Why are people determined to believe the absolute worst?

[TheDailyCarbunkle]

As of Jan 21st 4,717 people in England between the ages of 0-59 died with coronavirus. That includes people with severe health conditions who are very vulnerable to all illnesses. Considering there are about 50.6 million people in that age group in England, that number represents 0.0093% of that age group. To put that number in context, in 2018 27,198 people under the age of 64 died of pneumonia and influenza (which are categorised together by the ONS) - conditions that most people don't worry very much about, especially if they are generally healthy.

In Sweden, the number of deaths of people under 70, as of Feb 2021, is 1,113. Again that includes clinically vulnerable people. It represents about 0.013% of that section of the population. That's with schools open for younger people the whole time, shops and restaurants open, hairdressers open, gatherings of up to 50 people allowed etc etc.

All over the world, no matter what the mitigation measures have been, the deaths of under 70s have been low, especially when compared to other respiratory illnesses like pneumonia and flu. The threat to people under 70, even people who are clinically vulnerable, is not high. The threat to people with no illnesses is extremely low, so low that at times the ONS has had to stop reporting it.

So why do people still believe they're in huge danger?

@Dustyboots

That includes people with severe health conditions who are very vulnerable to all illnesses

Perhaps we are one of those people OP? Or perhaps we have children that are.

Perhaps you are. If you are, are you equally worried about flu and pneumonia, which kills five times the amount of people that covid has killed?

You are right, OP. People are not very good at quantifying risk. I include myself in that. I still worry that I will die of COVID even though, rationally, I know that the chances of this are vanishingly small. I know it isn't rational, but I can't just switch off the fear.

For me, it's connected to guilt/shame about my weight, and feeling that it would be my own fault if I did die of covid - I would have put myself at risk. I've lost loads of weight since last March, brought down my BMI and therefore reduced my vulnerability, but the fear still hangs around anyway. It plays into my biggest fear of all, which is of leaving my dd without a mother.

I try very hard not to let my fear impact on others. Most people don't even know I'm worried. I support schools going back and I am really happy for dd because it will be much better for her. But that nagging fear inside doesn't go away.

I've looked at the stats, I've done the risk calculators. I know that my risk is actually very low, but rational thought isn't always a very good way of countering irrational fears, as any phobic person will tell you.

Mumsnet seems to be full of irrational people who I genuinely believe need some form of help after all this

For sure. The sheer amount of people who were simply unable to cope with being at home was quite shocking to me. Many of them have said that they think the mental health problems caused to them by being at home will span for decades to come. Although given the number of posters who believe severe depression can be solved with hugs I wouldn't imagine they will be seeking professional help anytime soon.

@Timbucktime

Some people are addicted to fear like an alcoholic to alcohol

Agree.

@Haffiana

That's not the fear I'm talking about. The fear I'm talking about, which many people have, is that they themselves, personally, will die of covid. It's a very commonly expressed fear on MN and I know a few people who believe they will definitely die if they get it. One of the arguments against children going back to school is that teachers are worried that they will get covid and die (I am aware they are also worried about passing covid on to others and about increasing rates in the community - those are not the fears I'm talking about).

You are just 'othering'.

A few people are irrationally afraid or unintelligent.

A few people still think that the danger of dying from covid is why we locked down.
A few people think that it is all lies and misinformation and done to control us and that flu is more dangerous.

Most people are not like that.

Ok. I'm not sure what point you're making.

My question is why are some people so convinced that there's a high danger of they themselves personally dying when the evidence is that the chance is not high at all, even if you are clinically vulnerable?

Most of us don't believe we're in huge danger.
I worry a little about Coronavirus because some of the people I know had it as a bad flu (others had a very light illness). I haven't had anything like that for over twenty years so just being ill and bed bound is itself a worry if you live alone. I also worry slightly about getting long Covid.
I worry a bit about giving it to other people as well and of course I worry about being fined or arrested. Not many under 60s are worried about getting a serious version of Covid, we're worried about the pandemic in general and about the capacity of the health service.

Perhaps you are. If you are, are you equally worried about flu and pneumonia, which kills five times the amount of people that covid has killed?

Are you actually unable to understand that it has nothing to do with death rates?

@AlexaShutUp

You are right, OP. People are not very good at quantifying risk. I include myself in that. I still worry that I will die of COVID even though, rationally, I know that the chances of this are vanishingly small. I know it isn't rational, but I can't just switch off the fear.

For me, it's connected to guilt/shame about my weight, and feeling that it would be my own fault if I did die of covid - I would have put myself at risk. I've lost loads of weight since last March, brought down my BMI and therefore reduced my vulnerability, but the fear still hangs around anyway. It plays into my biggest fear of all, which is of leaving my dd without a mother.

