Unlikely there will be a third wave in the summer

[MiaMarshmallows]

This is what the scientists are now reporting.
Hopefully this will mean life can go back to normal quicker than we hoped.

I dont think that's correct, if I recall correctly modelling predicts a "less bad" third wave with only 20k deaths max.

Pretty sure I read it today that it is very unlikely we will see another wave.

I’ve read that too.

Well post a link then so we can all read it as would be welcome news

That sounds great do you have a source?

I can’t remember where I read it, but I know I did! I’ll see if I can find it.

It just depends on which model you look at. Small changes in the assumptions (eg % uptake of vaccination) have huge effects on the models.

It's in the Telegraph, but behind a paywall.

Autumn (rather than summer) was the prediction last time I read anything. Hopefully there'll be enough caution and vaccination (and strengthened border controls/quarantine) to avoid anything bad but at this stage we can't be complacent or drop out guard.

Autumn/Winter will likely see an increase in cases - just like with most respiratory illnesses.

In the Telegraph...I'll see if I can find it without the paywall...

Yes, it would have been the telegraph. Sorry I can’t do links.

I can't attach the Telegraph snapshots sorry

Trying again....

I'm glad they are saying this. Hardly any cases last summer, no reason why it should peak again this summer. I think if we do get another 'undulation' in the graph it will be Winter

Just hope I don't get reported and suspended again for attaching an article some might deem "misinformation"

I think the reality is that nobody really knows what will happen next. That's why there are as many different predictions as there are people predicting.

I'm cautiously optimistic at the moment. Hoping for the best but preparing for the worst.

I think we will be ok in summer
Like last summer.
I wonder if there’ll be another eat out to help out again even though there was a reported link in increase in numbers.
I guess it depends on variants.

I also saw that the ZOE Covid app was saying the same. I wonder whether it means we won’t have a wave of deaths rather than of cases. I’m hoping cases (as that obviously means not enough deaths to count as a wave as well).

It’s welcome news to know things look to be improving so much. It was only last month Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallence said a third wave was a foregone conclusion.

Autumn increase in cases will hopefully not lead to the same levels of hospitalisations/deaths with the vaccines.

Autumn/winter will be the crucial period as vaccine immunity length isn’t known and more people will be mixing indoors.

Does anyone know when we'll be updated on the immunity length for the various vaccines?

@VenusTiger

Just hope I don't get reported and suspended again for attaching an article some might deem "misinformation"

@VenusTiger Doesn't seem like misinformation to me.

The link you've attached seems consistent with the warnings.

It says scientists expect the third wave in autumn rather than summer.

I assume international travel over the coming months will bring in new strains.

@wheresmymojo

Does anyone know when we'll be updated on the immunity length for the various vaccines?

It would be good to know. Guessing no one knows for sure yet?

Interestingly 'strains' and variants amount to up to 0.3% difference to the original SARs Cov 2 virus - I'll find another link hold on...