Why are people determined to believe the absolute worst?

[TheDailyCarbunkle]

As of Jan 21st 4,717 people in England between the ages of 0-59 died with coronavirus. That includes people with severe health conditions who are very vulnerable to all illnesses. Considering there are about 50.6 million people in that age group in England, that number represents 0.0093% of that age group. To put that number in context, in 2018 27,198 people under the age of 64 died of pneumonia and influenza (which are categorised together by the ONS) - conditions that most people don't worry very much about, especially if they are generally healthy.

In Sweden, the number of deaths of people under 70, as of Feb 2021, is 1,113. Again that includes clinically vulnerable people. It represents about 0.013% of that section of the population. That's with schools open for younger people the whole time, shops and restaurants open, hairdressers open, gatherings of up to 50 people allowed etc etc.

All over the world, no matter what the mitigation measures have been, the deaths of under 70s have been low, especially when compared to other respiratory illnesses like pneumonia and flu. The threat to people under 70, even people who are clinically vulnerable, is not high. The threat to people with no illnesses is extremely low, so low that at times the ONS has had to stop reporting it.

So why do people still believe they're in huge danger?

The irony is that fear and stress are really bad for your health.

Thinking about the friends (all under 50) I know who are, I would say, particularly anxious (one CV, other not) about covid, none of them are unintelligent or unable to understand facts but all are generally more anxious people in normal times.

The two I am particularly thinking about always seem to second guess themselves and worry about things that I don't even consider I should be worrying about! (Then I worry whether I should be concerned )

So I think some people are just more inclined that way.

It is refreshing to see we have another threat with accurate statistics. Oh wait...

It was never about deaths. As I've said before there is a large middle ground with covid.
It isn't as simple as mild " barely knew I had it and couldn't taste my pinot" to dying.
I've worked for the NHS and those who are saying we have these pressures every year need to shut up in all honesty.
I have never before seen 3 patients to a bay on ITU with one nurse and it isn't something I ever want to see again.

And those who are getting pissed off with Long Covid
Tomorrow I am running an outpatient CT scanner 8am-8pm for long covid patients who have developed cardiac problems since. Patients who never had cardiac issues before.
I'll do cardiac CT scans on a large amount of people who are all ages.
The one I did last week youngest was 19!

Granted I live in a very high covid area but still... people need to stop being so dismissive.

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** I have worked for the NHS for a very long time

Because if you die from it you’re 100% dead, not 0.0093% dead.

It’s a known cognitive bias to downgrade risks that have a low likelihood but catastrophic consequences.

Some people do not suffer from that bias, or are aware they suffer from that bias and correct for it.

But what about long covid? Healthy people can get it, they might not die but it could be seriously debilitating.

@fabulousspider

But what about long covid? Healthy people can get it, they might not die but it could be seriously debilitating.

But people aren't in huge danger from catching long covid, no matter how many times 'long covid' gets mentioned. Sure, no one wants long covid, but fear of long covid is not worthy of a pandemic response.

"Long COVID" is about the point where response needs to be about personal responsibility, IMO. Some people are happy to stay away from people, sheild, and avoid anything risky due to the fear of LC. I am not, and that's true for most people, I would say.

Long covid was reported in circa 10% of cases at one point which is quite significant risk wise.

The studies which show high rates of long covid are the ones in which any kind of slow recovery is categorized as "long covid." Severe debilitating symptoms triggered by covid do exist, but thankfully are rare.

My friend is a psychiatrist and she said she now has a large number of patients under 50 with psychological and neurological complications after “recovering” from
Covid. These things shouldn’t cause crippling anxiety but let’s not pretend that death is the only risk.

www.healthline.com/health-news/people-with-covid-19-more-likely-to-develop-depression-anxiety-and-dementia

@Dongdingdong

Glad to see one page in someone already screamed Long Covid.

Covid - the first disease in the history of diseases to have the word “long” placed before it.

