No flu season anywhere in the world this year ...

[Dustyboots]

Christina Pagel (alternative SAGE) has just said this on Newsnight. She says there's been no flu season anywhere in the world this year because of Covid restrictions etc

Does anyone else know whether this is the case?

She was suggesting that if we kept restrictions up we could eliminate Covid and in the future eliminate most things, therefore reducing deaths forever!

I think she's a bit potty.

I knew scientists where testing for a vaccine on all diseases but only some go forward and it’s all to do with red tape and money

No.
Some bugs are really difficult. That's just it.
Look up vaccine studies for malaria, HIV, dengue...
The candidates simply don't perform well in trials. It is not a coincidence that most successful vaccines are for viruses, and some for bacteria. But even viruses like HIV defy vaccination attempts, because they cause disease by evading the immune system, so how to vaccinate against it?

@ErrolTheDragon

Afaik the relationship between viruses and gut microbes is more like comparing that dog with a potato... but yes, of course there needs to be monitoring of population level effects on changes in behaviour re hygiene. I'd take a bet projects are already underway.

Some may be comparable in terms of transmission. Hand washing can be a powerful tool for prevention. But remember those long gone threads where pps were proud of not washing hands, fruit or vegetables? Supposedly never done and super healthy? Don't see many of those recently.

My preferred gut microbe transmission is via different types of live yogurt, not random shit (sometimes literally)

It really annoys me when people keep posting factually incorrect stuff on a thread. It misinforms others and is potentially dangerous.

I feel stupid when I say something and find out afterwards that I was wrong. I listen to the feedback and I question myself and then check I have the facts right, I learn from my mistakes. I feel the need to tell everyone I got it wrong and pass on the correct information.

Sadly there are people that are arrogant enough to still insist that their opinion/theory/knowledge is correct despite all the evidence against them. They will not be told they are wrong and will continue to spout nonsense.

If I'm not certain on a subject then I try to find out more before I say anything - because I don't want people to think I'm an idiot. I wish more people had the same principles.

It would be great if mumsnet had a scoring system where they could grade every poster on how much nonsense they spout. The grammar police could also do a score because people enjoy that too.

The grammar police could also do a score because people enjoy that too

This really made me laugh

+1 for using the correct too

@twelly

I think Covid is awful but I am sceptical that the U.K. reporting overestimates it. The face that if you have Covid in the 28 days previously then it is being really order on the figures presented in briefings as a Covid fatality means all other deaths show as lower compared with previous years. This means that Covid is considered so awful almost to the point that any negative impact of the restrictions is dismissed. Long term I personally think we will see that Covid has had an even greater impact upon lack of screening so illnesses were not caught in early stages, poor health both physical and mental etc etc

This just isn't true. The "deaths within 28 days of a positive covid test" actually slightly underestimates the actual number of deaths where covid is the underlying cause.

The statistics on other causes of death aren't being affected in the way you describe, if you die after a positive covid test of a cause that isn't covid then that cause is what is on your death certificate and not covid. You can check for yourself on the ONS site and see statistics about causes of deaths, eg www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/analysisofdeathregistrationsnotinvolvingcoronaviruscovid19englandandwales28december2019to1may2020/28december2019to10july2020

Thank you AssassinatedBeauty. If I see another misinformed post about deaths and the 28 days thing, I think I may spontaneously combust.

@lljkk

Flu will come back Big

Why do you think that? Not saying you are wrong, but wondering why you think this?

Because current level of social distancing is unsustainable.

Because lots of flu infections are asymptomatic, maybe due to people who have mild residual immunity from past exposure. But that immunity could fade, due to lack of exposure to circulating flu viruses.

Because flu prevalence fluctuates. There are now lots of new people existing who never had flu before or last exposed a while ago: virgin territory. Covid's superpower is it's novel to so many.

Else Maybe we have a dystopian future of constant paranoia about respiratory viruses. Maybe specific testing & quarantine & self-isolation will become the new normal. But I don't think so. Not after winter 21/22.

It's more than likely that at some point another flu strain with pandemic potential will emerge. Influenza is unfortunately rather good at coming up with novel alterations. However, there's some chance that western countries will have learned (as eastern ones had due to SARS) better methods of stopping it getting out of hand. And there will be more expertise and kit for testing, track&trace and vaccine development and manufacture. We'd all got far too complacent about infectious disease.
No one wants more lockdown and other restrictions in perpetuity, I'm somewhat optimistic that lessons really will be learned - definitely by the scientists, hopefully by politicians.

