The Road Map: It’s Bollocks, Right?

[AllTheWayFromLondonDAMN]

So, I feel a bit like I’m going loopy. And I want to preface this by saying that I really hope I’m wrong. We are both secondary teachers with two small kids and this year has been an absolute bitch. Work for us has been hugely full in, whether it’s been in school or online teaching. Our infant school aged children have missed school terribly and their whole lives at this age are all about school, their little pals and their grandparents and cousins, all of whom have been off limits for months. So this has been far from fun for us and I have no desire for this to carry on (before anyone accuses me of that).

BUT this is all bollocks isn’t it? I know that numbers are going down and that we are doing really well with the vaccinations but this road map that Boris has announced.... it’s magical thinking isn’t it?!?! Less than eight weeks ago we were in dire straits, with tens of thousands of cases and more than 1500 people a day dying. This lockdown has choked those numbers down but now... throwing all the schools back in at once?! Telling us that we will be able to open up hospitality in only six weeks or so?! Saying we won’t even have to wear masks in just 16ish weeks?! REALLY? Because whilst I know that the warmer weather will make things better and of course the vaccine is making things better, it just feels a bit to me like Boris has decided that he’s bored of Covid so he’s just announcing that it’ll he done and dusted and we can just forget about it by midsummers day. Which seems.... bonkers. Bonkers when this has been going on a year now and very recently we were in huge trouble. Some areas of the country are still in huge trouble. Are other European countries talking like this? Like we can just say we have all had enough, so we are going to stop Covid?! Because if it was that easy wouldn’t we have done this a year ago?!?!

So am I the mad one who’s just being a pessimistic old boot, or is anyone else finding this whole change of tone just a bit.... weird?

There won’t be any more lockdowns imo ever. There might be different strains but that’s the world we live in. We take risks daily.

From the tone of BJ I think it’s at the point now where it’s accepted there will be deaths (like flu)

@lunapeace err... that’s what I mean.
The point of the lockdown was for cases to go down while the vaccine is rolled out and then we can go back to normal. That’s what is happening... cases have gone down, millions have been vaccinated and Boris’s roadmap means we can hopefully go back to normal due to the vaccine roll out.
What did I say that you’re disagreeing with?

But we are vaccinating people really quickly and the vaccine is working, and people will still choose to wear masks.

@UmbilicusProfundus Great typo

Honestly it’s the same discussion on here every night with the same posters who aren’t prepared to look at the actual data and science.

Thanks to all that replied- I’ve never had a Mumsnet threat get so heated so quickly!

I just wanted to reiterate to anyone saying I’m a nervous nelly or whatever, I’m not saying I want to remain in lockdown or I like lockdown or whatever is being inferred from my original post.... I’ve hated lockdown, think it’s been shit and I can’t wait to be back in a bustling school full of kids and in a pizza express having a bottle of plonk and a pollo pesto with my best friend.... we are a teacher household who live by the rhythms of terms and exams and coursework, this year has been massively unsettling.

BUT what I am saying is I’m just a) a bit concerned about this schools Big Bang fucking everything up and taking down the unvaccinated population and making it all worse again (because everyone in school is basically still vulnerable to the disease) and b) that Boris has just decided to “cheer everyone up” with a massive change of tone which, whilst hugely morale boosting, has the potential to go tits-up and disappoint lots of people.

Absolutely willing to accept that I don’t understand the science of the vaccines though and that my caution is misplaced. I hope I look back at this thread in June and think “that was miserable, I was so wrong” whilst sitting in my local air-conned pizza express, chugging on a bottle of Chardonnay and eating dough balls.

BUT what I am saying is I’m just a) a bit concerned about this schools Big Bang fucking everything up and taking down the unvaccinated population and making it all worse again (because everyone in school is basically still vulnerable to the disease) and b) that Boris has just decided to “cheer everyone up” with a massive change of tone which, whilst hugely morale boosting, has the potential to go tits-up and disappoint lots of people

I’m with you Op. People have said the reopening in cautious. Step one means millions of unvaccinated people will be mingling in very small rooms. Then going home to millions more unvaccinated people.

That will increase the spread of Covid. The more Covid there is the more random mutations and the bigger the chance of another mutation.
Virtually no one wants lockdown forever, but a few more weeks would make a huge difference.
The prime minister has taken a gamble. I’m hoping it pays off but I’m worried it won’t.

Agree. It's bonkers.

Especially all children back at same time with masks and tests optional. So many people still unvaccinated.

Where have they said no masks in a few weeks? At today’s press conference they were saying masks would probably need to be worn into next winter

That's not what was said. It was said masks may be needed next winter.

They are completing a review of social distancing before the last step. It is likely that over the summer non pharmaceutical intervention will be personal choice, but it is likely we may need masks next winter.

Not that we will be wearing them all summer and into winter.

That's not what was said. It was said masks may be needed next winter

They will be reviewing the wearing of masks in secondary schools after the Easter holiday.

@Dustyboots

It doesn’t matter if rates go high - so long as hospitalisations and deaths are low

Rates will go high. How then are hospitalisations and deaths going to stay low? Nothing has changed amongst the school community and families. We’re not vaccinated yet.

Because there aren't a lot in that demographic who are likely to be hospitalised with it. Those under 60 with conditions that put them at risk will have been offered a vaccine by then.

Mutations are normal in viruses and mutation doesn’t equal more deadly. The flu mutates constantly. I remember some hand-wringing on here a few years ago as Australia had had a bad flu season and a healthy child had died and the vaccine that year didn’t cover the Australian strain and...and....nothing happened.

