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No flu season anywhere in the world this year ...

304 replies

Dustyboots · 15/02/2021 23:50

Christina Pagel (alternative SAGE) has just said this on Newsnight. She says there's been no flu season anywhere in the world this year because of Covid restrictions etc

Does anyone else know whether this is the case?

She was suggesting that if we kept restrictions up we could eliminate Covid and in the future eliminate most things, therefore reducing deaths forever!

I think she's a bit potty.

OP posts:
lightand · 25/02/2021 16:19

@Desnol

You do get some twits on TV. Flu has not been eradicated.

The reason why incidence of flu appears to have plummeted is simply that the health services are no longer testing for the flu virus, all resources being diverted to testing for SARS-CoV-2.

Lockdowns do have an effect, and the incidence of flu will have dropped in lock-down countries, just like COVID-19. In countries which are not under lockdowns, and there are plenty of those, the flu virus will also be less prevalent, because a proportion of the population will also be shielding.

It's perfectly possible tor the same person to be infected with multiple viruses. Anyone with COVID-19 could also have the flu, or another type of the coronavirus, e.g. the common cold. But once you're tested for SARS-CoV-2, the medics won't test for anything else.

Another reason for the apparent "disappearance" of flu cases, is that people are at last taking sensible precautions, e.g. washing their hands, and taking plenty of Vitamin D, Vitamin C and Zinc, to keep their own immunity at it's highest potential.

There is an issue with the sensitivity of the SARS-Cov-2 PCR tests, it identifies the presence of even the lowest numbers of the virus captured on the nose swab, because the sample is then grown multiple times in the lab, doubling each cycle, as many as 35 cycles, (e.g. 2x2x2... 35 times, which is a very high number.) In a nose swab, these viruses could have come from your chest (if you have been infected by the coronavirus), or you could have just breathed it in earlier that day, but they haven't infected you yet. In fact, they might not infect you at all, depending on the strength of your immunity and how many viruses you have breathed in (a.k.a. viral load). But the PCR test doesn't know whether the viruses came from your chest or the ambient. If you're in the same household as someone who has become infected, you're very likely to have SARS-COV-2 on your nose swab, but it's by no means certain that you will become infected. But if the test detects these traces, then you will be deemed positive, whether you are infected or not.

So, even if you have the COVID-like symptoms and you test positive, it could be that you have the flu and not COVID-19. The health services simply don't test for all respiratory viruses. This isn't so good for identifying which flu strains are likely to be prevalent next year, so they might well inoculate us against the wrong flu strains next year.

Another thing that most people aren't aware of, is that after you've become infected by SARS-CoV-2 and then go on to develop the symptoms, by day 7 to 10, your immune system has killed off all the SARS-COV-2 viruses, and there are no live viruses left in your body. Instead, the body is full of viral debris, lots of dismembered particles of the virus, which also give a positive test result, even though you're no longer breathing out live viruses. Most people go on to recover quickly, but will be testing positive for weeks to come. Some will get very sick, some will end up in ICU and on ventilators and some will die. What most people don't realise is that they will be seriously ill and die not because of the viruses (which are dead by that stage), but because of the very strong immune reaction of our own bodies. Cytokine storm, for example, is caused by our own immune system, over-reacting to the virus and it's debris in our bodies. It's that which kills.

This post rings true for me, unless someone chooses to say which points are wrong.

I just cant get my head around flu being 0. Doesnt make sense. Half the population has still be working, and yes, some physically in factories shops, schools etc etc.
I could understand flu being down by 80% or something, but not 0.

Having said that, I dont know anyone in rl with flu this year, not that I know someone absolutely all years.
I have had flu 4 times in my life. I sure know the difference between a cold and flu!

lightand · 25/02/2021 16:19

And the difference between covid, flu and a cold![had long covid].

Lweji · 25/02/2021 17:25

This post rings true for me

It's designed to ring true. Alas...

It might be worth reading the whole thread for more information. Let me know if you still have questions

Desnol · 27/02/2021 13:00

@Lweji That is really beyond the pale, you continue with your accusations and insinuations, even after I offered to respond to your "objections".

You say you can't be bothered to point out which of my statements you disagree with, but - generously - offer to answer other people's questions. My diagnosis is that you love talking and hate listening. You love giving opinions but dare not argue back with rational arguments, only ad hominem attacks will do for you.

You say you "don't need to do research" because you are "a researcher". You say you are a "researcher in the field of molecular biology and infectious diseases". It's difficult to believe that, because scientists do not behave like you just did.

Or perhaps you are a "researcher" at school, or a newspaper researcher who happens to be "studying" in the field, by "doing no research".

If you are not entirely spineless, I suggest you challenge my arguments by at least pointing out which ones you disagree with, and I can point you in the direction of information and research.

Whether or not you then wish to read it is up to you. I'm more than happy to argue back using evidence and rational arguments.

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