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Original poster

Good News part 11 - Picnics galore as we head into spring

999 replies

OrangeBananaFish · 22/02/2021 09:57

Hope no-one minds me starting this. Apologies if another has started too. Please can someone add the pretty pictures.

Useful links:

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

www.covidmessenger.com Thanks to LittleOwl for all her hard work!

ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

www.omnicalculator.com/health/vaccine-queue-uk

NB Please don’t take this too seriously- it depends what vaccine delivery speed and uptake you estimate so it’s not written in stone.

Please note, this is a thread to share good news and for wobblers to be reassured. Doomploppers will be met with scorn and derision!

OP posts:
Thread gallery
23
louisejxxx · 06/03/2021 09:05

I think it’s based on about 2weeks ago (when cases were only dropping by about 10-15%) - now it’s more like 30 - 35%. I could be wrong though.

ChocOrange1 · 06/03/2021 09:28

@mrshonda

I don't know if this has been asked already, but I'm puzzled. An article this morning says that the R rate has risen for the first time since January. How can that be true if all the other figures are falling? Is the R rate calculated on old data?
The R rate is based on historical data, about 3 weeks back i think. However as long as the R rate is still below one its not really a concern. Also remember that R id always expressed as a range. So an R of 0.5-0.7 may have changed to an R of 0.5-0.8.
Original poster
OrangeBananaFish · 06/03/2021 09:36

The rate of easing lockdown seems good to me too. Although I dont think they will really start to fly by for a while for me, but the end is in sight. It's just going to take a while to get there. For me, it's all about patience and hoping that it all comes off. My fingers are well and truly crossed (along with my toes)

OP posts:
starfish88 · 06/03/2021 09:56

@InterfectoremVulpes I agree we need to be careful and the 2 weeks back and then holiday gives a good amount of time to get even more people vaccinated before everything is 'fully back'.

But I've seen 'sage think the reopening is too quick' doomplopped on several threads but if sage has figures more pessimistic that reality then that bodes well that reopening might not be the disaster some are predicting. A bit like when 4000 deaths was predicted when we were already deviating from that projection. (and just as well, 4x what we actually had this winter would have been absolute chaos)

FourTeaFallOut · 06/03/2021 10:15

But I've seen 'sage think the reopening is too quick' doomplopped on several threads but if sage has figures more pessimistic that reality then that bodes well that reopening might not be the disaster some are predicting.

Oh yes, this makes logical sense. It might be the nudge for some to be more optimistic but I suspect others would seek out another source to corroborate their gloomy outlook.

TheChineseChicken · 06/03/2021 15:11

First LFT done before DD goes back to school on Monday. Not a pleasant experience (and much trickier and more fiddly than I had expected)!

amicissimma · 06/03/2021 15:41

@1990s, my scruffy, low tech notes tell me that on Friday 3 July there were 544 positives and 137 deaths recorded. I have the number of tests as 205,675, but all the figures are from the dashboard on that day, so the relationship between the number of tests and number of positives isn't clear.

We opened up on 4 July. Weekend, Monday and Tuesday figures can be a bit distorted by reporting lags.

The following Wednesday, 8 July, I have the dashboard reporting 125,978 tests, 630 positives, 126 deaths and 319 UK hospital admissions (which I hadn't been noting before).

CornishYarg · 06/03/2021 16:03

[quote amicissimma]@1990s, my scruffy, low tech notes tell me that on Friday 3 July there were 544 positives and 137 deaths recorded. I have the number of tests as 205,675, but all the figures are from the dashboard on that day, so the relationship between the number of tests and number of positives isn't clear.

We opened up on 4 July. Weekend, Monday and Tuesday figures can be a bit distorted by reporting lags.

The following Wednesday, 8 July, I have the dashboard reporting 125,978 tests, 630 positives, 126 deaths and 319 UK hospital admissions (which I hadn't been noting before).[/quote]
It's interesting to see the figures.

4 July was the weekend that pubs and restaurants opened but some things opened before that e.g. schools were open to certain year groups and non-essential shops opened sometime in June I think.

louisejxxx · 06/03/2021 16:07

Good figures again today, I’m cautiously optimistic that perhaps we may dip under 5000 cases and 100 deaths tomorrow or Monday - either one of those would be great, I’ll do the happy dance if we manage both.

