Who thinks Australia and NZ have got it right ?

[marilenagrace]

What do you think ? Do you think that keeping everyone out of the country is the right approach long term to deal with covid ? Do you wish we did that here in the UK ?

Strategy changes every day but if the adult pop was covered and the only barrier to reopening is kids, and variants at the time don’t show a significantly different trajectory, then your kids would be allowed in with a negative test. That can change with the wind though if new variants deem this to be less than ideal.

I hope this is the case. But in the absence of an actual strategy it’s all speculation, right? We all speculate from our own viewpoints.

And if a strategy changes every day… it’s not a strategy. That’s tactics in a wild hunt for a strategy.

@Hettylala

I'm wondering how Australians generally feel about having the vaccine? A colleague's son, early 30s, lives in NSW and apparently he, his DW and none of their friends will be having the vaccine. They just don't see the point. Cases are incredibly low, they are at a low risk anyway and at the moment have no desire to travel. Is this attitude common?

I've had my first AZ, and booked in for the second. One person I know is refusing it, and another is "waiting" (?) Everyone else I know wants it ( over 50) and my 2 kids in their 20s will get it as soon as it's available for them. It's up to the individual but I'm absolutely sure for the young ones that they'll get it if they're told they can't go overseas or will have to quarantine for two weeks once borders open.

But in the absence of an actual strategy it’s all speculation, right? We all speculate from our own viewpoints.

I’m telling you viewpoints from people who are making the decisions. It’s not just one person though and not everyone agrees and things change that cause these people’s viewpoints to change.

And if a strategy changes every day… it’s not a strategy. That’s tactics in a wild hunt for a strategy.

For a strategy not to change everything else needs to be set and not change or change slightly. It seems you are looking for them to put forward a strategy that won’t change even if new information comes up with side-effects, they don’t get vaccine supplies they thought they would, if new variants pop up that change the Covid landscape, if the majority of public opinion changes (remembering it’s the Govnts job to work for the people they represent). If they had a firm strategy and all of the things mentioned changed and it became a shit strategy you can’t expect it to be kept in place. That’s what’s occurring now, too many moving parts to have something that’s not guaranteed to change in a short space of time.

I’m telling you viewpoints from people who are making the decisions. It’s not just one person though and not everyone agrees and things change that cause these people’s viewpoints to change.

Can you share where they’ve said this about children? I’ve not seen it.

For a strategy not to change everything else needs to be set and not change or change slightly.

No, a strategy that falls if one aspect of the external environment changes is a really really shit strategy. A good public policy strategy has a clear objective and a path for getting there that is sufficiently flexible to manage those external factors.

Populist public health strategy (shifting with public opinion) is often also a really really bad idea - remembering that a good government sometimes has to make decisions that are unpopular but that are based on evidence.

If they had a firm strategy and all of the things mentioned changed and it became a shit strategy you can’t expect it to be kept in place. That’s what’s occurring now, too many moving parts to have something that’s not guaranteed to change in a short space of time.

If the long-term objective changed because the fundamentals changed, then absolutely. You would change your objective and the approach for reaching it. You might even keep your objective and change the approach for reaching it in some really major way. That’s sensible policy making.

Take the Australian vaccine delivery strategy. It’s not a completely bad strategy, though implementation hasn’t been great. Have they torn up the strategy since so many factors have changed

But to be able to change it you need a stated objective and a high level plan to start with. And that’s what’s lacking, and worrying.

Sorry - hit send too soon on the vaccine strategy’s issues with supply and delivery. Those issues haven’t meant the strategy is scrapped - a lot of the fundamentals are still sound, and the goal still stands.

Okay, well if it’s lacking and worrying, it is what it is. Your opinion, which you are entitled to, is not going to change anything. At this point, even if many have this opinion it’s not going to change anything. Maybe vote accordingly at the next election and hope the other party has something you like better and hope they get in? Short of that you just have to accept the situation, you don’t have to like it.

Okay, well if it’s lacking and worrying, it is what it is. Your opinion, which you are entitled to, is not going to change anything.

