Why are people determined to believe the absolute worst?

[TheDailyCarbunkle]

As of Jan 21st 4,717 people in England between the ages of 0-59 died with coronavirus. That includes people with severe health conditions who are very vulnerable to all illnesses. Considering there are about 50.6 million people in that age group in England, that number represents 0.0093% of that age group. To put that number in context, in 2018 27,198 people under the age of 64 died of pneumonia and influenza (which are categorised together by the ONS) - conditions that most people don't worry very much about, especially if they are generally healthy.

In Sweden, the number of deaths of people under 70, as of Feb 2021, is 1,113. Again that includes clinically vulnerable people. It represents about 0.013% of that section of the population. That's with schools open for younger people the whole time, shops and restaurants open, hairdressers open, gatherings of up to 50 people allowed etc etc.

All over the world, no matter what the mitigation measures have been, the deaths of under 70s have been low, especially when compared to other respiratory illnesses like pneumonia and flu. The threat to people under 70, even people who are clinically vulnerable, is not high. The threat to people with no illnesses is extremely low, so low that at times the ONS has had to stop reporting it.

So why do people still believe they're in huge danger?

@thefallthroughtheair

Thank you OP for a great post. It's been a 'perfect storm' I think. The world is very polarised and that is exacerbated by SM which has fuelled the fires of identity politics and a very black and white approach to everything. So with Covid, if you're not 'for the saving of just one life' youre a killer and a conspiracist. As life gets 'easier' in the global North, it also gets harder I think to find value, so we buy stuff and do stuff to try to get a quick fix but fundamentally there s perhaps a sense of anomie or lack of 'big' purpose. So with Covid, we've clapped and 'protected the vulnerable' and worn masks and all for a higher purpose:we are 'saving lives'. We are used to 'controlling' - nature generally and life itself; we've been increasingly divorced from death with the elderly less and less likely to be in multi generational households yet living longer and longer. So every death is unnecessary and must be stopped at all costs. We and our political systems are short-termist. So deaths from Covid matter more because they are now. Others don't because they are in the future. All of these things put together create a febrile and reactive atmosphere. There was concern and the concern was heightened by SM. There was Trump talking gobbledigook; there were many on the progressive left who were sick to the back teeth of the move almost everywhere towards alt-right 'fake news'. So things moved quickly from 'this is concerning; we should look at our pandemic plans and follow them in a thoughtful manner' to panic. It's never good to ditch plans at the point of panic - that's exactly when plans should be followed. They can be changed as evidence changes but the response always needs to be measured. That didn't happen, the whole thing became a rollercoaster; a lot of people don't have a great grasp of maths, data etc and aren't in a position to understand or even look into the context of headlines, so we've boosted ignorance and created fear and now it's really hard to turn the leviathan round.

Add into that being isolated from from friends, family and communities. Other than going for a walk, social media is the only contact with the "outside world", and that becomes more of an echo chamber.

@AlexaShutUp

The thing is, while I accept that my fears about dying from COVID are irrational, I see just as much fear in others around the impact of lockdown on mental health, the damage to a lost generation, or the terrible impact on children of having to wear masks in school. Sure, there will be significant consequences for a very small number of people (just as covid will kill a small number of younger people), but the vast majority of us will get through this. The scaremongering is not only in one direction.

Well said. It’s just as bad on the other side. School closures for two months are destroying our children’s future. Lockdown is causing a wave of suicides. They’ll force us to be wearing masks forever. Etc.

A lot of people are struggling to properly assess the risks of both the virus AND the response to the virus.

Vulnerable people under 70 aren't just worried about death. There's also the risk of serious illness and disability and exacerbation of existing conditions, possibly reducing both length and quality of life.

The over 70s do have a much higher risk of death as well as serious illness, and are right to be cautious: I don't see why they are expected to feel reassured that younger people have had fewer deaths?

The thing is, while I accept that my fears about dying from COVID are irrational, I see just as much fear in others around the impact of lockdown on mental health, the damage to a lost generation, or the terrible impact on children of having to wear masks in school.

Yes, but it feels like no one gives a damn about the second lot (and I would add to your list, people terrified of losing their jobs and their homes and wondering how on earth they’re going to put food on the table for their kids). But Covid is more important than all of that.

Covid is an emergency. It’s a global pandemic. There is no version of this story where no one is negatively impacted - be it those who get sick, or those who lose jobs or school time to limit the spread of the virus. There is pain all around.

Too many MN posters think there’s some outcome where the virus doesn’t spread out of control and also everyone can work/study/socialise as normal. There is not. Putting groups against each other is not helpful and comparing suffering isn’t either.

@thefallthroughtheair

Thank you OP for a great post. It's been a 'perfect storm' I think. The world is very polarised and that is exacerbated by SM which has fuelled the fires of identity politics and a very black and white approach to everything. So with Covid, if you're not 'for the saving of just one life' youre a killer and a conspiracist. As life gets 'easier' in the global North, it also gets harder I think to find value, so we buy stuff and do stuff to try to get a quick fix but fundamentally there s perhaps a sense of anomie or lack of 'big' purpose. So with Covid, we've clapped and 'protected the vulnerable' and worn masks and all for a higher purpose:we are 'saving lives'. We are used to 'controlling' - nature generally and life itself; we've been increasingly divorced from death with the elderly less and less likely to be in multi generational households yet living longer and longer. So every death is unnecessary and must be stopped at all costs. We and our political systems are short-termist. So deaths from Covid matter more because they are now. Others don't because they are in the future. All of these things put together create a febrile and reactive atmosphere. There was concern and the concern was heightened by SM. There was Trump talking gobbledigook; there were many on the progressive left who were sick to the back teeth of the move almost everywhere towards alt-right 'fake news'. So things moved quickly from 'this is concerning; we should look at our pandemic plans and follow them in a thoughtful manner' to panic. It's never good to ditch plans at the point of panic - that's exactly when plans should be followed. They can be changed as evidence changes but the response always needs to be measured. That didn't happen, the whole thing became a rollercoaster; a lot of people don't have a great grasp of maths, data etc and aren't in a position to understand or even look into the context of headlines, so we've boosted ignorance and created fear and now it's really hard to turn the leviathan round.

What a great post on many levels.

So with Covid, if you're not 'for the saving of just one life' youre a killer and a conspiracist
Now add in selfish, as said by the Queen.
I like the monarchy on some levels, but really think the Queen shouldnt have said what she said.

Project Fear OP

I'm totally sick of this idiocy - the media are to blame of course.

"As of Jan 21st 4,717 people in England between the ages of 0-59 died with coronavirus."

I don't know if that figure is correct, but let's assume it is.

That figure is low BECAUSE of the measures taken to control the virus - at peak, HALF of hospital admissions were in the

My concern is that until recently with newly developed vaccines there was no life changing medical intervention. This is therefore unlike influenza which has been monitored and vaccinated for some time controlling some of its health impacts. Covid is particularly challenging because of the contagious ease of inadvertent asymptomatic mutating super spreading. The actual fatalities per capita rate globally is indeed remarkably low given its widespread economic devastation. Much of this closing off of many economic activities to request hibernation safety is perhaps much to do with the higher number of Covid patients with ongoing undetermined life long post Covid syndrome disabilities. It is perhaps this asymptomatic silent super spreading and larger numbers of long Covid sufferers that is as much the main medical impact as the smaller per capita fatalities themselves. It is estimated that a large minority of the UK population may have already been infected with Covid but mostly recovered survivors or with ongoing disease. There has not been another disease in recent memory that has infected many high profile public figures and that adds to the overall dangerous picture when many have either passed away because of Covid or luckily survived this disease.