After lockdown...the sh*t will hit the fan

[Desperado40]

My biggest fear is not covid or if life will be ever back to normal. I know this will pass and we will be able to socialise, travel etc. at some point.
What’s keeping me awake at night, literally, is the state of affairs when we are out of the immediate covid crisis. There will be high unemployment, lots of businesses will go bust after support tap is off, mental health and general health crisis (think of the huge backlog of surgeries and treatments postponed!). But most of all, I ma fearingthe day when the government starts clawing billions spent back from us. I feel that our quality of life will be much worse (as a nation) than we realise. There is also brexit to add to it all. Has anyone got any positive views on this to share (and make me feel better?). Need some optimism desperately.

There will hopefully be some positives though. More wfh or work life balance ...

Once again good luck with that. As I said when mentioning workers' rights, employers who are desperately trying to build back are unlikely to have much patience with those asking for more and more because they've got the kiddies to look after - especially in the context of mass unemployment where there'll be plenty of others who'll want the job

I agree op, it keeps me awake too

I think we will have a "roaring 20s" in that we will be allowed out and encouraged to spend, for a period of time. Then the tax rises and benefits / public sector cuts will come.

@Thewiseoneincognito

Lockdowns won’t be ending anytime soon OP so this is a scenario you can push right to the back your mind. This thing is just getting started.

Hahahahahahhaaass You’re funny

We have much increased unemployment and large numbers ofbusinesses in trouble. Travel looks set to be disrupted for some time yet, with impacts on tourism and business travel.

I don;t foresee a roaring twenties thing.

Of course there are plenty who have saved through this and will therefore spend but will they really make up for all the spending those affected can't or won't be doing? No.

Plus Brexit will be even more of an issue.

So yes, I worry greatly about the next ten years too. And echo the sentiments about the rise of extremism. I am glad we have some sanity from the White House at least, as that will dampen the worst instincts of the Tories at least.

OP "But most of all, I ma fearingthe day when the government starts clawing billions spent back from us."

So do I.

Haven’t we got enough on our plates without fretting about what may or may not come to pass in five years time? This thread is a proper fucking doom fest.
Maybe just make the best you can of what we get! Roaring twenties/Great Depression/ good stuff/ more awful shite. Hand wringing now is borrowing trouble, you either worry for nothing or worry twice.

[quote Desperado40]@addicted2spaniels this is exactly my worry. I think that some people think all the billions on furlough and grants will just be forgotten and debt written off? Wait until we have start paying it all back.[/quote]
The government can't tax too highly because the economy depends on disposable income and confidence. To some degree.

There is a real opportunity for companies to move head offices out of expensive financial centres and people to be able to work remotely and save on housing and commuter costs and spread more of the wealth.

There is also the opportunity to be able to work and cooperate worldwide without the climate and economic costs.

People just want to see people, I think dinner dates will be more common than all paying a fortune to meet out. People who perhaps didn't will invite others into their homes.

Yes taxes will rise a bit, council tax will rise a bit, hopefully we can create a more informed society that if you want good universal services for all it costs a bit more but perhaps people who never before thought they would need state help (furlough) will have more empathy for those whom do and more generosity that your personal circumstances can change in a day and everyone deserves a safety net to be warm, fed and dry.

So yes a small, universal, increase in financial outgoings for a hopefully better society.

Or it can remain how it is, we all want everything as long as other people fund it.

Once released from lockdown people will want some fun - so yes, roaring twenties. More of that money spent in the uk as people decide to travel here instead of abroad. means more tax take.

Some businesses have done very well out of lockdown, although I doubt the government has any desire to tax them.

The longer term is up to all of us - stop buying so much foreign junk and spend money in your local community. Vote for a government that will reduce inequality rather than fuel it. Wear a mask voluntarily next winter and keep your hands clean so the NHS doesnt have to deal with flu and other winter infections. Eat a better diet so you are healthier.

New businesses will start up to replace some of those that have gone out of business. There will be jobs for those willing to look for them.

One of the things to grow in the 1920s was the amount of STI's sepcifically syphilis.

Just a heads up

After lockdown...the sht will hit the fan*

I do hope not, we've just spent quite a lot of money on a new misting fan on the assumption we'll can't go away this year and so will be stuck In the garden.

@YaYaWoahWoahYaYa

I'm a low earner, haven't gotten a penny during all this and have physically been in work the entire time. I won't have a roaring twenties because I do not have the money. My children and I will spend a lifetime paying it back all the same

But let's not be too gloomy, at least the upper middle class will have the time of their lives for a while. Maybe I'll be lucky enough to get a glimpse of in on social media every so often...

