So if we're going to live with covid

[Lelophants]

And counties like Australia and NZ have a no covid policy, how on earth will we integrate? I know the UK is too far gone. But how will we be allowed to travel if we keep getting vaccinnes but they don't always stop transmission because we have constantly new strains?

Or do you think other countries will give up on no covid policies too?

I'm not sure what the benefit of suddenly opening everything up would be, if we end up taking huge steps backward.

There wouldn’t be one, which is why I’m not arguing for that.

See, this is why trying to discuss ‘zero covid’ is like trying to nail jelly to a wall. Everyone has a different idea of what they mean by it and everyone’s sure they mean the same thing as everyone else.

Do I think we should push to get cases as low as reasonably possible and have vaccinations help massively with that, yes.

Do I think we’ll still have to ‘live with covid’ to some degree after this, yes. As will all the other countries.

I think zero covid is an appropriate and good strategy in the short term, for countries that can afford to do it. Once we’ve rolled out the vaccines, though, the situation is different and pushing for ‘zero covid’ is not worth the considerable costs any more.

And it’s a bit frustrating that any time you say zero covid wouldn’t work for the future, people tell you that well of course not we’re only talking about now, that’s what ‘zero covid’ means - but when you say NZ and Aus will be in the same position in the future, other people tell you that no they won’t because they have this while different strategy and will stick to it, that’s what ‘zero covid’ means.

Typo: cover = covid

[quote Oaktree55]@stilllovingmysleep because the vaccines aren’t 100% effective, nor will there be 100% take up, nor are kids able to be vax yet. U.K. has potentially 30% natural infection to aid vax immunity. So herd immunity isn’t achievable in NZ and having to deal with Covid fresh will create (to a far lesser degree) the issues we’ve had. Yes what they did originally attempting zero Covid before vax was correct, now we have vaccines and they’ll open up their problems dealing with the disease will emerge. Unless of course a pre hospital treatment is discovered/developed.[/quote]
Vaccinations may not achieve a perfect picture but they will massively drive down the number of deaths and hospitalisations

It's clear from all we know on these vaccinations that the best scientific minds are working on them, it's been a miracle that they were even produced so quickly. And they will continue to improve. As well as therapeutics.

This will also be the case in NZ and Australia, except they have also had the benefit of a tiny number of illness and death and live a good enough life, with some limits of course. Zero Covid doesn't mean literally "zero", it means push it down as much as possible to make it manageable, buy time and avoid deaths

We can of course continue on our current path. Not sure what the benefits of that are. I haven't seen any, almost all year we have been semi locked down

Our current path appears to be ‘vaccinate everyone as fast as possible’. Absent a time machine to correct the cock-ups of the past, what is it you think that should be replaced with?

@PracticingPerson

Yes it is easier to do it now.

The problem we have is - if the government admits they can control covid now, then they also admit they could have controlled it before, thus taking responsibility for the death toll, especially the >30k in January 2021.

We must pretend covid is uncontrollable, to protect our government. And many will support them, as emotionally that is less gruesome than facing the havoc the decision-making has wreaked. A lot of people just want to move on.

Very good point @PracticingPerson. Which is so tragic actually

*Do I think we should push to get cases as low as reasonably possible and have vaccinations help massively with that, yes.

Do I think we’ll still have to ‘live with covid’ to some degree after this, yes. As will all the other countries.*

@GoldenOmber I think we agree on a lot and thank you for explaining

@PracticingPerson

People clearly don't understand zero covid. Of course NZ will continue with zero covid. What, people think they will suddenly want more covid?

They are spending very little now, they will just carry on doing as they are now, swapping hotel quarantine for 'vaccinated, negative test before and after arrival'.

It may be too hard to contain this way. Even with strict quarantine in place it escapes.

Vaccination will likely reduce but not stop transmission. Negative test isn’t full proof as could be too early in infection.

I thought the plan was vaccinate Aus / NZ population then open up and take less severe outcome of virus.

Oh dear people still think Zero Covid is desirable/achievable 🤦🏽‍♀️. Vaccination changes the goalposts. Not one proponent of Zero Covid ever acknowledges the immense harms/costs even attempting to achieve it would cause.

The amount of money lost to the economy and the amount that would be required attempting to achieve it would be astronomical.

I really think the likes of Devi Sridhar should be outed for the charlatans they are!!! Some people who follow her actually think despite her half truths it’s a possibility. It’s manipulative and as bad as the Sikora’s of this world.

It may be too hard to contain this way. Even with strict quarantine in place it escapes.

Yes. Auckland is going back into (short) lockdown now because the bastard virus managed to get through at airport again somehow.

Basic facts:

1. Are countries with low levels of covid in a better position than those with high levels as we move through the vaccination phase? Yes
2. Is vaccine alone the solution to covid? No
3. Is it possible for every country to try to reduce covid? Yes
4. Will every country choose to try to do this? No
5. Is is politically/electorally better for the UK government to pretend they can't reduce/manage covid? Yes

We can all look forward to comparing our situation in summer, at Christmas, next year. UK has fucked up and is still fucking up. Nothing I can do about it, just have to 'live with it'.

Oaktree I’m sure we used to disagree on something can’t remember what, but I’m glad we agree on this

Golden oh I didn’t know that. It’s incredibly hard to contain.

