Why can't schools all go back at once?

[Trumplosttheelection]

I have seen suggestions that secondary pupils will have to wait a week longer? Why?
Secondary schools have actually managed social distancing quite well and adolescent mental health is in crisis. Not to mention their academic future being in the toilet.
I can't see why they have to wait another week?

@wonderstuff

50% of people in ICU are not in the vaccine priority groups, so if the infection rate doubled ICUs would be full. I'm desperate to get back to to school, but I think it's too early to call.

not in groups 1 to 9? Or do you mean not in groups 1 to 4? Many areas are now vaccinating group 6

@RuleWithAWoodenFoot

I can't see how it will be any different to last term.

Me neither. Schools have been closing bubbles during lockdown, some with only 8 kids in the bubble. It'll be November and December all over again. No-notice closures for isolation and no KW care, schools with not enough staff. Community levels need to be very, very low.

Exactly

My hospital ward had no cases all year... until Christmas when it had 40.
Once you have an outbreak it can spread like wildfire before you know it.

A low number of cases is largely luck. Depends where you are in the country, what circulating cases were like mostly.

Or it could be that a shiny new build building is easier to social distance in or that pupils in less disadvantaged areas are more compliant with measure or have less exposure as all their middle class parents are wfh vs those whose parents work in factories and rely on public transport.

I dislike people suggesting that because cases were low in their school the measures work. It was not the case for many other places who tried just as hard.

@Enidblyton1

I agree that 1 week difference seems a bit arbitrary. But it’s a drop in the ocean compared with the amount of proper school teenagers have already missed (and I’m talking about more than academics - the stuff that you can’t achieve online).

It has infuriated me how all analysis on schools (or certainly that which has been reported) has looked at 4-18 year olds as a homogeneous group. With Wales and Scotland opening doors to younger pupils on 22nd, there is finally some recognition that very young children have lower viral load and spread. Of course, politically, Boris could never been seen to follow Nicola Sturgeon’s example...

I have read government research differentiating between primary and secondary freely available

mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1360891089104867328

Thread on why the fact that the most vulnerable are vaccinated doesn’t mean that we don’t still need to be cautious. Doesn’t mean that schools can’t open but we do need to do it in a way that doesn’t mean hospital admissions starting to rise again.

And we do need to look at cases not admissions because the two are linked. Small numbers can rise quickly, big numbers like 13000 rise much more quickly. Would be better if we didn’t start lockdown 4 before we’ve got out of 3.

*Trumplosttheelection

The kids at our school didn't move around much either. It is possible though a compromise for some lessons.
I don't think they were lucky. I think they worked really hard.
Most kids need school and they all need to get back ASAP.*

I resent the implication that schools that did have to close bubbles weren't 'working hard' - how offensive! Most of our closures were after the October half-term - we can't control what the kids do at half-term nor can we control what they do once they leave the school gates.

50% in ICU are under 60 and 25% under 50, so half are not in groups 1-4 and a quarter not in groups 1-9, although I don't think there's data on how many younger people are in the clinically vulnerable groups. 3 weeks to get immunity after the jab as well so even though we're on group 5 & 6 we're 3 weeks from group 4 having immunity.

Infection shot up so quickly when we opened all the schools last time, we've got to be mindful of potential impact on younger people and intensive care.

@Chewingle
I have read newspaper articles alluding to the differences and saying that viral load and spread is lower amongst younger children , but never any concrete figures. Have you seen actual figures? I’d be interested to know how significant the difference really is between infant, junior, lower senior and upper senior.

Also worth mentioning that there’s only 5550 icu beds so majority in hospital are not in icu

Out of 67 million, those seriously ill are actually low

@Enidblyton1

Just one after a second of research
www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30927-0/fulltext

Divided up 5-11 11-18 18-25
With figures

Doesn’t matter how low a proportion of the population they are of there are more of them than there are icu beds. Some hospitals are still 2-3 times over their normal winter ICU capacity.
There’s not really a lot of point in discussing now whether schools should go back on Mar 8th. It’s too soon to be able to sort any exact plan.

I don't think they were lucky. I think they worked really hard.

Considering most of the other schools in the country had similar measures yet were all affected differently, I think you got lucky.

