No flu season anywhere in the world this year ...

[Dustyboots]

Christina Pagel (alternative SAGE) has just said this on Newsnight. She says there's been no flu season anywhere in the world this year because of Covid restrictions etc

Does anyone else know whether this is the case?

She was suggesting that if we kept restrictions up we could eliminate Covid and in the future eliminate most things, therefore reducing deaths forever!

I think she's a bit potty.

@ErrolTheDragon has it though? I am suspicious of this as every time a new variant is discovered, the first thing we’re told is that the vaccine will work against it. Even though when those vaccines were developed, that strain didn’t exist. I am not a scientist, but as a layperson this makes no sense to me. I asked a friend who is a medical doctor about his take on this and his response was to laugh and say ‘no, vaccines don’t work like that’. Which confirmed what my own logic had told me.

I am not a covid denier, but there’s some seriously fishy business going on here.

@Jgdgjbdssvuuuuu
Opinion? That's like saying 'the Earth is round' is an opinion.

DM local politician says no excess deaths have occurred 😂 amazing.

Flu is not one generic virus, there are literally so many different types.

It’s really interesting. I’ve not seen a decent explanation for it.

It’s not social distancing or masks, because flu has disappeared everywhere, including places like Sweden and Japan which aren’t doing all that much.

It can’t be “viral interference” because not that many people have Covid at any one time - maybe 2% max

It’s not just Covid being renamed as the flu, that’s a conspiracy theory.

www.verywellhealth.com/learn-about-different-types-of-flu-770509

@starcat2020

But they are all influenza viruses rather than corona viruses

[quote ThatchersCold]@ErrolTheDragon has it though? I am suspicious of this as every time a new variant is discovered, the first thing we’re told is that the vaccine will work against it. Even though when those vaccines were developed, that strain didn’t exist. I am not a scientist, but as a layperson this makes no sense to me. I asked a friend who is a medical doctor about his take on this and his response was to laugh and say ‘no, vaccines don’t work like that’. Which confirmed what my own logic had told me.

I am not a covid denier, but there’s some seriously fishy business going on here.[/quote]
I am a scientist. A mutation can lead to a change in some properties but it doesn't disrupt the whole structure. If the mutation isn't in the area which is the 'target' for the vaccine it will work. If it's in that area but not too different then it may work a bit less well.

There's nothing remotely fishy about that.
It's quite difficult to explain these things. Do you know what I mean by a sequence, or have any idea about protein structures and how antibodies work?

@HalfPastThree - why has this not been picked up by the media?

News is sooo boring at the moment - especially all the regurgitated Covid stuff.

I'm fascinated now.

No excess deaths? Seriously? Give yer head a wobble

www.kingsfund.org.uk/press/press-releases/excess-deaths-ons-data-kings-fund-response

[quote ClinkyMonkey]@Jgdgjbdssvuuuuu
Opinion? That's like saying 'the Earth is round' is an opinion.[/quote]
There really is no point trying to explain. Lost cause

Is the sequence the series of building blocks - like lego?

And is the protein structure the shape of that lego building/

Do the antibodies have to fit the lego building/bind to it - in order to eat it up and make it disappear?

[quote Bluntasduck]@starcat2020

But they are all influenza viruses rather than corona viruses[/quote]
Quite. There are indeed lots of influenza viruses. But they're not in the same family as corona viruses. They're not even in the same order, class or phylum!

@Dustyboots

Is the sequence the series of building blocks - like lego?

And is the protein structure the shape of that lego building/

Do the antibodies have to fit the lego building/bind to it - in order to eat it up and make it disappear?

That's a reasonable analogy. Except a lot bendier.

[quote Dustyboots]@HalfPastThree - why has this not been picked up by the media?

News is sooo boring at the moment - especially all the regurgitated Covid stuff.

I'm fascinated now.[/quote]
When I’ve seen it in the media, everyone seems to attach their pet theory to it - so in the UK we don’t have flu because of lockdowns, in the US it’s because everyone is wearing masks (which has presumably also eradicated flu in the states where nobody is wearing masks too). In Sweden flu has apparently gone because people have been following the moderate public health advice...

Hand washing (or gel) really does help limit influenza spread, and there was also a big push to do a lot of flu jabs here. Was there similar elsewhere?

As well as social distancing we also had record uptake of flu vaccine. I feel slightly worried about next year, as by disturbing the natural flu seasons we may not have enough evidence from the Southern Hemisphere to develop a good vaccine for next year.

@PPNC

Yes Flu has been almost eradicated. There are 3 schools of thought:

1 - Some Covid cases/deaths are actually flu under another name if treated symptomatically and not actually tested. Symptoms are the same sort of.

2 - we eradicated flu with distancing etc measures

3 - viruses “fight” each other, they don’t like sharing a host so flu has basically been kicked out of his territory by Covid

1 - I think is fully possible

2 - I think is bollocks because we would have eradicated Covid too

3 - I’d have to be a virologist to understand. Seems both logical and illogical when we do sometimes get 2 viruses at the same time living in us.

I would say that reason 2 is the most plausible. It is likely that some aspect of our behavior such as social distancing has disrupted the transmission of seasonal flu viruses. If we were social distancing at the point when flu viruses typically start to circulate, it is very possible that cutting those few transmission events stopped flu viruses getting a foothold in the population.

Option 1 isn’t my experience, there’s a lot of testing capacity now and people will be tested repeatedly if negative

It would be odd if we’d eradicated flu via social distancing because (1) you’d expect flu to still be around in places that aren’t doing a lot of social distancing, and (2) some of the things we’re doing, like isolating only people with Covid, and keeping schools open, would be expected to give a big advantage to flu vs Covid.

All kids up to and including year 7 and all vulnerable kids have been strongly encouraged to have the vaccine this year. It’s possible that has really inhibited spread in schools.

@HalfPastThree

It would be odd if we’d eradicated flu via social distancing because (1) you’d expect flu to still be around in places that aren’t doing a lot of social distancing, and (2) some of the things we’re doing, like isolating only people with Covid, and keeping schools open, would be expected to give a big advantage to flu vs Covid.

Not necessarily. Flu doesn't have the same amount of transmission by asymptomatic people.

The way exponentials work, if the various measures taken against covid are also effective against flu but probably even moreso, the flu r will stay well below 1 and spread won't occur.

The science and maths make sense to me.

My favourite line on this thread is “like Lego but bendier”

Agree, flu is a lot less infectious, thus SD is much more effective

@PPNC

Yes Flu has been almost eradicated. There are 3 schools of thought:

1 - Some Covid cases/deaths are actually flu under another name if treated symptomatically and not actually tested. Symptoms are the same sort of.

2 - we eradicated flu with distancing etc measures

3 - viruses “fight” each other, they don’t like sharing a host so flu has basically been kicked out of his territory by Covid

1 - I think is fully possible

2 - I think is bollocks because we would have eradicated Covid too

3 - I’d have to be a virologist to understand. Seems both logical and illogical when we do sometimes get 2 viruses at the same time living in us.

I think it’s 2 and here’s why

1. humans have some immunity to flu between vaccinations and previous infections. Covid 19 is brand new to us so we don’t present such a strong defense to it compared to flu virus which most people have come across before

2. huge increase in focus on not being around other people with any cold-like symptoms. Previously people would go to school or work with sniffles or a low grade fever and try to cope. Now this is not acceptable. Unfortunately Covid can present without symptoms for a few days so people
   spread unknowingly. Flu on the other hand makes you feel crap within about 24 hours of exposure.