly if not enough are vaccinated.

Just wondering what the strategy will be in a few years when you open up.

I think the problem is there is no coherent strategy. The federal government has been playing it by ear.

"So won’t there always be the threat of an immediate lockdown with zero notice?"
Yes until the vaccine rates are higher. It's frustrating but we seem to have adapted to that being a possibility in lots of ways. With the latest NSW lockdown you could see it coming and lots of companies sent everyone home even before the smaller area lockdowns were announced.
Articles today talking about schools being prepared for remote teaching in term 3.
Most places have their plan ready to go so it all swings into place pretty quickly.

Well the U.K. isn’t vaccinating children is it? So I guess we will just let them get sick like you are and assume they’ll mainly be ok, like we do with flu every year.
I mean we’ll basically do the same as every other country that didn’t let Covid run wild - we’ll vaccinate everyone over the next few months, then open the borders to the least covidy countries initially, allow the virus to slowly spread through the adult population which will be mainly vaccinated and then over the next year as the virus dies down in the countries that currently have lots of cases (like the U.K.) then they’ll be let in too.

I agree that we’ve been prepared for lockdowns. Within one day my gym had arranged all classes into the local park, my husband has been working from home mainly for a year anyway, we can exercise outdoors as much as we like, do food shopping etc, it’s not that much of a big deal really.

@Ozgirl75 but many here have had Covid so there’s a level of natural immunity which slows spread. Many many children will have had it. Plus parents then add in vaccinations and the spread will be less.

It’s still a novel virus for your population. So will spread more quickly? But then I guess your healthcare system is better so that may not be a problem.

I don’t think you’ll have everyone vaccinated over the next few months? But amazing if you do.

And if the lockdowns aren’t really having an impact then that’s good too.

Well no one had any immunity at first. I believe the idea is to get us vaccinated and then allow it to spread - our health service is already prepared and has been for months, but we’ll never be overwhelmed with cases as we are unlikely to have a full wave through with a totally unvaccinated population.
The only thing we need to do at this stage is vaccinate, and vaccinate quicker. If we have to have the occasional lockdown while we do that I think most people are generally ok with that. Two weeks of not being able to do what we like vs potentially thousands of deaths seems like a reasonable trade.

I mean, I could be totally wrong! This current few cases could grow massively and this could be our first proper wave. I’m certainly not an expert.

[quote Tealightsandd]From tonight, half of Australians are in lockdown.

Yes a very brief (couple of weeks) proper lockdown. To quickly get on top of the small number of cases. Swift proactive action to suppress and contain.

Vaccination rollout clearly varies depending on the state, and yes it's slow compared to UK. But then there's not the urgency of the UK. Slow but steady. Two family members in their early 40s have already had their Pfizer. One fully jabbed, the other has their second next week.

Meanwhile in the UK.

www.itv.com/news/2021-06-29/covid-two-oxford-vaccines-produce-low-level-of-antibodies-against-delta-variant-study-shows[/quote]
Meanwhile in the Uk the link between transmission and death/ hospital admissions has been severed due to vaccination. A small fact you have not acknowledged.

Ok thanks @Ozgirl75 I didn’t know you had a plan to let it spread. I thought it was a zero Covid policy. But with a decent healthcare serve then that could work without overwhelming it.

It’s just interesting to see all the different countries with different strategies all at different stages in this pandemic.

@Tealightsandd

My family have been living mostly normal lives very happily for the past year Watapalava. Including no school disruption. They're very grateful to be there and not the train wreck that is the UK.

Many Australians are in no hurry to open up. They will do slowly. But the UK will be one of the last places they'll let it. Understandably, as we're a very high risk country.

Like I said. Slow but steady. Their vaccine rollout is slower than ours but they don't have our urgent need. They'll get there, and in the meantime unlike us live mostly normal lives.

Much healthier economy there too.

You or your family do not speak for the Australian good and you have no more idea about when they will open to the UK than me. I suspect it will be sooner than you or your family think. Feel free to piss off over there and join them if that’s how you feel.

It was zero Covid policy before we had the vaccine but I can’t imagine anyone thinking that would be the case forever.
I think everyone here would see that the U.K. did some things really badly and some things really well, and Australia is the same. The vaccine rollout is woefully slow due to a number of factors, but by closing borders we bought ourselves time to prepare, which we basically have. Sure, there have been some missteps but we’re dealing with an event that hasn’t happened in Australia for 100 years. Personally I can forgive some of those missteps. Obviously politics comes into it as well. No PM wants to be the one who lets Covid in - people over here are very very quick to blame the people in charge as soon as the slightest thing goes wrong and our PM knows he has an election next year which will be difficult to win if Covid races through the country.