So if we're going to live with covid

[Lelophants]

And counties like Australia and NZ have a no covid policy, how on earth will we integrate? I know the UK is too far gone. But how will we be allowed to travel if we keep getting vaccinnes but they don't always stop transmission because we have constantly new strains?

Or do you think other countries will give up on no covid policies too?

The way I see it we have three choices.

1. Drive cases right down. Zero covid policy. Personally, I think this ship has sailed, this horse has bolted, etc.

2. Drive cases down a bit, try to keep them down by balancing pressures (as outlined above).

3. Respond to all the people saying "We MUST do this" and go into a crazy yo-yo of cases rising to crisis point and then being forced into lockdowns.

To do this, we need a government that reacts to the data and not to the public mood of the day. Yes quite - but we've got who we've got and that's the biggest risk for the UK at the moment. Dolts.

"I'm happy to be "inconvenienced" in many ways but, in my opinion, pressing pause on children's education / development for months / years that this cohort of kids will never get back is too high a price."

@Noneedtocry I agree schools should have remained open BUT with proper mitigations/ rotas / ventilation improvements / widespread laptop use etc

But of course that costs money and would mean government cares about children in state schools. Which they don't

@Nellodee

The way I see it we have three choices.

1. Drive cases right down. Zero covid policy. Personally, I think this ship has sailed, this horse has bolted, etc.

2. Drive cases down a bit, try to keep them down by balancing pressures (as outlined above).

3. Respond to all the people saying "We MUST do this" and go into a crazy yo-yo of cases rising to crisis point and then being forced into lockdowns.

Still lockdown post vaccination?

"Scientifically incorrect though and covid clearly isn't listening. The variants in covid require more surveillance/reepinse than flu simply because covid is nothing like flu. I wish it was like flu!"

I wish it was like the flu too @PracticingPerson

No one is saying it is like the flu

Just a model to use

Can someone outline what it will be like then as an alternative?

@MarshaBradyo

"Oh come on. It’s being used by CMO to explain. It’s shorthand for people to understand next phase. A pity that we had the whole it’s not the flu stage as now we can’t use it as a useful model to explain (for some anyway).

Why should they use scientifically incorrect shorthand?
Is it right to use that "shorthand" if it's untrue?
What's so hard in saying the phrase "this virus has important differences from the flu so we need different measures"?

[quote Nellodee]@stilllovingmysleep If I had my way, we would open up gradually, not with a big bang. We have downwards pressure on viral growth from the ever increasing amount of vaccinations and formerly infected people, we have upwards pressure in the form of new variants and the relaxation of restrictions. We should get cases lower initially (as we are doing), and then attempt to keep those things in balance as we move forwards. To do this, we need a government that reacts to the data and not to the public mood of the day.[/quote]
@Nellodee I'm with you on the points you make here.

Sleep because the aim is to get to the same position.

Can you outline where you think it will be

"3) Respond to all the people saying "We MUST do this" and go into a crazy yo-yo of cases rising to crisis point and then being forced into lockdowns."

@Nellodee this seems to be what the U.K. government has been doing this year. Reactive all the way.

Personally I would prefer a close to zero Covid strategy but your second scenario could work too

Presumably, when everyone is vaccinated, the downwards pressure from this on the growth of the virus (or, to be more specific, the growth as it affects hospitals) will be enough to lift restrictions. It's the bit before everyone is vaccinated that we have to worry about, surely?

I can see us possibly, not definitely, having a couple of periods in the future where vaccine escape becomes a temporary problem during bad winters, and we might have localised outbreaks which need dealing with (in the same way Norovirus occasionally shut schools before) and I can see us probably needing to raise taxes due to increased demand on the NHS all round (long Covid, mental health issues), but I can't see a situation where we would have to live like this permanently.

@MarshaBradyo

No one is saying it is like the flu

Just a model to use

Can someone outline what it will be like then as an alternative?

@MarshaBradyo

It's the wrong model though

As for the alternatives, I guess I and some others have outlined ideas. We are not Chris Whitty though.

@Nellodee

Presumably, when everyone is vaccinated, the downwards pressure from this on the growth of the virus (or, to be more specific, the growth as it affects hospitals) will be enough to lift restrictions. It's the bit before everyone is vaccinated that we have to worry about, surely?

I can see us possibly, not definitely, having a couple of periods in the future where vaccine escape becomes a temporary problem during bad winters, and we might have localised outbreaks which need dealing with (in the same way Norovirus occasionally shut schools before) and I can see us probably needing to raise taxes due to increased demand on the NHS all round (long Covid, mental health issues), but I can't see a situation where we would have to live like this permanently.