The objective here seems to be a flu like level of hospitalisation and so on. We still have it but not at crisis levels. I reckon other countries will follow as cost is high otherwise and if weak measures are in place likely won’t work.

We will have half the population with some degree of protection by the end of the weekend. There is a higher percentage of those most likely to spread the virus, because they have probably had covid already. Treatments are improving all the time and Cambridge have just stated that one of the anti-viral coatings for masks really does work. The London underground is not finding covid traces on surfaces.

The question should not be about eliminating covid but when and how we open up. We need still more of the population vaccinated, we need more hospital beds freed up first. Then we need to release sectors that are little risk. we need to vaccinate people in high risk occupations - meat factory workers should be given priority. We need to vaccinate prison staff.

We have to hope the government learns from its failures last year. Garden centres, other than cafes, need to be open when people want to buy bedding plants - little risk, economic gain. Self catering accommodation has not been the cause of outbreaks. Outdoor attractions have not been a source of outbreaks. Driving for a walk is a restriction on freedom out of proportion to its benefits. Gyms, other than classes, have not been the cause of outbreaks. International travel, however, has been a problem. Meeting family or friends indoors is a risk.

Aren’t there a huge number of Australians who still can’t get home because of the numbers restricted by quarantine? How long can they be expected to have to stay away?

@MarshaBradyo ha yes! Apologies from me, I’m sure they’re required. I do think I’ve adapted my view as the situation has evolved. There is so much polarisation re Covid and I think this is the biggest hurdle to overcome going forward as a Society. My current bug bear is Zero Covid as it’s a waste of people’s energy and misleading. Before someone jumps on me yes I do understand the meaning of ZC.......still unachievable.

@ineedaholidaynow

Aren’t there a huge number of Australians who still can’t get home because of the numbers restricted by quarantine? How long can they be expected to have to stay away?

Not sure about this, the people I know who have needed to go have all gone.

Those who say with certainty that zero covid is impossible, do they think 'lower than currently covid' is possible? Or do they expect it to flatline, rise or fluctuate randomly?

I find people can easily state what they think won't/can't happen, but not what they think will/can.

People are very negative about covid, I feel so much more positive now the vaccines are truly here.

@PracticingPerson

Those who say with certainty that zero covid is impossible, do they think 'lower than currently covid' is possible? Or do they expect it to flatline, rise or fluctuate randomly?

I find people can easily state what they think won't/can't happen, but not what they think will/can.

People are very negative about covid, I feel so much more positive now the vaccines are truly here.

My will / can is that we don’t count cases as vaccination is done. Tweak vaccine

The best way for me to imagine it is flu scenario. We don’t alter behaviour or test community cases but do work with new variants for vaccine and accept level of deaths each year

@MarshaBradyo so do you expect cases to rise, fall, flatline or fluctuate?

We count flu cases, so if we treat covid the same we will count covid cases. I can't see any scenario where a government would not count covid cases tbh, as that would risk not knowing where/what new variants are, and then the vaccine couldn't be tweaked.

Aren’t there a huge number of Australians who still can’t get home because of the numbers restricted by quarantine?

Yes, there are. About 39,000 according to this article. Not to mention permanent residents who aren't Australian not even getting a look in. But yeah, everything is totally normal.

Given that even countries with a zero Covid policy have consistently had outbreaks Covid will be here for a long time yet. China has zero tolerance to the disease and has had cases in several areas it has then quarantined whole neighbourhoods and provinces. If the U.K. adopts this policy then we will be constantly on alert , I am not convinced we should live like this. Life needs to regain some sort of normality. The toll on people’s physical and metal health aside from Covid is to big a price to pay

I don’t think zero COVID is possible. We have lost the good will of large proportions of the population. We have people who do not believe in masks or social distancing, who cannot afford to isolate, think it’s only a cold, that people are over reacting, etc. The levels of mistrust in government, scepticism of new variants and financial insecurity above all, is why we will never be able to locate all cases in certain communities (I am not referring to race here, but disadvantage). People just will not engage in testing, isolating or vaccination to the levels needed.

I’m not saying it would necessarily be a desirable thing to even try given where we are now, just futile.

[quote PracticingPerson]@MarshaBradyo so do you expect cases to rise, fall, flatline or fluctuate?

We count flu cases, so if we treat covid the same we will count covid cases. I can't see any scenario where a government would not count covid cases tbh, as that would risk not knowing where/what new variants are, and then the vaccine couldn't be tweaked.[/quote]
We don’t test for flu in the community though?

We will count in same way through hospitalisation etc

Variants will be detected - I wouldn’t be surprised if testing occurred in hospital still to identify new variants.

Maybe they will keep testing it doesn’t interrupt life much but also we don’t isolate for flu. Just stay home if symptoms make us. Not always the case for Covid

But yes we’ll still do sequencing here and for other countries

@ineedaholidaynow

Aren’t there a huge number of Australians who still can’t get home because of the numbers restricted by quarantine? How long can they be expected to have to stay away?

@ineedaholidaynow no. They have a managed quarantine policy and people are gradually returning

Do you think that's such a big cost in comparison to how we've been?

Otherwise in Australia they live pretty much normally.