Our school had 3 cases all winter term. It can be done

Your school was lucky.

Schools with low cases were down to pure luck. We tried our best at my school as I'm sure did every other school.

How do you stagger start a finish times for schools where a significant proportion of pupils travel to and from school on school buses? It can’t be done without significant investment in more, smaller vehicles and more DBS checked drivers with the right categories on their driving licences. That’s not going to happen.

So even if our school keeps kids in one classroom all day (let’s not worry about sets, options etc shall we?), kids from most year groups will already have mixed on their buses where they can wear masks but not socially distance.

Teachers will still see up to 180 different pupils per day, add into that the bus and family group contacts......

It’s not hard to see how a small number of positive cases can quickly spiral in enclosed spaces with large numbers of people (schools).

In Wales, ks1 children will start to return after half term, still no mention of years 3 and above......

Surely the chance of a school having cases has something to do with levels outside the school and the particular strain involved?

Low cases + original strain = lucky
Lots of cases + Kent strain = big problem in schools

I think it's also to do with the size of the school, but that's my particular theory. You're both more likely to get an initial case, and then you have more people to pass it on to. It's a bit like the compartments inside a large boat. It's very hard to sink a boat with lots of little compartments (equivalent to a number of small schools) but if you have a boat with one large open hull, it can sink more easily.

Clearer example: I think if you have one school with 1500 students, I think you will have more cases than in 3 schools with 500 students each. I think this is also true for factories and other work places.

Bubbles are still closing now. My friend and her y4 KW bubble all have to isolate over half term break due to a positive case 😖. Last thing she needed ☹️

It was always complete rubbish that schools are ‘safe’. 30+ children packed into classrooms barely large enough for them all and using the same toilets as other classes. Not meaning to scare anyone, but honestly it’s just not possible to socially distance. TAs have to be up close to children, again usually due to lack of space, and don’t wear masks. It’s impossible to supervise all children washing their hands multiple times a day.

@Caesargeezer

It was always complete rubbish that schools are ‘safe’. 30+ children packed into classrooms barely large enough for them all and using the same toilets as other classes. Not meaning to scare anyone, but honestly it’s just not possible to socially distance. TAs have to be up close to children, again usually due to lack of space, and don’t wear masks. It’s impossible to supervise all children washing their hands multiple times a day.

Absolutely. The government have spun a huge amount of lies. We'd all be far better off if the truth was widely known by parents

Parents need to choose what matters most - schools open soon or schools staying open with no outbreaks.

I'm pretty pissed off about the UK always opening everything a fortnight too early, ending in mess.

My preference for secondary is after Easter, when things are much better and bubbles bursting etc therefore much reduced.

But the dickheads run the country, so I expect it'll be earlier.

[quote Chewingle]@Enidblyton1

Just one after a second of research
www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30927-0/fulltext

Divided up 5-11 11-18 18-25
With figures[/quote]
Thanks, very interesting @Chewingle
Though this was published on 8th December so doesn’t reflect the new variant. I haven’t been able to find anything more recent.

It’s not actually for parents to choose is it? I don’t think I’ve been consulted at any point!
Parents aren’t all complete idiots unable to do any risk assessment. Schools and areas are not the same. Pupils and family vulnerability are not the same, And no the outbreaks seen in schools are not totally ‘luck’ some schools can and do implement more measures than others, some areas have a low background infection rate, peoples’ behaviour differs. So many variables. Schools that had a couple of cases last term can be unlucky and get an outbreak but it’s about the probability of that happening, the damage of lockdown. We’re in the middle of a pandemic, nowhere is ‘safe’ but children are not going to be vaccinated for a long time. Before or after Easter Makes little difference to me (although presumably school will be expected to open for the holidays if opening is after so not great for staff who are in). However, I think the benefits are hugely outweighed if you’re talking about September or when children are vaccinated.

Dd was in school the whole term. This is a standard secondary school. 1500 pupils. Year groups kept apart, masks at all times except eating and lessons, staggered and separate arrivals.

Same as my school. No social distancing though, no space. Bubbles popping left right and centre.

An approx estimate for 1500 people having 2m social distance. You’d need approx 100 classrooms, if people stood against the walls. Not including corridors, gyms, halls etc

Your school must be the size of a small country!