@Calledyoulastnightfromglasgow

I do agree with the discussions about death. We are terrified of it in the UK.

We are all living far too long and in far too unhealthy a state and sadly flu was a factor in controlling that

We can’t all live to one hundred in a semi dicrepit state.

I’m thankful some of family died before covid and didn’t have to live through it.

Also agree about hand sanitisers. Soap and water is good. Antibacterial gel will be trashing our natural immunity to bugs and i suspect we will see ever growing numbers of debilitating gut issues, autoimmunity and allergies at younger ages. And that will be a tragedy.

My Ddad died in 2019. I miss him loads but he had terminal cancer, if he had survived to 2020 I feel sure Covid would have killed him. Im glad he didn't have to live through that.

@knittingaddict

Thank you AssassinatedBeauty. If I see another misinformed post about deaths and the 28 days thing, I think I may spontaneously combust.

Me too. It's maddening.

@ErrolTheDragon really interesting reading your posts on here. Thank you. I'm not much of a scientist but keen to understand, and it's not difficult even for us artsy types to understand that flu and coronaviruses are different things.

The misinformation still being spouted everywhere is baffling and worrying.

@Calledyoulastnightfromglasgow this is already happening as some people are getting eczema on their hands from the alcohol gels and soap. Some people who get eczema are prone to getting bacterial infections on their damaged skin.

No, I had the flu and all those people who had covid/flu like symptoms who got tested for covid and tested negative most likely also had the flu .. or a head cold!
People may not have died of the flu though because social distancing and older people who are most susceptible to it have been shielded - although there are still deaths caused by pneumonia etc and didn’t test positive for covid which I would be thinking could have been caused by the flu? I’m not a professional. Who knows!

Hasn’t the same happened with norovirus this year?

I wouldn't say that keeping the same things in place would be a good idea but extra hand washing ect that we are doing now might be. I tend to do extra handwashing, avoid being round loads of people, not seeing friends and family when they think they are ill or coming down with something etc during flu season anyway due to health issues even before covid since I had pneumonia a few years back and tbh I did notice the difference in how often I was catching anything and didn't get flu. And before anyone asks, no I don't have flu vaccine, allergic to the ingredients and makes me very ill.

FFS - FLU IS COVID 🙄

Nomen est omen.

Don't normally comment but feel so strongly about this one. I'm sure people have had flu, just maybe not bad enough to bother medics. But also, people may have died of flu, but if they've had a positive covid test within 28 days of dying, it won't be recorded as flu, it'll be reported as covid, regardless of whether they had been cleared of covid or not. I work in the NHS, my mum a carer and family have had friends die sadly. All of us are aware these cases exist and some are going to court to remove covid from the death certificate as it is inaccurate.

@BabaJade

Don't normally comment but feel so strongly about this one. I'm sure people have had flu, just maybe not bad enough to bother medics. But also, people may have died of flu, but if they've had a positive covid test within 28 days of dying, it won't be recorded as flu, it'll be reported as covid, regardless of whether they had been cleared of covid or not. I work in the NHS, my mum a carer and family have had friends die sadly. All of us are aware these cases exist and some are going to court to remove covid from the death certificate as it is inaccurate.

How many such cases do you think exist? Do you think they have any real impact?

@Jogonandshutup

FFS - FLU IS COVID 🙄

FFS - are you on glue?

@Jogonandshutup

FFS - FLU IS COVID 🙄

Fine, we’re having a pandemic of a strain of flu then if it makes you happy?

It doesn’t really matter what you want to believe is the consequences are what they are.

Errol it's not worth it, they are too far gone

NRTWT but yes, .Covid19 is different to the flu but they are BOTH coronaviruses

Of course there has been no flu season. Lockdown, social distancing, hand hygiene, and isolating people with flu symptoms will naturally keep flu from spreading in the community. Clearly if these measure bring down Covid, as they have done in all three lockdowns, they will bring down other infectious diseases too.

It's interesting news, because it's nice to be reminded of the silver linings, but it's not surprising.