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No flu season anywhere in the world this year ...

304 replies

Dustyboots · 15/02/2021 23:50

Christina Pagel (alternative SAGE) has just said this on Newsnight. She says there's been no flu season anywhere in the world this year because of Covid restrictions etc

Does anyone else know whether this is the case?

She was suggesting that if we kept restrictions up we could eliminate Covid and in the future eliminate most things, therefore reducing deaths forever!

I think she's a bit potty.

OP posts:
AssassinatedBeauty · 17/02/2021 19:59

@BabaJade

Don't normally comment but feel so strongly about this one. I'm sure people have had flu, just maybe not bad enough to bother medics. But also, people may have died of flu, but if they've had a positive covid test within 28 days of dying, it won't be recorded as flu, it'll be reported as covid, regardless of whether they had been cleared of covid or not. I work in the NHS, my mum a carer and family have had friends die sadly. All of us are aware these cases exist and some are going to court to remove covid from the death certificate as it is inaccurate.
I think doctors are probably pretty competent at differential diagnoses, and would test for flu and covid if there was any doubt, if only to give the appropriate treatment.

I really wish people could tell the difference between the stats that are gathered on covid. There are the PHE figures which give deaths from any cause within 28 days of a positive covid test. That total will include someone who died of another cause who had a positive covid test within 28 days before they died. It also excludes anyone who dies of covid but takes longer than 28 days after their positive test to die. This PHE figure is the one reported daily by the govt as it is quicker to collate.

Then there are the ONS figures that record exactly what is written on each person's death certificates. If someone died of an unrelated condition to covid, and covid played no part in their death, then covid is not recorded on their death certificate even if they had a positive covid test within 28 days before dying. These ONS figures take longer to collate, and are usually at least a week or more behind the current figures. But obviously they are a count of what is actually on death certs rather than the less accurate "within 28 days" PHE total.

If you compare the PHE figure with the ONS data for up to any given week that the ONS figures are available, you can see that the PHE "within 28 days" figure actually underestimates the number of people who have covid on their death certificate.

Regarding the falsification of death certificates by NHS doctors, if you have witnessed this yourself, what percentage of covid deaths do you think they represent? 1%? 0.5%? or a higher figure? Over 100,000 people have covid on their death certificates, if we go with a 1% figure for falsified death certificates, that means that the numbers dying from covid is still over 99,000. As someone who works in the NHS and has seen falsified death certificates, what are the reasons why this is happening? What is motivating doctors to falsify the cause of death wholesale in this way?

PandemicAtTheDisco · 17/02/2021 20:00

@Jogonandshutup

FFS - FLU IS COVID 🙄
Are you being sarcastic?
No flu season anywhere in the world this year ...
PandemicAtTheDisco · 17/02/2021 20:05

@Harmonypuss

NRTWT but yes, .Covid19 is different to the flu but they are BOTH coronaviruses
No. Flu is Influenza - these viruses belong to the family Orthomyxoviridae.

Covid-19 is in the Coronaviridae family.

ConfusedCarrie · 17/02/2021 20:27

A lot of flu cases have been attributed to Covid. An elderly neighbour tested negative for Covid, she was still diagnosed as having Covid.

AssassinatedBeauty · 17/02/2021 20:32

If what you say is true about your elderly neighbour, how does testing negative for covid mean that you must instead have flu? Also, apart from your one elderly neighbour, what evidence is there that this is a widespread problem?

AIMummy · 17/02/2021 20:46

I think there's a lot less of everything at the moment e.g I've not had a cold sore outbreak in a year due to mask wearing protecting against strong sunlight and bitter winds. Also I've not heard of any headlice outbreaks in local schools in the last year. Or any local bedbug infestations. It's interesting.

laidbacklife · 17/02/2021 20:46

Well, once we are ‘back to normal’ we will probably be in for a bumper flu season!

Eve76 · 17/02/2021 21:40

Perhaps Masks have prevailed against flu , I’m no expert but social distancing and masks are the difference perhaps ?

DreamingofDalyan · 17/02/2021 23:19

I would presume its reduced slightly due to mask wearing etc but considering no matter what you go into hospital with its marked as covid. Been around 100 years but miracle this year no colds or flu lol
People are trusting and will believe that if i dr says its covid then it must be covid.
I dont believe in the total effectiveness off the tests. Even the man who created them said false positives are very common.
They wanted it to be covid so im sure they didnt run a selection of tests. The hundreds of thousands who recovered and said it felt like flu were probably right but then again that doesnt make for exciting news not like the 700k deaths thats coming in 3rd wave in November apparently. That keeps the masses firmly focused on covid and nothing but covid.
If it had been anyone doing their job that had cocked up and lied and back tracked as much as government we would all be out of work and maybe even charged

Mamanyt · 17/02/2021 23:25

@Beaniecats

There has It's called covid
However, COVID-19 is not flu. It is related to flu the same way we are related to the Great Apes...we share a lot of DNA, but we are markedly different.
DreamingofDalyan · 17/02/2021 23:26

Also must add does everyone think drs and hospitals are above corruption and saving ones ass if they screw.up
As a medical professional I could write a book on the cover ups ive witnessed. Im not powerful or stupid enough to think i could stop it .

