Summer holidays abroad?

[TheRedBalloon]

I've just been reading that various Sage members have said international travel is unlikely this Summer.
We booked our holiday for the end of July to the Canaries (booked it last Summer.) Just wondering has anyone else booked for abroad and still expects to go, or is it more likely to be cancelled? DH and I have both had our first jabs and will have had both in May/June. We booked through TUI so I know we'll get a refund but the thought of going away has kept me going through lockdown!

(I know this is trivial compared with the illnesses / deaths due to the pandemic)

Vaccines are the route out, but not enough people have had them yet

This is logical, but ignores the point that if they have to be constantly updated because of "the next variant", we'll never be in a position where everyone's fully vaccinated - and anyway that would only happen in a perfect world where everyone had access to jabs, everyone got them and they all worked 100%

Unfortunately that perfect world doesn't exist, so while some would doubtless like everything to stop because yet another variant's been found, it doesn't seem very realistic to me

The way I see it is we don’t want to reverse on road map out of this but after that we’ll need boosters for new variants and there’ll be an ‘acceptable level of deaths’ (Whitty)

But if that’s not possible then I don’t know anymore other than it’s exhausting

I think the media like to doom monger as it creates revenue

Ain't that the truth

I stopped reading much of it just after the Brazilian (?) variant was said to be more lethal. From memory, it meant that 1.4 per thousand might die instead of 1.0, but right on cue the predictable headlines blared "It's 40% more deadly!!!"

No mention that this was only among those who got it or that the actual increase was tiny ... just another scary headline for another scary day

If it’s open I’m off on my holiday in August, will just self isolate if mandatory on return. I can’t bloody wait.

Oh the media just hype everything up. Next week holidays will be back on. It’s wise to ignore. They don’t know, the government don’t know, even scientists don’t. It’s an unpredictable virus.

If many countries are getting the third wave out of the way now and if the hot weather helps suppress the virus (I know we don’t know this for sure but last summer was good/cases low) then there’s room for some optimism. Oh and the vaccinations!

It does seem a bit unlikely that anyone will be travelling to Europe as soon as 17 May based on the current situation. Our government probably thought the Europeans would be more ahead of the game vaccine wise than they are.

It's a difficult one, but I think some parts of Europe and popular tourist destinations will be open for the summer holidays. Especially where people have to stay in resorts.

It would be in the government's interest to do theis. Tourism is huge business, and while not all travel companies will survive, others will push for survival.

You can come to guernsey. I know it’s not exactly long haul but we are removing all isolation requirements for travel from July 1st and have lovely beaches!

Our scientists are doing an amazing job and the the vaccine roll out has been superb.

If we bring in new variants and open up before we've vaccinated enough of the nation to make a real difference, we could sabotage the vaccine we have and find ourselves without the ground we've made.

This won't always be the case. Other countries will catch up in their vaccination programmes. Our scientists are rapidly gaining expertise in understanding how the virus changes and how it can be tweaked to ensure broad protection.

We need to think of this like measles. If we were just getting on top of a measles epidemic and there was a sizeable chunk of the population without protection, we would finish the roll out and hold off bringing new measles back. We'd get the first stage of the job done.

Can’t see it happening. Too much risk bringing new variants back to U.K. I think Europe will want us to come as tourists bring in so much money, but rates in Europe are going really high again and they haven’t barely started with vaccines

@Puzzledandpissedoff

Vaccines are the route out, but not enough people have had them yet

This is logical, but ignores the point that if they have to be constantly updated because of "the next variant", we'll never be in a position where everyone's fully vaccinated - and anyway that would only happen in a perfect world where everyone had access to jabs, everyone got them and they all worked 100%

Unfortunately that perfect world doesn't exist, so while some would doubtless like everything to stop because yet another variant's been found, it doesn't seem very realistic to me

It's nothing like as black and white as this.

For starters vaccines don't work/not work on different variants - it's a sliding scale for all of them, and with each variant the protection a vaccine offers against testing +ve, showing symptoms, serious illness and death is likely to vary - i.e. a vaccine may offer very little protection against someone testing +ve, but very high protection against serious illness and death.

The BIG question is how much protection they offer against transmission for each variant. Even if it only reduces it by 50%, that's a massive impact on R if everyone is vaccinated. It's the difference between easily being able to stop an outbreak quickly, or being unable to prevent a new wave spreading across the whole country.

However, it's FAR FAR easier to stop a variant from ENTERING the country, than it is to stop one that springs up here because in the latter case, by the time you've identified it as a variant of concern it's already spread across a whole area.

