The Road Map: It’s Bollocks, Right?

[AllTheWayFromLondonDAMN]

So, I feel a bit like I’m going loopy. And I want to preface this by saying that I really hope I’m wrong. We are both secondary teachers with two small kids and this year has been an absolute bitch. Work for us has been hugely full in, whether it’s been in school or online teaching. Our infant school aged children have missed school terribly and their whole lives at this age are all about school, their little pals and their grandparents and cousins, all of whom have been off limits for months. So this has been far from fun for us and I have no desire for this to carry on (before anyone accuses me of that).

BUT this is all bollocks isn’t it? I know that numbers are going down and that we are doing really well with the vaccinations but this road map that Boris has announced.... it’s magical thinking isn’t it?!?! Less than eight weeks ago we were in dire straits, with tens of thousands of cases and more than 1500 people a day dying. This lockdown has choked those numbers down but now... throwing all the schools back in at once?! Telling us that we will be able to open up hospitality in only six weeks or so?! Saying we won’t even have to wear masks in just 16ish weeks?! REALLY? Because whilst I know that the warmer weather will make things better and of course the vaccine is making things better, it just feels a bit to me like Boris has decided that he’s bored of Covid so he’s just announcing that it’ll he done and dusted and we can just forget about it by midsummers day. Which seems.... bonkers. Bonkers when this has been going on a year now and very recently we were in huge trouble. Some areas of the country are still in huge trouble. Are other European countries talking like this? Like we can just say we have all had enough, so we are going to stop Covid?! Because if it was that easy wouldn’t we have done this a year ago?!?!

So am I the mad one who’s just being a pessimistic old boot, or is anyone else finding this whole change of tone just a bit.... weird?

The last ONS numbers were 1 in 115 people infected in the UK. REACT gave 1 in 200.

These figures were higher than the figures in September, when SAGE was calling for a circuit breaker.

We also have new more infectious and more virulent forms of the virus.

Getting numbers lower would be a sensible thing before opening further and the 5 weeks till after the Easter holidays would make a big difference. It would have been the obvious thing to do.

If we do go back now the government needs to fully support schools in making sure all children are tested and all children are masked and being strict about this, not pandying to U4T.

I genuinely think that if people follow the rules then schools can be open. What we can’t do is open schools and people stop following the other rules. It’s a sacrifice but one that is worth making.

I am a teacher and I have been pregnant throughout the autumn term and this spring term (now on maternity leave) schools are vectors but they will be whenever they go back. I understand the danger I have had Covid when pregnant and had a really rough time. But If people are going to get sick whatever their age then I guess we need to wait until September and everyone is vaccinated to be sure...? Key worker provision is such that you can’t rota. Half my school is in anyway!!!

I get you OP.
Theres an air of
It doesn't matter if people get Covid now. As long as the NHS doesn't go under
What happened to all the scare stodries about Long Covid? Were they just that- scare stories?
Has long covid suddenly disappeared?
So, if all the children get It, it doesn't matter? Even if it covid cause them problems when theyre old?
Because let's face it, no one kows the really long term effects of covid.

It's a strange about turn.

Obviously unless there are proper grounds for exemptions and no it is not just saying "another 2 weeks" ad infinitem.

Schools are opening up , but for 5 weeks after this date the rest will be the same as regards shops / pubs remaining shut. Many teachers and staff will get their jabs in this time. Then , by 12th April , after Easter , things will gradually open up.
It'll still be ' lockdown ' in a way with the children all in and being tested. Staff have to be tested too. It's slow and cautious and it might work this time. After mid April it might spike a bit but by then even more will be vaccinated plus many indoor venues won't be open until May which is still a while away. Sitting outside isn't as dangerous.
I think it's fair to open schools first. I understand why people are worried or skeptical but keeping children off any longer isnt feasible.
This is how I see it anyway. It's not perfect , but it seems more controlled than in the autumn plus it's still a long road to ' freedom '

This is how I see it anyway. It's not perfect , but it seems more controlled than in the autumn plus it's still a long road to ' freedom

How is it more controlled than autumn? We have masks in secondary. And unreliable tests. Rates are higher than they were in September.
Yes, the vaccine program is move at great pace. But most parents, teachers and school
children will still not be vaccinated by May.

