In terms of new variants, we should start having a new adapted vaccine available around August.
At present we think the vaccine at least offers SOME immunity even against the SA mutation, but we are not sure to what degree. This may at less reduce transmission, cases and hospitalisations.
We still do not know how long immunity lasts and when we will need top ups. Most likely we will need to think about this in the autumn for the most vulnerable anyway.
We are unlikely to get a mutation which is much more viralent and even if we do, it takes time for it to spread to a degree where it is a problem (and the vaccine is likely to slow this process in the uk anyway - the issue is more from variants developing outside the uk, which is why international vaccine rollout is so important.
I'm not unduly concerned about this. Experts dont appear to be warning of major issues or this being beyond their expectations (its in line with them) and i dont see any panicking from those quarters.
Yes it's a concern but its not my biggest concern.
My biggest concern is case rates skyrocketing in the weeks immediately after schools reopen and that leading to hospitalisations (and therefore problems) when the hospitals are still more full now than they should be.
Thats the primary risk. Not the variant risk.
Thats what we need to watch for most. An increase in hospitalisations (if this happens it wont be apparent in the data until after Easter because of the lag effect - by which time rule of 6 will already be operational).
That's your danger point.
After End April / Start of May this risk shpuld 'fall off a cliff' simply because of the vaccination role out, but i do think there is effectively a 'gap' in the plan of around 3 to 4 weeks which will leave some deeply exposed. (and thats why my prefered option was to hold on for two more werks til 22nd March).
Im far less concerned about the Autumn right now. Its in planning and not pressing as an issue. The risk assessment puts it lower down than the 'gap in the plan'.