The world will need to live with coronavirus, perhaps forever. The UK doesn't need to any more than it needs to live with Measles, Polio, TB etc.

I have three holidays booked overseas this year, and I am struggling to see how any of them will happen. I have had the vaccine so it would seem okay, but the new variant is one issue I would hate to have to go back to square one because we are importing variants that are vaccine resistant. Secondly, I am not sure how it even works taking children overseas that are not vaccinated, what if they test positive and we are stuck out there, worse still if they need medical intervention.
I also can't see how we will feel comfortable in Italy if the hospitals are overwhelmed, and everything is closed.

Lastly it really boils down to being sensible. It is just too soon I think with so many unknowns. We need to keep things tightly under control here first and foremost until we are all vaccinated, then we need to be very careful about visiting countries that are also entirely vaccinated.

It feels really quite irresponsible to travel at the moment, but things change.

I think it is 50/50. I am booked late July (Greece) and will certainly go if allowed.

We will get lots of headlines in both directions between now and then as infection rates fluctuate in different countries and we learn more about the new strains and vaccine efficacy.

I am pretty optimistic, though. If Europe (especially France and Italy) is having a new wave now, they will be forced to lock down and have plenty of time to get rates down before summer. In addition, even in Europe, vaccination rates are increasing.

It takes around 3-4 months to recover from the peak, I don't think Italy or France or anywhere near it. It has only just started, so we will be lucky if they are able to open for August. That is assuming that they go into a lockdown right now and it doesn't get any worse.

We went into a lockdown more or less at the end of October (just schools open) and then full lockdown from 20th of December and won't be in a restaurant before mid May. So we are actually talking about five months. That will obliterate the tourist season. As it winds down at the end of the summer for most of Southern Europe.

Don’t we run a tourism deficit to the tune of £3bn a month or thereabouts. If so I’m not sure why our government would be that bothered if people can only holiday in the UK as it would boost the coffers. This would then free up £ to support the travel industry.

@Itsalonghaul,

I disagree. France is already locking down most of the population (to one degree or another).

So, today + 3 months means late June at worst for low case numbers. And, as I said, vaccinations are ramping up quite fast.

Another one for florida here. October and booked in Jan 2020.

Dh is very sure we will go but if there is a 2 week isolating period its a no as i work out of the home!

Keeping it all crossed

What’s going on in Florida :) I’m tempted to book myself as well!

We have a holiday booked for June which was carried over from last year . We are thinking now to move it again to 2022, and if things look better later in the summer we will book to go early Autumn at that time . We wouldn't be travelling during the school holidays .

@Thewiseoneincognito a lot of people will be like us who have a holiday carried over from 2020 which was originally booked in 2019 before most people had even heard of Covid .

thereluctant I think you are being optimistic. France are not going ahead with the full lockdown that their scientists have been pleading for since January. It only affects certain cities and 21 million people. Schools are still open everywhere. So this is not a hard lockdown, and as most of Paris escaped on trains and in cars just before midnight, the only thing the Parisian lockdown will have achieved is spreading the virus to all four corners of France as people look to move somewhere else. They are now on 40,000 cases per day. By the end of next week it will 55,000 and will continue to rocket. They need a full and proper lockdown and the longer they leave it, the worse things will get.
You are now looking at a very lengthy time with severe restrictions.

We have cancelled our holiday to France now, we go every year and had carried it over from last summer. There is no way we will be able to go now. Not a hope. Shame as dd was meeting friends there this year too.

@Itsalonghaul

You are probably right. Ilive in France and I very much fear that we will all be back to attestations and staying 1km from home to exercise soon.

The daily stats are horrific and that is after months of a 6pm curfew (just changed to 7pm) and the fact that all bars, restaurants and cafes have been closed since October.

Even if people "could" travel here - where i am relies very heavily on tourism in the summer months - I'm not really sure that they would want to (and I say that as someone who desperately wants to see their children/grandchildren who live in other countries)

We’re not out of lockdown here yet! International travel is too premature. 1st wave kick started by international travel in Feb half term 2020. Second wave by summer hols abroad 2020. Should the policy be third time lucky?!

Vaccines are a marathon not a sprint. Hopefully international travel will be a more realistic and appealing option in 2022 when vaccines here and abroad make Covid less of a disruptive force.

I can’t see anyone going abroad this summer for holidays. UK hols only I expect, and if you want to holiday in the UK, get it booked, most decent places are fully booked already for the school summer hols.