Original poster
OrangeBananaFish · 06/03/2021 16:13

I'm just wondering when we'll get our first double figure death rate for a while. I know they go down on Sunday/Monday so I wonder if we will see it this week (before it goes back up on Tuesday with the lack of weekend reporting)

Obviously, I realise that all deaths are sad and some could be avoided, but we have been in 3 or 4 number figures for months.

Last Sunday and Monday the figures were 144 and 104 respectively (according to my notes - so happy to be corrected if wrong)

OP posts:
Frazzled2207 · 06/03/2021 17:03

@OrangeBananaFish
I was just thinking we might get this tomorrow or monday, along with case rates under 5k which is brilliant.

In my area cases are falling fast after a bit of a plateau a week ago.
Earlier in the week there were two white MSOAs on the map. Yesterday there were 4. Today there are eight!

On the map as a whole I noticed a whole lot more green today. And much of the blue areas left are about to go green.

Frazzled2207 · 06/03/2021 17:06

Also we are close to heading under 10,000 in hospital. Was 40,000 in early Jan.

Wilkolampshade · 06/03/2021 17:07

Can anyone provide a link for me to a daily number of jabs given? It's about the only thing keeping me going....

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 06/03/2021 17:21

Official daily vaccine update

Here you go Smile

louisejxxx · 06/03/2021 17:22

My area has turned dark green on the map today 🙌🏻

Original poster
OrangeBananaFish · 06/03/2021 17:28

Oooh my last message posted. Sorry to have repeated you @louisejxxx when I pressed post I got an error message and have only just got back on. I'm looking forward to tomorrow's figures now

OP posts:
louisejxxx · 06/03/2021 18:04

No problem - optimistic things definitely need repeating around here!!

1990s · 06/03/2021 18:34

[quote amicissimma]@1990s, my scruffy, low tech notes tell me that on Friday 3 July there were 544 positives and 137 deaths recorded. I have the number of tests as 205,675, but all the figures are from the dashboard on that day, so the relationship between the number of tests and number of positives isn't clear.

We opened up on 4 July. Weekend, Monday and Tuesday figures can be a bit distorted by reporting lags.

The following Wednesday, 8 July, I have the dashboard reporting 125,978 tests, 630 positives, 126 deaths and 319 UK hospital admissions (which I hadn't been noting before).[/quote]
Thank you very much! Interesting that deaths are currently lower than that, can we assume from this that we’re in a similar position to last July?

Or is that too much of a leap....

Original poster
OrangeBananaFish · 06/03/2021 19:32

can we assume from this that we’re in a similar position to last July?

The optimist in me wants to suggest that we are in a better position. We have vaccines now also it is the start of Spring. We still have better and warmer weather to come which should help.

Then again I'm not a scientist, but that is what I personally think.

OP posts:
tobee · 06/03/2021 20:53

@OrangeBananaFish

can we assume from this that we’re in a similar position to last July?

The optimist in me wants to suggest that we are in a better position. We have vaccines now also it is the start of Spring. We still have better and warmer weather to come which should help.

Then again I'm not a scientist, but that is what I personally think.

Yes really we're still in winter aren't we? Not spring for a bit.

Is it pretty definite that Covid will be seasonal?

tobee · 06/03/2021 20:56

There's one particular Greek island that I have connections to. I'd love it to be one of these and benefit from tourists this year. I'm unlikely to be able to get there myself for a while but the inhabitants really rely on the industry. Quite possibly won't though as it's not one of the main destinations people think of.

Wilkolampshade · 06/03/2021 21:01

Thank you @TheCountessofFitzdotterel

Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum · 07/03/2021 01:41

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-teachers-perform-take-thats-back-for-good-in-parody-video-as-they-await-students-return-to-school-12238401

Just in case you thought all teachers not looking forwards to Monday. Make sure you watch the YouTube video Grin

starfish88 · 07/03/2021 04:33

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-variants-scientist-optimism-summer-vaccines-5b2wkwwm9

Varients unlikely to stop the UK getting back to normal in summer.