I’m sure those sat around at home on furlough will be very thankful for you helping out to pay their wages.

[quote AnaisNun]@Defenbaker

Have you met any teenagers?
Do you really think they’ll want to go bloody STRAWBERRY PICKING for “pennies”, after they’ve been so hugely shafted? And moreover- so that the money “saved” by Brexit (?!?!) can be “ploughed into the NHS” - mostly to look after older people? Again?!

How much must our kids sacrifice for older generations to make you happy?[/quote]
I don't understand your point. When I was a teenager and in my early twenties, I did all sorts of random jobs for very low pay (30 years ago). If you need to earn money, and there are jobs available, you do them and make the best of them, don't you? Or is there something about teenagers these days which makes them incapable or too precious.

Not sure this sort of thing can be ignored though - significant numbers of people are financially fucked: www.theguardian.com/money/2021/feb/11/covid-fuels-huge-rise-in-britons-at-financial-risk-warns-regulator

If the Tories go for more of their stupid, failed austerity nonsense we will really be in the shit.

I think there will be roaring aplenty.

No one is talking about the absolute collapse of the commercial property market and the devastating effect it will have on pension funds. I think it’s terrifying. Think of Birmingham - Debenhams gone, John Lewis gone, huge expanses of retail space just empty - how are they going to actually make money from that space?

There was an interesting article in the FT a few weeks ago about why British agriculture can't just employ casual labour for the harvest as it did 40/50/60 years ago. Basically, if I remember rightly it said that minimum wage laws on the one hand and the demands of supermarkets on the other means that farmers just can't make a profit employing inexperienced/casual workers to pick fruit on a paid-per-weight basis anymore.

@Hollyhead

No one is talking about the absolute collapse of the commercial property market and the devastating effect it will have on pension funds. I think it’s terrifying. Think of Birmingham - Debenhams gone, John Lewis gone, huge expanses of retail space just empty - how are they going to actually make money from that space?

Absolutely - and Topshop, DP etc.

My normally bouyant local centre is going to be empty.

All indications are that the economy will bounce back strongly and a lot of people have saved a lot of money so the theory is that will get fed back into the system. Regarding unemployment, a large part of that is in the hospitality and restaurant trade which was made up of overseas workers who have gone back. Retail was in shit street before and all Covid did was accelerate its demise. Ultimately people are going to get out and about in droves and everything will open up again to cater for and to maximise on that opportunity. Regarding taxation. You can’t squeeze too hard or you’ll suppress the economic outlook but yes, all this will have to be paid for eventually. On balance I believe the relief and excitement of being free of Covid will outweigh any pessimism. Just my opinion.

@TwoLeftSocksWithHoles

After lockdown...the sht will hit the fan*

I do hope not, we've just spent quite a lot of money on a new misting fan on the assumption we'll can't go away this year and so will be stuck In the garden.

Lol, thank you. I had a good laugh, which is quite rare nowaydays!

The crisis in non-Covid illness is going to be huge.

Didn't BJ today say it will be normal to wait 1 year for NHS treatment?

I guess that is after they clear the current 1 year of backlog or on top of that?

The NHS is going to need to be expanded to the same levels are the rest of the developed world to have any hope of catching up (e.g. in terms of drs/nurses per head of population, hospital beds per head of population etc).

@Hollyhead

No one is talking about the absolute collapse of the commercial property market and the devastating effect it will have on pension funds. I think it’s terrifying. Think of Birmingham - Debenhams gone, John Lewis gone, huge expanses of retail space just empty - how are they going to actually make money from that space?

Retail spaces will have to be repurposed or lay empty for the foreseeable. Or they demolish and redevelop the land for apartments. Retail needed to change and covid has just tapped it off the edge of the cliff.

@bellasmella

Geez people its about time you lot woke up. This is the new world order (look up on the WHO website - Charles Schwab), do some research (but not on google as it's censored). This is all done on purpose. Good old Boris has signed us up for this. The New World Order - you will have nothing and be happy. This is all going to plan for them. Lockdowns, kill off the small businessses, make people desperate for the 'jab'. Wake up and do research, it's your children's future.

You’re brave. Here have a 🛡 you’re going to need it.

I worry about the future of the NHS but think people will generally be happy to pay more tax to fund it. There are likely to be thousands of people with long term ongoing side effects or disabilities due to covid and people widowed/ orphaned as a result of covid, not to mention death toll and long term illness from delays in surgery/ cancer treatment, and this will all need to be funded somehow.
I think businesses will bounce back and adapt, people may need to retrain but there will be new opportunities.