You do realise a lot of what we have heard and seen on the news has been hugely exaggerated in order to maintain control?!

Now the tone will change to get everyone back out again.

Bottom line is we do have to live with this, so whilst it wil not be plain sailing or easy, life can move forward.

I also think that a lot of what people think the roadmap says comes from the media which does give the impression of dates set in stone
The actual guidance is more reserved about how it will work

@Chatterbox1987

I've said this before that soon, testing will become obsolete... they may well do it to find new variants etc. However the number of positives will be irrelevant once hospitalizations and deaths are at an acceptable level. (There will be an acceptable level of death as horrible as that sounds).

Even if they are still testing and reporting numbers etc all that will happen is that the death rate of the virus will drop dramatically.... once it is down to a level again that is acceptable, we will be free to do as we please.

^THIS 100%

Mutations are normal in viruses and mutation doesn’t equal more deadly

Didn’t say it did, just that it might evade the vaccine.
The more Covid in society the more mutations. Would have been better to wait a few weeks.

@AllTheWayFromLondonDAMN

As well as the vaccines there is also immunity at play in populations now. At least 25 - 30% of the population are believed to have had it and will therefore have some Immunity to the disease. This will also make a difference as it can't "rip through" environments where many people already have immunity. This, along with the 30% of people with vaccination immunity (I appreciate there will be some overlap) and seasonality on top as we head into summer makes me feel very optimistic. We're in a much stronger position than September.

@Cloudbeeb what are you talking about? Group 6 in my area won’t be vaccinated until the end of March (?) at the earliest as gp hubs are running behind. DH (late 40’s, group 6) goes back to teaching on 8th March. So there will definitely be group 6 unvaccinated teachers in small unventilated crammed rooms with millions of unvaccinated kids. No one cares because there is now a hospital bed available for him to die nice and quietly in.

I totally agree with @Remmy123 - what’s really happening is that the narrative and tone from the government ha a changed to get us all spending again.

[quote Lemons1571]@Cloudbeeb what are you talking about? Group 6 in my area won’t be vaccinated until the end of March (?) at the earliest as gp hubs are running behind. DH (late 40’s, group 6) goes back to teaching on 8th March. So there will definitely be group 6 unvaccinated teachers in small unventilated crammed rooms with millions of unvaccinated kids. No one cares because there is now a hospital bed available for him to die nice and quietly in.

I totally agree with @Remmy123 - what’s really happening is that the narrative and tone from the government ha a changed to get us all spending again.[/quote]
Group 6 is now open to book online, has he booked into a hub?

Ah so it’s just another ‘don’t open schools’ thread in disguise.
There has been plenty of them.

@WhenSheWasBad

Mutations are normal in viruses and mutation doesn’t equal more deadly

Didn’t say it did, just that it might evade the vaccine.
The more Covid in society the more mutations. Would have been better to wait a few weeks.

What will be different in a few weeks?

What I'm struggling to work out is the vaccine programme. I think that getting out of this at the pace that Boris sets out very much relies on the vaccine continuing to be rolled out, with a high uptake.

So, with that in mind.....there's around 17 million (roughly) who have had their first vaccination. Around 600,000 who have had their second vaccination. They're giving second vaccinations out at an average rate of 16,000 per day (but some days this increases to 30,000 per day). Let's be kind and assume 30,000 second vaccinations every day are given out......that's only 2.7 million vaccinations in the next three months. We need to achieve 16 million second vaccinations in the next three months......how the holy hell are they going to cover the 13 million dose shortfall???

And it does concern me because no-one seems to know how long/how much protection is available from only having one vaccine. Or what happens if it's significantly delayed beyond 12 weeks. The vaccine roll out so far has been bloody amazing, but I'm genuinely worried that it's going to go tits up. Maybe I'm missing something, but I can't see the numbers stacking up here.....

@ExhaustedFlamingo

What I'm struggling to work out is the vaccine programme. I think that getting out of this at the pace that Boris sets out very much relies on the vaccine continuing to be rolled out, with a high uptake.

So, with that in mind.....there's around 17 million (roughly) who have had their first vaccination. Around 600,000 who have had their second vaccination. They're giving second vaccinations out at an average rate of 16,000 per day (but some days this increases to 30,000 per day). Let's be kind and assume 30,000 second vaccinations every day are given out......that's only 2.7 million vaccinations in the next three months. We need to achieve 16 million second vaccinations in the next three months......how the holy hell are they going to cover the 13 million dose shortfall???

And it does concern me because no-one seems to know how long/how much protection is available from only having one vaccine. Or what happens if it's significantly delayed beyond 12 weeks. The vaccine roll out so far has been bloody amazing, but I'm genuinely worried that it's going to go tits up. Maybe I'm missing something, but I can't see the numbers stacking up here.....

They’ve said the vaccination programme will ramp up massively from March.

@Cloudbeeb he’s not eligible to book through the nhs “book a coronavirus vaccine” link, we’ve tried. GP won’t discuss it and say “wait your turn”.

Agree OP. Can't wait for normality, but it'd be infuriating to have that jeopardised for the sake of a few more weeks, Starting rhe reopening with the biggest unvaccinated demoraphic seems remarkable.

@MrBullinaChinaShop

But it's going to have to increase by at least six times as much - if not more. That's a massive, massive leap. It just doesn't seem feasible.

This whole vaccine roll out has been just bloody brilliant, I'm so impressed with it. I'm just worried they're going to screw things up by pushing too hard to get so many first vaccinations done. If they can manage it, then marvellous but the figures seems such a long way off at the moment....I guess we'll just see over the coming weeks.