I have only ever heard the phrase "long Covid" on Mumsnet.

Drives me mental. Usually preceded by "what about..."

A PP has even said something stupid like "but if you die from it you're 100% dead." Gobsmacking stupidity.

I have only ever heard the phrase "long Covid" on Mumsnet. Drives me mental.

Really? It's a phrase which has been mentioned frequently in the print media, by doctors, researchers, politicians, scientists etc etc and is used by the NHS and the NIH, amongst others.

As far as I know the term originated from self support groups on social media, mainly Facebook. If the people who are suffering from it want to call it that then so what, they have every right to, don't know why some people have such an issue with the name or are so dismissive of it, how about some empathy for others?

Both the UK, the US and others have set up large research projects into the long term effects suffered by some people who have had covid, which is itself indicates an acknowledgement that it is a potential problem with consequences in terms of future care requirements.

www.nih.gov/about-nih/who-we-are/nih-director/statements/nih-launches-new-initiative-study-long-covid

My friend is a psychiatrist and she said she now has a large number of patients under 50 with psychological and neurological complications after “recovering” from
Covid. These things shouldn’t cause crippling anxiety but let’s not pretend that death is the only risk.

Do the number that potentially suffer this as a result outnumber the amount affected by lockdown to a degree that they require professional help for their mental health? I doubt it.

@Cloudbeeb on what basis do you doubt it? Because you just don’t want to believe it?

She describes this as people with no prior history of mental illness but having had Covid. If it’s remarkable enough within her practice to specifically comment to friends that they should be aware of this consequence of the virus, I trust her enough to believe it’s different from mental health issues that are temporary due to lockdown, job loss, etc.

it’s different from mental health issues that are temporary due to lockdown, job loss, etc.

This is ignorant for a start. And many have had their support in the community stopped because of covid. If you genuinely believe that the number who may have this due to having had covid is anywhere near the number of others affected by the fallout from covid then honestly, there are no words.

@CoffeeandCroissantAs far as I know the term originated from self support groups on social media, mainly Facebook. If the people who are suffering from it want to call it that then so what, they have every right to, don't know why some people have such an issue with the name or are so dismissive of it, how about some empathy for others?

Yes, it was. It had different names during last summer when I had it. There wasnt a name really a lot of the time, as we didnt really know what it was, and what was going on, and as like now, peoples' symptoms with it can vary a lot. Plus the medical profession as a whole, and I even include optometrists in that, were all struggling with what was going on. Eventually the name Long Covid won out on social media sites. Because it was covid that just went on and on and on...Now we know there is the initial phase which lots get over, but a few do not. I remember[I got covid in March last year] that people would say, "are you getting better now". And I would say yes. Then after a while they would ask again, it was "are you feeling better" and I would say, "I think I will be feeling better in two weeks". Kept saying that. Then had to say 1 month. Then had to say, end of the year, which was about when it was. Not sure I am 100% over it, but near enough probably.

No way though, do I think the country and economy should be shut down because of long covid. That would be dangerous and ludicrous.

People have been brainwashed into terror. I know people in their 30’s with no underlying issues still hiding in their houses, not letting kids play out in the street, frightened to pass people on walks, washing shopping. A friend had a panic attack on Sunday as she said the streets being full as she walked terrified her. All these people are statistically not at risk of dying but all feel like death is in the air. These people aren’t worried about the NHS being overwhelmed, they are worried about themselves, and frankly it’s irrational.
When I was frightened of driving on the motorway I got CBT on the NHS. It was seen as a sign of mental health issues, but I’m much more likely to die in a car accident then of covid. But being afraid of dying of covid is seen as a natural and ok response.

The thing is, while I accept that my fears about dying from COVID are irrational, I see just as much fear in others around the impact of lockdown on mental health, the damage to a lost generation, or the terrible impact on children of having to wear masks in school. Sure, there will be significant consequences for a very small number of people (just as covid will kill a small number of younger people), but the vast majority of us will get through this. The scaremongering is not only in one direction.