I’m struggling to see the much more controlled.

It's slow and cautious and it might work this time

Millions of people mixing in classrooms (and then going home). Is not slow and cautious. I’m hoping it works though.

In response to a pp about long covid - yes I suspect there was an element of scare mongering going on. The government (quite rightly) needed to keep the public complying with the restrictions. I’m not denying long covid exists, but post viral fatigue has always been a thing and I do think they over egged long covid at a time when they needed to maintain compliance.
Anyone still not vaccinated by 8 March really had an extremely low risk from covid and I agree with the decision to send schools back.

Oh bore off OP and anyone else who wants to stay locked down for the next 20 years. We’re getting back to normal life whether you like it or not!

@likeamillpond

I get you OP. Theres an air of It doesn't matter if people get Covid now. As long as the NHS doesn't go under What happened to all the scare stodries about Long Covid? Were they just that- scare stories? Has long covid suddenly disappeared? So, if all the children get It, it doesn't matter? Even if it covid cause them problems when theyre old? Because let's face it, no one kows the really long term effects of covid.

It's a strange about turn.

What are you talking about saying ‘it’s a strange about turn’? Lockdown has always been about prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed, not about stopping people getting covid! The groups which are most likely to be hospitalised with the virus have been vaccinated so the pressure on the NHS is easing. Schools going back will cause an increase in infection but shouldn’t cause an increase in hospitalisations. However, this is why schools are the only thing being re-opened and there is the 5 week gap to monitor the effects. Did you listen to Chris Whitty on Monday?

Everyone I know irl feels that the route map is well thought out and reasonable.

Well, if people are going to be negative then we will be lockdown forever I'm afraid..

Vaccines, spring and a sensible timetable re increasing social contact- all reasons for optimism.

As is the use of lateral flow testing in schools. Whist an individual test may feel like a drop in the ocean, when used regularly by groups, they really can reduce spread.

And general public who are worried about the effects of schools reopening and increased social contacts can always use the many lateral flow test centres set up by local authorities.

It's a good plan - cautious and realistic but hopeful. The dates are advisory and rely on some quite strict conditions being met. If people are taking June 21st to mean "all restrictions are definitely lifted" then that's their problem if they aren't and they're disappointed, because no one in government has actually said that.

Covid will still be around in June, people will get it, and people will die. But not at a rate that means hospitals can't cope, which is the whole point.

As time moves on, more people will be vaccinated and more people will be infected and recover and have antibodies. The weather will get warmer. People will spend more time outdoors. What's so difficult to understand?

The return to school is too soon, the rest of his plan is too cautious.

BUT understandable as bojo has been a complete idiot with some of his predictions and subsequent actions, so now he's swung too far the other way.

The sooner people realise and accept that the government does not give a shiny shit if you, on an individual level, catch COVID the better. They don't care who gets it, as long as you don't take up an unnecessary hospital bed. We will never get to 0 covid.

I don't think it's bonkers at all. I think it would be more bonkers to keep being locked up when the most vulnerable to this illness will have been offered at least their first does of the vaccine.

This thread proves to me that some really are enjoying the restrictions. Won't be told any different, some are dreading going back to reality. Well this lockdown has been hell for many of us and could never go on forever. We've got to get on with it now.

dose*

This thread proves to me that some really are enjoying the restrictions. Won't be told any different, some are dreading going back to reality

Erm no. I’ve also hated lockdown. Not a single person on this thread has suggested never locking down, or even waiting till June.

Wait 3 weeks is not the same as “never locking down.”
I’m well aware the government don’t care about individuals. They vaccinated healthcare staff so they could keep working.

Schools don’t function well with high staff sickness. Government really should have factored that into their plans. We’ve had staff members off for a month with Covid. When they came back they were on a reduced timetable.

Totally agree @Cottoncandy01. No government can care about the individual, it's about the population/society as a whole. There will always be winners and losers. All a government can do is weigh up the overall risk to the country and make decisions based on that - and this decision comes what is the level at which the NHS can cope with returning freedoms and opening up the economy. As callous as it sounds, of course thousands more people will continue to die this year, especially once schools go back and things start to reopen - but it will be at a number that (like flu every winter) society is more comfortable with and that doesn’t make our healthcare system collapse.