Well, quite. I didn’t suggest otherwise - but a number of us on this thread have been discussing our concerns about the lack of a long term strategy and the possible impacts on us, in the context of a discussion about Australia’s strategy to date and where it goes from here.

What an odd post. I know I have to accept the situation - we all do! But we can still discuss it, good points and bad both.

Can you share what you mentioned about what decision-makers have said about Australian children abroad? Obviously a matter of some interest to me.

??? I’ve given you the current thoughts re children in a post or posts above, not going back to re-read if one or multiple. These are the current thoughts. I’ve provided the broad rationale these current thoughts are based on. As I have said, whether this stays the same or evolves into different thoughts down the track depends in a number of factors.

Also, at present current thoughts are any adult vax’d would only be considered as vax’d for entry purposes if they were vax’d with one approved in Aust. We will have more approved, not just current two but it will probably never be aligned with all vax’s out there. Head scratching on how this will be managed. If not approved here but WHO endorsed? Also age, will it be those 16 and over need to be vax’d or a lifting of this age as a young adults are not a real concern for example provided majority of pop are vax’d, again head scratching.

Sorry, I don’t understand how anyone can claim there is a strategy at all, let alone a good one! You have different government ministers contradicting themselves often within the same news cycle, no insight into the new vaccination targets and no insight into the milestones and roadmap associated with reopening the borders, nor the framework for how to assess it. Just random one liners about Keeping Australians Safe. And zero comms about kids (nothing has been said by any decision maker at all).

It’s an absolute shambles and hopefully the sh1t Australian media will actually step up for once and try to hold the government to
Account.

I’ve given you the current thoughts re children in a post or posts above, not going back to re-read if one or multiple.

Yes - I was asking which decision makers had said these things, and where, as I've not seen it.

Yes - I was asking which decision makers had said these things, and where, as I've not seen it.

Not surprisingly, much of this is discussion behind the scenes which the same people carry on outside of ‘work’ at dinners etc where others are also present.

Well Dan Tehan has come out today and said his best guess for opening the border is end of 2022. That’s something I suppose. That’ll be 3 years of being locked inside (or outside) your country - I feel very sad.

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-06/australia-s-borders-may-not-open-until-late-2022-minister-says

Not surprisingly, much of this is discussion behind the scenes which the same people carry on outside of ‘work’ at dinners etc where others are also present.

Ok - so you have a secret source of information, which you’re just choosing to share on Mumsnet. Fab. Always enjoy a bit of political gossip as long as we know that’s what it is.

I’ve worked in and around political gossip in both Australia and the UK for a long old while…

@Flyornofly at least he’s got the guts to be honest about it, but even that is still guessing right? And feels like another attempt to soften people up for worse…

It feels like every few months the goalposts get shoved six months further away. Like you, it makes me feel so sad and so isolated from my own country.

Here's an interesting read from Sydney morning herald. Interview with one of the epidemiologists who is advising the Aus government.

www.smh.com.au/national/top-epidemiologist-says-virus-outbreak-is-absolutely-inevitable-20210507-p57pth.html?btis

Also making news over here is an increase in arrivals who are fully vaccinated but still testing positive in quarantine, with a reminder of why we have quarantine in place until the local population is mostly vaccinated.

Tegan is an idiot but I suspect he is accurate here that we won't be going overseas next year.

*Tehan

I'm in NZ. Our vaccine plan has not been scrapped. It is well underway and the aim is to have the population fully vaccinated by the end of the year. I absolutely think we did the right thing. We have been living a normal life here since the initial lockdown ended almost a year ago. I am so grateful to live here right now.

And I'm hopeful we might be able to open our borders earlier than the end of 2022 but if it means staying safe for longer then I can live with that.

@Cousinit

I'm in NZ. Our vaccine plan has not been scrapped. It is well underway and the aim is to have the population fully vaccinated by the end of the year. I absolutely think we did the right thing. We have been living a normal life here since the initial lockdown ended almost a year ago. I am so grateful to live here right now.

That's what my NZ family say, that they're just so grateful to be there not here.

