The Road Map: It’s Bollocks, Right?

[AllTheWayFromLondonDAMN]

So, I feel a bit like I’m going loopy. And I want to preface this by saying that I really hope I’m wrong. We are both secondary teachers with two small kids and this year has been an absolute bitch. Work for us has been hugely full in, whether it’s been in school or online teaching. Our infant school aged children have missed school terribly and their whole lives at this age are all about school, their little pals and their grandparents and cousins, all of whom have been off limits for months. So this has been far from fun for us and I have no desire for this to carry on (before anyone accuses me of that).

BUT this is all bollocks isn’t it? I know that numbers are going down and that we are doing really well with the vaccinations but this road map that Boris has announced.... it’s magical thinking isn’t it?!?! Less than eight weeks ago we were in dire straits, with tens of thousands of cases and more than 1500 people a day dying. This lockdown has choked those numbers down but now... throwing all the schools back in at once?! Telling us that we will be able to open up hospitality in only six weeks or so?! Saying we won’t even have to wear masks in just 16ish weeks?! REALLY? Because whilst I know that the warmer weather will make things better and of course the vaccine is making things better, it just feels a bit to me like Boris has decided that he’s bored of Covid so he’s just announcing that it’ll he done and dusted and we can just forget about it by midsummers day. Which seems.... bonkers. Bonkers when this has been going on a year now and very recently we were in huge trouble. Some areas of the country are still in huge trouble. Are other European countries talking like this? Like we can just say we have all had enough, so we are going to stop Covid?! Because if it was that easy wouldn’t we have done this a year ago?!?!

So am I the mad one who’s just being a pessimistic old boot, or is anyone else finding this whole change of tone just a bit.... weird?

Yes. I think it’s pretty bonkers too.

The vast majority of adults will have been received at least one dose.of the vaccine by June. Yes numbers of infections may go up (if we're even still testing by then), but hospitalisations and deaths will still be relatively low. As we were told, people will still get covid, but only a very small number of those will get ill enough to need hospital and a smaller number still sadly die. But there will be people that die from it in the same way that people die from the flu and other respiratory viruses.

@Whatever9999

The vast majority of adults will have been received at least one dose.of the vaccine by June. Yes numbers of infections may go up (if we're even still testing by then), but hospitalisations and deaths will still be relatively low. As we were told, people will still get covid, but only a very small number of those will get ill enough to need hospital and a smaller number still sadly die. But there will be people that die from it in the same way that people die from the flu and other respiratory viruses.

This basically. Those at the greatest risk of death have been vaccinated. How long do you want us locked down for? The road map is too slow and cautious if anything.

Perhaps read what was actually announced...

www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-sets-out-roadmap-to-cautiously-ease-lockdown-restrictions

As long as the number of deaths and hospitalizations stays low, there is no reason not to open up.
The government don't care if loads of people get cases, if those people don't have to go to hospital with it. The lockdowns are just to prevent the NHS going under.

You said it yourself look how much things have changed in few weeks. They will have changed even more in another 6 weeks, 11 weeks, 16 weeks...
The vaccines are up to 94% effective. They do reduce transmission too. And masses of people have had them. It will make a huge difference.

Yes once the majority of adults are vaccinated why do we need restrictions? It won’t matter if we get covid. Hospitalisation and death numbers will be more important than case numbers, and they will be low due to the vaccine.

Are other European countries talking like this?

None of them, bar Ireland, are in anywhere near as strict a lockdown as us at the moment despite similar (in some cases higher) numbers of infections.
My family are in Spain. Their bars and restaurants have a curfew and they can only meet with 6 other people but that’s about it. Can still socialise indoors. Around 260 infections per 100k in their area. Their leaders talking about opening up to international tourism in the spring.
Where have they said no masks in a few weeks? At today’s press conference they were saying masks would probably need to be worn into next winter.
Bar schools, nothing really changes for a couple of months. It will still be illegal to have friends and family in your house until May.

I’m finding it all extremely weird too OP. You’ve described the situation perfectly.

It’s too soon IMO.

Schools will be full of vaccinated kids, taught by mostly unvaccinated teachers going home to mostly unvaccinated parents. I can’t see how Covid won’t spread In that situation.

The number of deaths should be far far lower now vaccines are being quickly rolled out.

I would have preferred waiting till after Easter. Seems pointless to bring secondary kids back. First week will be spent messing about trying to get everyone vaccinated.
Then it’s two weeks of teaching before an Easter break.

Big risk of spread (hopefully the damn thing won’t mutate again) for not much gain.

Nope I don’t think it’s bonkers. I think it’s essential. Even if there’s wiggle room on the dates we need to be able to see the light. The difference in my mood this last 48 hours has been immense. I’m delighted.

And I’m an unvaccinated teacher going back to school on the 8th too.

I can’t wait.

The whole point of this lockdown was to bring cases down while the vaccine programme was rolled out, so that we can go back to normal. That’s what’s happening.

I do think two more weeks would prevent a lot more deaths.

The difference between this year and last year is very obviously the vaccine.

And I’m an unvaccinated teacher going back to school on the 8th too

Me too, I just feel more nervous than you. We definitely need to come out of lockdown. I would have preferred waiting another 3 weeks or re opening with rotas.

Teaching with rotas would be extremely challenging but it would help keep the R rate low.

Netherlands is opening up with 4.5% vaccinated. I would THAT is bonkers. My DH is looking on at our sensible plan here.

Are other European countries talking like this?

No. But then no other European country is vaccinating at the rate we are.

The things about exponential growth, and exponential decay, is that they happen really, really fast. If numbers are doubling every 7 days, then in 5 weeks you have multiplied by 32. If numbers are halving every 7 days, then in 5 weeks, you have 1/32 of what you started with.

We have already given the first vaccine to 1/3 of adults. In another six weeks, we could be up to 2/3. The impact of that on hospitalisations and deaths will be phenomenal.

Oh and by the way he is flummoxed at how everybody here moans and moans and moans and moans and moans. When we have one of the fastest vaccination programmes in the world. He laughs at all the moaning honestly.

The difference between this year and last year is very obviously the vaccine

Yes but better to wait 3 more weeks, so loads more people are vaccinated. The vaccines have time to work and the number of cases drops even further.

I don’t disagree with the plan so much as the timing.

The whole point of this lockdown was to bring cases down while the vaccine programme was rolled out, so that we can go back to normal. That’s what’s happening.

But we have a highly contagious variant. None of those mixing - teachers, parents, kids are vaccinated. COVID will spread again like wildfire. Why wouldn’t it? Rates will be high again very soon. Why wouldn’t they be?

Well the Netherlands is opening up now. Hairdressers and non essential shops beginning March. Schools etc. And they have 4.5% of the population vaccinated. DH just looked at a chart today and there is a slight uptick in infections. Now that’s risky if you ask me. Ours is very slow and steady.

@Dustyboots but they have said there won’t be zero Covid. Yes the rates will go up. That’s why they are waiting 5 weeks between each stage. Blimey did nobody watch Chris Whitty on Monday?

@WhenSheWasBad but that’s exactly what they ARE doing. Opening up bit by bit. We never said everybody needs to be vaccinated before we start opening up. I think we are being over cautious and actually it may even be brought forward.

Slow and steady compared to reckless isn’t much comfort.

The bit I’m worried about is the Big Bang of schools opening.

Vaccines are not 100% effective on top of the fact that under 50s ie teachers, students and parents are not vaccinated yet.

It doesn’t matter if rates go high - so long as hospitalisations and deaths are low

I also love watching all the armchair Mumsnetters here who think they know the timings better than the chief medical and science officer. Hilarious.