No me either.

I agree the next few months are trickier

But after that all countries will probably come to same situation

Just let it go if it doesn’t help you Sleep it’s not important

It’s a way to describe what it will be like

If no one is willing to say what they think then not much good

@Nellodee

Presumably, when everyone is vaccinated, the downwards pressure from this on the growth of the virus (or, to be more specific, the growth as it affects hospitals) will be enough to lift restrictions. It's the bit before everyone is vaccinated that we have to worry about, surely?

I can see us possibly, not definitely, having a couple of periods in the future where vaccine escape becomes a temporary problem during bad winters, and we might have localised outbreaks which need dealing with (in the same way Norovirus occasionally shut schools before) and I can see us probably needing to raise taxes due to increased demand on the NHS all round (long Covid, mental health issues), but I can't see a situation where we would have to live like this permanently.

@Nellodee nobody- certainly not zero Covid proponents- say we should live like this permanently though. Why do people keep claiming that? It's just not true

And as for the rest, yes I agree that seems the most likely and doable scenario in the U.K. and let's hope the government doesn't mess it up

@stilllovingmysleep

Given that even countries with a zero Covid policy have consistently had outbreaks Covid will be here for a long time yet

@twelly yes they have outbreaks. Of course. It's a pandemic. They then work on excellent test and trace to quell them

I don’t believe we should be in a constant state of tracking and tracing - we should not in my opinion be living in a society that seeks to adopt zero tolerance

I think the thing with the second strategy is that it's very hard to get an R of 1. If you go in even slightly too hard, cases will continue to decrease, it will look like you're aiming for a zero Covid policy and people will complain that you have too many restrictions. However, the alternative is not going in hard enough, and I am a much bigger fan of exponential decrease than increase in this situation.

We are in the wonderful position that the situation overall should be continuously improving and if we go cautiously, we should be able to continuously release restrictions without having to backpedal. We shouldn't waste that.

Unfortunately, news items like "All schools to open for all students on March 8th!!!!" when we are sitting bloody close to an R of 1 as it is fill me with dread, not because I don't want schools to reopen, but because I want them to STAY open when they do.

@MarshaBradyo

Just let it go if it doesn’t help you Sleep it’s not important

It’s a way to describe what it will be like

If no one is willing to say what they think then not much good

@MarshaBradyo I haven't claimed it doesn't help me as a model. I have just claimed it's the wrong model and thus shouldn't be used.

But we agree to disagree on that.

I think I have said though what I would want otherwise (if I had my way which I don't!)

Anyway we are all hoping for the best here.

@twelly

I don’t believe we should be in a constant state of tracking and tracing - we should not in my opinion be living in a society that seeks to adopt zero tolerance

In public health they always do that anyway. I am not talking about "constant tracking and tracing". I am talking about proper robust tracking and tracing once cases are right down in order to keep on top of this and allow us to live our lives more freely

We may track in the community. I haven’t said we definitely won’t.

Or it may be in hospital.

Although a lot of messaging is to get us to test and this may change as threat changes.

If we don't test and track in the community for some time yet we are basically choosing to work in the dark. I don't put it past the UK government but that would be a stupid choice.

As vaccines kick in we will have fewer needing to test so the infrastructure can reduce but certainly you'd want to know what variants were emerging in schools and universities. % vaccine take up is expected to fall as you go down the age groups and the vaccine doesn't prevent all transmission anyway. If you had a variant of concern at a university, you would really want to see that before it reaches older people.

Oh, I forgot another downwards pressure - summer time. I think we underestimated the seasonality of Covid last year and I'm really hoping it gives us a period of breathing space this year whilst we get those vaccines out to the main body of the British public.

We are in the wonderful position that the situation overall should be continuously improving and if we go cautiously, we should be able to continuously release restrictions without having to backpedal. We shouldn't waste that.

@Nellodee absolutely. It has been awful for kids all these open close scenarios. I was livid when they opened schools for one day, only to close the day after. The whole point is to keep schools open permanently, with mitigations

I am less optimistic than you about ability for this virus to be contained in that way if it circulates quite widely but I mostly agree with your points

We don’t test and track flu.

I think that's the first time I've been called an optimist on Mumsnet (though I think I am one, too).

Can someone outline what it will be like then as an alternative?

It will be like covid... but whenever that is said people freak out because a) they want something familiar and b) they want something easier.