ErrolTheDragon · 17/02/2021 23:40

However, COVID-19 is not flu. It is related to flu the same way we are related to the Great Apes...we share a lot of DNA, but we are markedly different.

These viruses are less related to each other than we are to the great apes. I'm not sure they're actually related at all having thought more about phylogenetic trees.

LilQueenie · 18/02/2021 00:05

The UK government has put flu and covid cases in the same category. Its on the actual website. Secondly two viruses will compete when around at the same time and its thought to be the reason for a lack of flu cases. Unfotunately it took a deadlier virus to knock the flu off the radar. We can't always get rid of a virus. The cold sore virus has been around for millions of years and partial encoded into our dna. You would have to kill people off to eliminate that one.

Branleuse · 18/02/2021 00:09

Be interesting to see whether people start getting flu again after covid vaccinations have innoculated most of us

UmbilicusProfundus · 18/02/2021 00:24

Intrigued to know what kind of medical professional you are @DreamingofDalyan. You sound very important and knowledgeable

ErrolTheDragon · 18/02/2021 00:43

@Branleuse

Be interesting to see whether people start getting flu again after covid vaccinations have innoculated most of us
If most people have cv vacc and so we reduce distancing and get laxer on hygiene, and only a minority have the flu vacc, then it would be surprising if we don't get a more normal flu outbreak next winter.
UsedUpUsername · 18/02/2021 05:15

Errol I’m not sure the usual cycle of flu vaccine prep is going to work though. How will they know which strains are going to circulate in the next season? They often get this wrong in a normal season. I think the flu is going to hit hard when it comes back.

eaglejulesk · 18/02/2021 05:31

I would presume its reduced slightly due to mask wearing etc but considering no matter what you go into hospital with its marked as covid. Been around 100 years but miracle this year no colds or flu lol

So how do you explain the reduced flu cases in countries where they have little or no covid? Also, no-one said there are no colds, I know plenty of people who have had colds.

Coffeecreativity · 18/02/2021 05:42

@Watchingbehindmyhands

”It's a completely different virus” That’s your opinion

Seriously?

Oh dear. Did PP seriously say that?
Whynotnowbaby · 18/02/2021 06:47

Here in Iceland we currently have very low levels of Covid (no new infections most days). But over the last few weeks we have had a huge number of people with flu symptoms (in some cases bad enough that it has turned to pneumonia), I work in a school which was struggling for staff last week and ds’s school had to close one day for lack of staff.

Everyone with flu symptoms is automatically tested for Covid so we know it’s not that.

scaevola · 18/02/2021 07:10

The UK government has put flu and covid cases in the same category. Its on the actual website

I take it you mean that there is a unified covid and flu weekly report? They're not in the same category, but are covered separately in the one document. Here's the most recent, if you're not familiar with one.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/960421/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w6.pdf

Sentinel testing for flu is occurring and isn't finding it, so quite a lot of the flu section of the report is about those seeking medical advice for influenza like illnesses (untested for cause, but covid excluded, also much lower)

Yes predictions are going to be a bit of a bugger

Lweji · 18/02/2021 09:08

@Whynotnowbaby

Here in Iceland we currently have very low levels of Covid (no new infections most days). But over the last few weeks we have had a huge number of people with flu symptoms (in some cases bad enough that it has turned to pneumonia), I work in a school which was struggling for staff last week and ds’s school had to close one day for lack of staff.

Everyone with flu symptoms is automatically tested for Covid so we know it’s not that.

That's interesting. Do you know if it's the flu virus or another?

But the general consensus is that covid measures do an even better job at preventing the flu, so it kind of stands to reason that if you have no or hardly any covid measures flu and other viruses can be transmitted easily.

Lweji · 18/02/2021 09:23

But WHO and ECDC data so far have shown baseline flu activity.

There were earlier warnings of bird flu possibly reaching Iceland via migratory birds.

PuffinShop · 18/02/2021 22:40

@Whynotnowbaby

Here in Iceland we currently have very low levels of Covid (no new infections most days). But over the last few weeks we have had a huge number of people with flu symptoms (in some cases bad enough that it has turned to pneumonia), I work in a school which was struggling for staff last week and ds’s school had to close one day for lack of staff.

Everyone with flu symptoms is automatically tested for Covid so we know it’s not that.

That is interesting, do you have a link (can be in Icelandic)? Or is it something you've just noticed personally? I'm in the capital area and wasn't aware but I might have missed it, don't always read all the news.
JS87 · 18/02/2021 22:44

@ConfusedCarrie

A lot of flu cases have been attributed to Covid. An elderly neighbour tested negative for Covid, she was still diagnosed as having Covid.
She might have had covid. The effects of covid on the lungs are unmistakable on an x Ray. The pcr swab however can easily be negative for lots of reasons - swan taken too late in the course of infection, swab not thorough enough etc etc. Perhaps it was clear that your elderly neighbour did in fact have covid (if she was admitted to hospital).