They worry about us so much, and The Queen all alone at Prince Phillip's funeral made my auntie properly sob, thinking about how many funerals in this country must have been like that.

My NZ cousin's got kids the same age as mine and their lives could not be more different right now.

Another cousin is about to get married and she's having all the usual things, hen trip, hundreds of guests....of course I'm missing it.

They boggle at the things they read about how we in the U.K. have been living for 13 months now

Sad to see Victoria is back in lockdown after all they've been through. And this time with no job keeper (furlough). I hope it doesn't last long.

@TattyDevine

Sad to see Victoria is back in lockdown after all they've been through. And this time with no job keeper (furlough). I hope it doesn't last long.

Thanks for that info, hadn't seen it.

Whats oz strategy get out.
They just going to go in and out lockdown for next 6months to a year?
Not let people leave or come in.
Without significant number of infections or vaccines the population has no immunity.
Have they ditched astrazeneca?
Also do we think because they never had it bad they see the vaccines as less important and not as much uptake.

Its worrying if fully vaccinated people can still transmit the virus.
Do they have lots travel between oz and India?

@3asAbird

Whats oz strategy get out. They just going to go in and out lockdown for next 6months to a year? Not let people leave or come in. Without significant number of infections or vaccines the population has no immunity. Have they ditched astrazeneca? Also do we think because they never had it bad they see the vaccines as less important and not as much uptake.

Its worrying if fully vaccinated people can still transmit the virus.
Do they have lots travel between oz and India?

I'm not sure there is an official roadmap on this.

Policymakers are pushing for citizens to get vaccinated, but this is difficult with the lack of community transmission combined with some risks, albeit small, from the vaccines, particularly the AZ. Whilst in the UK the risk is the same, the risk of getting Covid and suffering a blood clot from that, let alone all the other stuff including contributing to passing it on and rising cases/hospital admissions/deaths leading to further lockdowns means that for many, having a vaccine is a no brainer and hence the uptake in the UK is pretty good.

There are people in Oz who want the vaccine but haven't been able to access but I think things are improving.

In the meantime lockdowns will happen mainly to let contact tracers "catch up" and single out who needs to isolate, what the various tiers of exposure sites are and so on so forth. That's the main purpose of this lockdown in Melbourne. There are over a hundred exposure sites (places where people now Covid positive have been) and people are now having to get tested if they have been there.

It's true the population has little immunity, so the only way around this is vaccination which as mentioned is trickling very slowly through the population. They haven't totally ditched AZ but it's not recommended for under 50's and many over 50's are saying, I"ll wait thanks very much. They are expecting more Pfizer in quarter 4 of this year.

It's quite possible that people are starting to get fatigued by constant talk of Covid without the carnage of loads of cases and full hospitals to witness that can put it all into context that we've had here. This is often evident in people's comments on news reports on social media, many people are becoming quite sceptical of the whole thing whilst on the flip side some people have possibly a bigger fear than they should have, like it's ebola or the Black Death or something - there seems to be little in between but in reality this is probably the silent majority to be fair.

I think the world is realising that fully vaccinated people can and do get/transmit the virus and this is where it gets really complicated for Oz. Trying to convince a "zero Covid" or "elimination" type population to accept a certain amount of cases which may lead to a certain amount of deaths, will now be a political nightmare. But without that mentality I don't see how the borders can ever open, unless they make quarantine part of their permanent bio security plan. This is complicated from the point of view of tourism, people with families abroad, seasonal workers and international students etc.

There's not loads of travel between India and Oz specifically, and it was illegal to return home from India a few weeks back. That has now been lifted. And while Melbourne went into lockdown, a plane from India quietly landed in Melbourne and the passengers went into hotel quarantine. But the leak that caused this particular outbreak actually came from a person who had been in hotel quarantine in South Australia who then travelled to Melbourne, though it is the Indian variant.

I think if we had been as strict about those entering the UK, regardless of how many fewer cases there would have been, I think that there would have been a greater adherance to restrictions generally. Government being seen to not pull their weight and things such as influencers going for 'work' to Dubai does not help.