@Haffiana

Because it isn't about deaths. It is about those who are very sick filling up and overwhelming the hospitals which means that even those who are well cannot access services if they need them.

As has been pointed out by every scientist, newspaper and politician and even by every slogan.

Where have you been, OP, that you have managed to completely MISS what the danger is?

Why are you MISREPRESENTING what the danger is?

Are you another Russian bot?

Having been in hospital for a month I've been able to access all the care I need. So have the other people there. None of the wards I have been on have been full. When speaking to the staff they have said they are coping and not overwhelmed. Half the hospital is covid, half is not. Many of my friends are doctors, throughout the pandemic they have been sitting in their clinics bored at times waiting between patients because things got cancelled that could have happened.

Are you MISREPRESENTATING what the danger is ?

" dont remember all this concern when I had Long Glandular fever and spent 5 months bed bound, 18 months before I could return to my job. Since having GF I catch every illness going, even covid. I promise GF is WAY worse than covid was for me."

Less contagious though - used to be called the kissing disease.

"If you cannot rationalise and assess personal risk properly l that’s massively unhealthy and if you project it onto your kids, dangerous"

This seems pretty common among mothers though and not restricted to Covid.
There was a thread some time ago from a mother who wouldn't let her teenage daughter go for a walk in the woods during the day. I think it must be some kind of overprotectiveness that takes over.

@PrairieFires

Thinking about the friends (all under 50) I know who are, I would say, particularly anxious (one CV, other not) about covid, none of them are unintelligent or unable to understand facts but all are generally more anxious people in normal times.

The two I am particularly thinking about always seem to second guess themselves and worry about things that I don't even consider I should be worrying about! (Then I worry whether I should be concerned )

So I think some people are just more inclined that way.

Interesting. I don't know anyone under 60 who is overly worried about catching Covid themselves. I know people who have mental health issues, but lockdown has been far harder for them. Obviously if someone has health anxiety anyway, a global pandemic is likely to be hard for them!

Interesting. I don't know anyone under 60 who is overly worried about catching Covid themselves.

You say that, but actually, you probably don't really know. Most of my friends and family have no idea that I'm worried, because I have chosen not to talk about it.

Thank you OP for a great post. It's been a 'perfect storm' I think.
The world is very polarised and that is exacerbated by SM which has fuelled the fires of identity politics and a very black and white approach to everything. So with Covid, if you're not 'for the saving of just one life' youre a killer and a conspiracist. As life gets 'easier' in the global North, it also gets harder I think to find value, so we buy stuff and do stuff to try to get a quick fix but fundamentally there s perhaps a sense of anomie or lack of 'big' purpose. So with Covid, we've clapped and 'protected the vulnerable' and worn masks and all for a higher purpose:we are 'saving lives'. We are used to 'controlling' - nature generally and life itself; we've been increasingly divorced from death with the elderly less and less likely to be in multi generational households yet living longer and longer. So every death is unnecessary and must be stopped at all costs. We and our political systems are short-termist. So deaths from Covid matter more because they are now. Others don't because they are in the future.
All of these things put together create a febrile and reactive atmosphere. There was concern and the concern was heightened by SM. There was Trump talking gobbledigook; there were many on the progressive left who were sick to the back teeth of the move almost everywhere towards alt-right 'fake news'. So things moved quickly from 'this is concerning; we should look at our pandemic plans and follow them in a thoughtful manner' to panic. It's never good to ditch plans at the point of panic - that's exactly when plans should be followed. They can be changed as evidence changes but the response always needs to be measured. That didn't happen, the whole thing became a rollercoaster; a lot of people don't have a great grasp of maths, data etc and aren't in a position to understand or even look into the context of headlines, so we've boosted ignorance and created fear and now it's really hard to turn the leviathan round.