After lockdown...the sh*t will hit the fan

[Desperado40]

My biggest fear is not covid or if life will be ever back to normal. I know this will pass and we will be able to socialise, travel etc. at some point.
What’s keeping me awake at night, literally, is the state of affairs when we are out of the immediate covid crisis. There will be high unemployment, lots of businesses will go bust after support tap is off, mental health and general health crisis (think of the huge backlog of surgeries and treatments postponed!). But most of all, I ma fearingthe day when the government starts clawing billions spent back from us. I feel that our quality of life will be much worse (as a nation) than we realise. There is also brexit to add to it all. Has anyone got any positive views on this to share (and make me feel better?). Need some optimism desperately.

It'll be a bit of both.

We may well be taxed more, but frankly people like my household should be taxed more, we're not going to go hungry exactly.

I think it may be a grim time for our high streets - lots of shuttered shops and businesses, big town centres in particular are hit hard because they don't even have people who live in the area; I really hope some way will be found for 'ordinary' people to move into the centre of major cities to keep them alive.

I am very worried for the arts - we're going to lose theatres, orchestras, opera companies, theatre companies, I try not to think too much about it as it's so upsetting.

I think there will be an interesting new work-life balance for many, with businesses able to hire all around the country and even the world to get the best people.
I don't believe for a moment that governments will 'power grab' - they gain absolutely nothing by this; no one's 'obeying' them out of immense respect for Boris Johnson or anything, plus they lose huge amounts of tax revenue etc by limiting movement.

I don’t think people realise how many pubs and bars have gone bust, they have been royally fucked over. They are really not going to spring open again when lockdown ends. The money that the government gave to help support these businesses was not enough.

Prices in restaurants will be pushed up to try and claw back some of the money that has to start being repaid back soon. Most of the high street shops are only there because they are sitting on a massive loan.

Only the wealthy will be able to eat out and go on holidays and the class divide will be even greater than it was.

The government lent a lot of money out and for some business that needs to start being repaid back soon, we will see that reflected in the price rises in coffee shops, clothes shops, shoe shops, bars, restaurants, little farm shops.

So whilst there may be a roaring 20s bounce back - it will be rich people dancing and enjoying life and poor people struggling..

I’m actually really worried about the crash which will come. People have been too focused on what is happening now rather what is waiting down the road for us.

I am very pessimistic about the future. I think we will see more extreme weather and flooding, higher prices and unrest.

I worry about the future of the NHS but think people will generally be happy to pay more tax to fund it.

Perhaps it will go that way but I think long waiting lists may mean those that can afford to go private, will go private. They won't want to pay for a public health service that's just for the poor people. Bit like how few people care about funding social housing now.

I think OP you are right to be concerned about the unemployment levels that are and will come. Already look at the shop closures, which will only increase. As for the mental health crisis, I expect we will never know the real impact, in part because much is hidden and may take months if not years to come out. Though by contrast there will be those who are so relieved or even delighted to be able to visit loved ones again or travel.

If riots do happen (and I think they should have happened ages ago), that can only be a good thing. I expect there will be lots of them this summer.

Once furlough ends and the DWP is back to sanctioning those that don't fulfil their claimant commitment, then yes, I predict a riot.

As someone else said

"I’m planning to spend my money as much as possible with smaller businesses and restaurants who have survived."

I will eat out as much as possible. Have weekends away in smaller guest houses etc and attempt to support smaller businesses.

Amazon... Tesco....etc can go jump --- they really need to be taxed much more since they have been open for business and taken a huge share of the market when other businesses have been forced to close

Riot are NOT a good thing.... shops get smashed up, people get hurt, police get hurt, people might die..... stealing, looting.... businesses that are struggling being smashed is not good... rioting is never good.

Peaceful protest a different matter

The Twenties were only Roaring for the lucky few.
For the rest there was grinding poverty, and, depending on where you were in the world, hyperinflation (cash in wheelbarrows), and the rise of conflicts which resulted in WW2.