I try very hard not to let my fear impact on others. Most people don't even know I'm worried. I support schools going back and I am really happy for dd because it will be much better for her. But that nagging fear inside doesn't go away.

I've looked at the stats, I've done the risk calculators. I know that my risk is actually very low, but rational thought isn't always a very good way of countering irrational fears, as any phobic person will tell you.

I really appreciate your answer @AlexaShutUp - you've explained it very well. I'm sorry you're finding it so hard. Is there someone in real life you can talk to about it?

Part reaction to campaign which helped lockdown work

A bit of reacting to a very small risk, but one with high amount of attention

@Haffiana

Perhaps you are. If you are, are you equally worried about flu and pneumonia, which kills five times the amount of people that covid has killed?

Are you actually unable to understand that it has nothing to do with death rates?

I'm responding to another poster @Haffiana who is worried about death rates. Could you please read the posts so I don't have to explain things to you?

Because some people love the misery and love dragging others down to their sad level. They can't wait to hop on to any thread about the virus and spread their misery and gloom. It has been so from the get go. It's almost as if they revel in the negativity.

No idea OP.
More people will die of side effects of lockdowns than the virus, of that I’m sure.

I could but it would be far easier if you read the actual article and tried to understand it.

@alpenguin

I could but it would be far easier if you read the actual article and tried to understand it.

You do realise I'm not quoting the article directly? That article is about survival rates, which is not what I'm talking about. Unless you have an actual problem you want to bring up, I'm going to assume you're talking through your arse.

I’ve had Covid, it was mild and didn’t kill me. However I need a kidney transplant and because the NHS was overwhelmed with the virus they are all cancelled and the list is longer than ever. Covid didn’t kill me, but waiting for a transplant might.
I am young with 2 small children, work for the NHS myself and you wouldn’t know I was sick to look at me. The threat to health from Covid is real, just not necessarily directly from the virus.

Because of the past.

Thank you @TheDailyCarbunkle. I don't talk about it much tbh - a bit to my closest friend, but I don't want to become a bore about it! Never to my family as they are actually in the higher risk/shielding groups, and it would be unhelpful.

I'm ok, and my anxiety about it is mostly under control. I am at least aware that it's irrational, which helps a lot. Some people are not able to see that, and so there is no let-up from the fear. That must be really awful to live with.

In many ways, I think the pandemic has been a gift to me, because it has forced me to address the issue of my weight, which I should have been worrying about anyway. Covid was never the only risk factor, but for whatever reason, it shook me into taking action. The more weight I lose, the more I feel that I'm taking active steps to protect myself. Maybe there is even a part of me that doesn't yet want to let go of the fear, because I know that it's doing me a service.

Like most other people, I'm really fed up of lockdown now and I want life to get back to normal. DD needs to be in school and with her friends. I am fearful about it, but I also really want to see people again and do normal stuff. Nevertheless, I can totally empathise with people who are just too scared for that to happen yet - the risk might not be significant, but the fear may be overwhelming.

Generously: Because some people don't get further than the headlines.

And: Because some unfortunate people's direct experience with covid is such that it seems counter to the statistics.

Less generous: Because scaring people is the closest that some get to being significant.

@TheDailyCarbunkle

Where was the fear in 2018 when 27,198 people under the age of 64 died of flu and pneumonia - over five times the number who've died of coronavirus?

27,198 people under the age of 64? That's the total deaths for that year, very few would be under 64 for flu and pneumonia.

@alpenguin

fullfact.org/online/covid-death-rate-under-60/

The stats in OP don’t tell the full story 🙄

Fullfact are not impartial - their funders include Facebook fullfact.org/about/funding/

@Timbucktime

Some people are addicted to fear like an alcoholic to alcohol

^^^This ^^^^^^

@TheDailyCarbunkle I don’t believe I’m in grave danger, it’s more about the impact this has on the NHS. A family member having an urgent operation delayed due to Covid, and this will probably have a life long impact on her. I also know a girl who has mild Covid symptoms, but has suffered a PIMS reaction, which was quite scary. I also know someone in their mid-thirties who was hospitalised for 3 days with Covid pneumonia. She had no underlying health conditions. Mutations worry me too. I think it’s about caution, and I fully support what the government are proposing. I’m also very willing to put my hand up and say I do NOT know better than the professionals, and I will go with whatever they say.

There was a discussion on my local mum's group on FB the day before the announcement. A woman said "well seeing as 43 kids have died from Covid I won't be sending mine in"
Lots of people asking where she got this info as there's nothing of the sort from ONS... she says she read it on another group titled "Parents against schools opening"

Because they do

Move on

Because they have very little else going on in their lives, I imagine. We should pity them really!