Up to this week I’ve thought that almost every decision Boris and co made was too late or badly wrong - but this one I honestly think they’ve got right, in pace, approach, and tone.

@Cottoncandy01

The sooner people realise and accept that the government does not give a shiny shit if you, on an individual level, catch COVID the better. They don't care who gets it, as long as you don't take up an unnecessary hospital bed. We will never get to 0 covid.

I don't think it's bonkers at all. I think it would be more bonkers to keep being locked up when the most vulnerable to this illness will have been offered at least their first does of the vaccine.

This thread proves to me that some really are enjoying the restrictions. Won't be told any different, some are dreading going back to reality. Well this lockdown has been hell for many of us and could never go on forever. We've got to get on with it now.

Agree. It worries me how many people expect to be able to hide from covid forever. It has never been about stopping us getting it!

@toolatetooearly

It's a good plan - cautious and realistic but hopeful. The dates are advisory and rely on some quite strict conditions being met. If people are taking June 21st to mean "all restrictions are definitely lifted" then that's their problem if they aren't and they're disappointed, because no one in government has actually said that.

Covid will still be around in June, people will get it, and people will die. But not at a rate that means hospitals can't cope, which is the whole point.

I agree with your first paragraph- but many people seem to have missed or ignored the "small print" in the plan which makes clear that the dates are estimates/advisory only.

The newspapers and media haven't helped - the day after the roadmap was announced, they were full of idiotic "countdowns" of the number of days to eg pubs opening etc. So it is hardly surprising that people are losing sight of the "data not dates" message.

Personally I think it will all depend on whether new variants take hold/can be addressed by vaccines.

Theres an air of It doesn't matter if people get Covid now. As long as the NHS doesn't go under

This was always the case. Hence the original slogan "stay home > protect the NHS > save lives".

It is also the only reason I (and many others) support the lockdowns. Ensuring emergency health care is available for all is a good enough reason for the economic, education and mental health problems caused by lockdown. But in all other circumstances, the harms done by lockdown vastly outweigh the benefits.

@WhenSheWasBad the OP literally said the road map was bonkers. And cited every part of it, including decisions that are 16 weeks away. And there are some on here who have completely agreed. How does that sound like someone who wants to get out of lockdown? Doesn't particularly to me.

[quote Cottoncandy01]@WhenSheWasBad the OP literally said the road map was bonkers. And cited every part of it, including decisions that are 16 weeks away. And there are some on here who have completely agreed. How does that sound like someone who wants to get out of lockdown? Doesn't particularly to me.[/quote]
Fair point. But my reading of the op was mostly that Step 1 (opening schools as normal). Fucks up the rest of the road map. Which it could well do.

@Dustyboots

The whole point of this lockdown was to bring cases down while the vaccine programme was rolled out, so that we can go back to normal. That’s what’s happening.

But we have a highly contagious variant. None of those mixing - teachers, parents, kids are vaccinated. COVID will spread again like wildfire. Why wouldn’t it? Rates will be high again very soon. Why wouldn’t they be?

that doesnt matter unless they all end up in hospital, which they wont!

Having read the minutes of the Sage meeting from the end of January - (where it is modelled that full opening of schools would increase rate to between 1 & 1.5), it seems the roadmap had taken that as the starting point.

Whilst schools go back: to allow that to happen, many others are being asked to stay in our current lockdown, with only minor changes (such as outdoor only meetings from 29 March and only outdoor eating/socialising/individual gym visits from the 12 April), to mitigate the effects of the return to school.

If I have to delay going back to indoor group exercise, eating indoors in a restaurant, going on holiday with another family etc etc for a few more months because I want my children back at school, then that is a trade off I'm willing to make - but in reality that is the trade off that the Government is asking a whole load of people who have no stake in my children's education to make.

And they are being asked to do it, because the long term effects of children being out of school is devastating, mentally, socially and academically, and this effect is most pronounced for those who are vunerable in someway.

So, everyone else is being asked to just hold tight, whist we give our kids a chance at regaining some sense of normality.