What's more likely is that we all ALL be paying more tax, one way or another, whether we like it or not. It won't just be direct taxes which go up (income tax, council tax, NI) but indirect taxes too (VAT, fuel tax etc).

I think it’ll be grim. I think it’ll be roaring 20’s for maybe 6 months, then the depression will become apparent as the party euphoria is unsustainable. It’s not just COVID, it’s the credit crunch being the can kicked down the road, eventually it can be kicked no further.

To be fair, and maybe I read it wrong - but I don’t think people were trying to say that it’ll be exactly the same as the 1920s - just that it’ll be good and it’s, y’know, the 20s.

@Waxonwaxoff0

I personally think we will have a "roaring 20s" scenario. Hopefully the people who are still working will want to get out and spend to help the economy, I will be one of them!

The roaring 20s were only roaring for the privileged few.

The signs are showing we heading towards a double dip recession. The last time that happened we seen a 25% inflation.

I don’t think people realise how fucked we are going to be.

Ah well at least the debt companies will do ok..

I think the NHS will be in crisis mode for years due to the backlog.

I think lots of business will use this opportunity to change how they work, for the better.

Some business will cling on to old ways of working and find they are not as attractive to a lot of potential employees.

I also think many people will seek to have a better work life balance and part of this will be investing in the place they live and spending money locally.

I'm optimistic we are going to see a more balanced society as people realise that people on benefits are not another class, they are people they know who have always worked hard but life got shit.

I am definitely an optmist.

I am very worried for the arts - we're going to lose theatres, orchestras, opera companies, theatre companies, I try not to think too much about it as it's so upsetting.
@Echobelly lucky for you that you CAN try not to think about it. There are many for whom this is their income, which has now gone. A bit more than upsetting g

I expect all costs of living to rise for years. The NHS is a big conundrum.
As I have a minor issue I am prepared to pay privately after I have had the vaccine.
I do feel for those who have lost jobs . Retired now but I was made redundant after the financial crash and after a few years on the temp circuit called it a day.
I also feel for those in education as the children are our future as the song goes.

All this is what the government should be grovelling about. In the arts, people have devoted their lives to their craft, be now they are wondering if they will ever perform again, as the government has killed their industry dead.

I won’t be going out spending. I’ve saved so much from not buying new clothes, make up, coffees etc and by not eating out all the time.

@Hammonds

The signs are showing we heading towards a double dip recession. The last time that happened we seen a 25% inflation.

I don’t think people realise how fucked we are going to be.

Ah well at least the debt companies will do ok..

yes, indeed. And insolvency firms - someone I know just got headhunted back to that sector!

@bellasmella Get yer tin foil hat off.

I won’t be participating if the government do a “spend out to help out” style scheme. One of the few things I have control over is my spending and I won’t be dictated to over that.

@Hammonds

The signs are showing we heading towards a double dip recession. The last time that happened we seen a 25% inflation.

I don’t think people realise how fucked we are going to be.

Ah well at least the debt companies will do ok..

The UK and world economy are in an entirely different place to 1974/5. The future doesn't look healthy at all - and I suspect people really won't like basic tax rate rises that will likely be necessary - but 25% inflation really isn't on the cards.

No one is talking about the absolute collapse of the commercial property market and the devastating effect it will have on pension funds

I agree completely, but the private property market may be no better if there's a crash driven by folk simply not being able to afford current prices

The recent bounce in prices caused by the stamp duty race has been especially ridiculous, and I cringe at the potential for yet more negative equity. Apart from folk who have to move, what would possess anyone to buy right now?

It won’t be anything like the roaring twenties. There was no internet then. The high street will be decimated and the likes of Amazon will dominate. Commercial property will crash as will all of the businesses that service them including local coffee shops. We will look back and think WTF did we sit back and let them destroy everything.