After lockdown...the sh*t will hit the fan

[Desperado40]

My biggest fear is not covid or if life will be ever back to normal. I know this will pass and we will be able to socialise, travel etc. at some point.
What’s keeping me awake at night, literally, is the state of affairs when we are out of the immediate covid crisis. There will be high unemployment, lots of businesses will go bust after support tap is off, mental health and general health crisis (think of the huge backlog of surgeries and treatments postponed!). But most of all, I ma fearingthe day when the government starts clawing billions spent back from us. I feel that our quality of life will be much worse (as a nation) than we realise. There is also brexit to add to it all. Has anyone got any positive views on this to share (and make me feel better?). Need some optimism desperately.

Crime's down overall because fewer people are out and about. Yes it'll rise when we all start going out again but I don't think there will be anarchy.

There's huge pent up demand for all kinds of discretionary spending which will be good for the economy. Agree with a pp about local businesses: I for one will definitely be supporting them. Most people won't be going abroad this year and buying anything sent from outside the UK as an individual now means taxes and charges so I guess we're kind of going to be forced to buy British anyway.

So I think there will be a good degree of bounce back when we lift restrictions.

BUT we're still going to be fucked by Brexit. But we always would have been anyway.

Great to see some with positive outlook on this. My big worry is that with higher prices and (very likely) higher taxes we will not be able to afford to have the roaring 20s scenario. Or it will be very short lived. I hope I am wrong.

I think it's going to be interesting. There is no doubt some will suffer dreadfully - I am so worried about friends in the arts in particular but obviously there are lots of families who will lose homes etc. But equally I am very confident that there is still a lot of money about, many businesses have boomed, some have saved a lot and overall we are a society that has been starved of fun. There is going to be a bounce back and people are going to spend like mad. I know I am going to be signing up for every social group thing I can as far as my budget will allow me. I want a lot of weekends away too. I want to grab life while I can. No one knows what's ahead even out of a pandemic.

There's good and bad in everything is my motto.

@Rosehip10 you got in there before me

There is a fair bit in savings I can’t remember stat but higher than usual. Hence the strategy to get people to spend and unlock it.

I do think there will be a good bounce. And hopefully with vaccine updates no too bad a ride.

@Defenbaker

Have you met any teenagers?
Do you really think they’ll want to go bloody STRAWBERRY PICKING for “pennies”, after they’ve been so hugely shafted? And moreover- so that the money “saved” by Brexit (?!?!) can be “ploughed into the NHS” - mostly to look after older people? Again?!

How much must our kids sacrifice for older generations to make you happy?

@Rosehip10

The roaring 20s lead to a massive depression and market collapse in the end. Which lead to the fast rise of extreme ideologies.

Yes. I am surprised no one mentioned this.

[quote AnaisNun]@Defenbaker

Have you met any teenagers?
Do you really think they’ll want to go bloody STRAWBERRY PICKING for “pennies”, after they’ve been so hugely shafted? And moreover- so that the money “saved” by Brexit (?!?!) can be “ploughed into the NHS” - mostly to look after older people? Again?!

How much must our kids sacrifice for older generations to make you happy?[/quote]
@AnaisNun agree with you completely

And just for the record - I work in the arts, and covid has basically killed my career, and that of most of my friends. None of us have begrudged the sacrifice to keep people safe- but asking our kids also to keep paying the price or shouldering the burdens long after the crisis, is too much.

MaYBE the "support tap" will continue forever. I'm beginning to think yes.
I think the only plausible option now is to convert it into a form of universal basic income. Many businesses won't make it once the economic storm oil wears thin.

Tax is a worry for sure. Our council tax is going to go up by 5% which is loads. I hate council tax anyway because it's regressive and raising a regressive tax is always a bum move. UC getting cut too and no thousand pounds from Sunak to soften the blow but they're still raising the pension. So if that's an indication of where the burden will fall then low earners are going to be disproportionately worse affected.

Typical of a tory government that though.

@Waxonwaxoff0

I personally think we will have a "roaring 20s" scenario. Hopefully the people who are still working will want to get out and spend to help the economy, I will be one of them!

Or a 30s style depression.

@Inthevirtualwaitingroom

But what is the alternative. we will be ok

Tell that to the people committing suicide.

And as I walk down my high street to huge chain Sainsbury's , which is Theo not shop open, I see the local businesses with their shutters down and wonder how many will be left for me to support out of my hugely depleted Arts income... As far as I can see, the only businesses that have boomed are the huge multinationals, supermarkets and perhaps companies that make PPE 🤷‍♀️

@Waxonwaxoff0

I personally think we will have a "roaring 20s" scenario. Hopefully the people who are still working will want to get out and spend to help the economy, I will be one of them!

I think so too. We won't be able to move in tourist attractions and the restaurants that have survived this will be heaving. There will be a boom.

I want to drive to nice places and go to museums and antiques fairs, eat out and go to a coffee shop, shop in lovely shops. Can't wait.

I'm not insensitive or unaware about the businesses that won't get through this, but I will do my best to spend my money where I can.

I be actually agree that this period that the OP refers to is going to be really bleak.

I am worried about the social and economic fall out, but... I also reckon a whole new era of partying/festivals/loads of causal sex will begin. A new hedonism. Bring it on, I say!

@Waxonwaxoff0

I personally think we will have a "roaring 20s" scenario. Hopefully the people who are still working will want to get out and spend to help the economy, I will be one of them!

Yes definitely this.

I do worry about the NHS and the backlog/waiting lists

The 1920s nay have been a massive party for some but economically they were a period of decline and unemployment culminating in the Wall.StreetCrash of 1929 and the great depression. Be careful what you wish for.

@forinborin

Yes - and the NHS queue for "not covid, not cancer" that is currently at all-times long will probably cost many, many more lives and livelihoods.

then we need to be voting for a Government that is prepared to properly fund the NHS, contribute towards the cost of training health professionals, ensure that sufficient health professionals are trained (or allowed to emigrate from other countries without too much red tape), and be prepared to pay for it all with our taxes.

Of course, taxation will be the sticking point because we never are prepared to pay for it.

@knittingaddict well there should be plenty of house clearances and repossession sales to boost the antiques fairs...

Lordy that's true, the students will all go nuts. Even Loughborough will look like the wildest night out in ancient Rome when they all get back together.

If people think this is bad, this is the tip of the ice berg.

We face years if not decades of austerity, dire consequences of a year of "Covid only" treatment by the NHS, budget cuts across the board including the NHS and education, millions joining the ranks of the unemployed, and massive tax increases.

The billions being thrown at this pandemic has to be paid back.

Skip F Scott Fitzgerald and go straight to John Steinbeck

I would assume the "pennies" reference was to the time when the poster picked them, it would be more now! Why on earth shouldn't a teenager take on a summer job, most are keen to do so to earn their own money.
I don't think they'd be doing it "for" anyone else, it's a job to get money not National service.