Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th Feb

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Some differing (well not very) views on the science and the decisions here, including our friend Reicher:

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/22/england-covid-roadmap-lockdown-experts-view

Vaccines were pretty low yesterday - only 141k - the lowest daily number since 11 January

boys3, as always, thank you for the specimen date analysis. Looks like numbers for England are still going down.

One nation that does not look great based on the trend is Scotland:

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=Scotland

Cases might have plateaued (I am just hoping it's a temporary overhang from the cold weather). If they rise next week, everyone will start blaming schools even though the current trend has clearly nothing to do with them.

@sirfredfredgeorge

So it was mostly a larger lag on the Thursday/Friday numbers, that was after the snow wasn't it, so not people swapping to postal due to snow or labs being delayed by employees not getting there?

Is there any explanation?

I'm not sure how easy these will be to read as there are four graphs on one page to allow hopefully simpler comparison.

Each plots since end of last August through to today the % of cases with a specimen date:

• within 1 or 2 days of the reporting date (top left)
• within 1 to 3 days of the reporting date (top right) - currently hovering near to the 95% mark
• within 1 to 4 days of the reporting date (bottom left) - currently around 98%
• within 1 to 5 days of the reporting date (bottom right) - the 5 day lag as used on the government dashboard

So a rather long winded way of saying delays in reporting do not look to be happening, and are not an issue.

One of my schools of thought is that the numbers with the bad weather were artificially suppressed, as people did not only delay getting a test they just did not get a test at all full stop. So the week on week comparison gets a bit skewed.

@boys3 that’s interesting. If delays in reporting aren’t happening is the share of positive tests higher proportionally? I.e of all those tested for covid how many tested positive. As you would expect numbers of tests conducted to go down during cold weather. According to this positivity rates are around 2%
ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed?time=latest&region=Europe

I think it means the curve looked steeper the last few weeks of cold weather than it actually was. I don't know the % reductions, but say it as 30% and 25%... If there were missed tests and the real reduction was 25% and 20%, then now it looks like 10% below because the previous drop looked bigger than it was.

I may have confused matters further with this, especially without the actual numbers, if so just ignore me!

Thanks Boys3 for the graphs on population density - it’s something that interests me living in fairly a rural area, though not too far from a town with significant wards of deprivation.

As pointed out, the deprivation may be more relevant.

[quote Notmulan]@boys3 that’s interesting. If delays in reporting aren’t happening is the share of positive tests higher proportionally? I.e of all those tested for covid how many tested positive. As you would expect numbers of tests conducted to go down during cold weather. According to this positivity rates are around 2%
ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed?time=latest&region=Europe[/quote]
We probably need to look more specifically at pillar 2 positivity and within that the very significant difference between PCR and LF tests; and additionally now recognising the impact of P2 PCR surge testing on the overall PCR P2 positivity rate.

LFTs are currently around 60% of pillar 2 tests, with around 0.4% positivity. Or 1 of every 250 tests being positive.

PCR pillar 2 currently around 5.5% and showing a good downward trend, although surge testing inflates the rate of decline.

I think it means the curve looked steeper the last few weeks of cold weather than it actually was.

Yes, it is a very intuitive explanation and I would not have worried about the number of cases but I also do not like the Zoe trend. I know Zoe's team is reviewing the methodology but some areas (e.g Midlands, North East, Scotland) look worse than others.

I am hoping the numbers will start going down more meaningfully now when the weather is better and people are less tempted to socialise indoors. I also hope there are no new "variants of concern" circulating unnoticed.

The latest Early Years figures have just been published. Cases in Early Years are not going down.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963211/Reported_coronavirus_COVID-19_notifications_by_registered_early_years_and_childcare_settings.csv/preview

Those early year figures, and the plateau in them, are a worry (I have a personal investment since I sent my toddler back to nursery yesterday!). I wish they'd give more detail in that report, and I do wonder if more settings are now open - lots of people on MN were discussing places that stayed closed in Jan but have now reopened but I don't know if that was common (all the nurseries around me stayed open throughout)?

This isn't data, more anecdote, but I thought it was interesting on the nocebo effect being felt in Germany regarding the AZ jab - and a really sobering reminder of the real world impacts of some of the less responsible public speculation about the vaccines from political leaders:
www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/02/21/costs-rising-exponentially-europes-disinformation-war-vaccine/

That Early years news goes with our local area.

If you look at the heat map, we have very little in all ages at all until end of October (half term).
Then in November 10-14 especially starts rising but so does 15-19 (no unis in our borough).
Then you can see where the local secondary schools shut and those start going down and then, a week after they reopen, they zoom straight back to purple, followed by 45-60 age (parents) then everyone else.

Then they go down over Christmas, but all children go back up into Purple over 1st January (Christmas mixing?).Secondary goes down quickly, primary takes longer-not sure if that's the one day back (I knew 3 schools that had to isolate due to that 1 day day) or because more children are going into primaries.
Now children aged 5-19 are the lowest. But 0-4 has stayed up in dark blue/purple until about a fortnight ago, which is longer than most of the other age groups. They look like they might again be going up again now.

I haven't really been following everything for a while as too much real life shit but I have been concerned that the early years transmission rates are higher than ever in comparison to the data from the autumn.

My very basic concern is that those bars on the graphs in primary and secondary will look proportionally large in a few weeks time.

That's interesting, @MargaretThursday - it doesn't seem to be the case for my area. Whereabouts (roughly) are you?

I wonder whether nursery aged children are currently more likely to be tested, since you need a negative test to send them back in if they develop any symptoms, whereas the parents of school aged children are less likely to have them tested if they won't be in school anyway?

@Hardbackwriter
SE I think we got a good dab at the Kent variant in November/December.

My parents, up in Lancashire, have almost no purple in the under 19s categories (do have uni students in their area), but again, since January 1st 0-4 is on average darker than 5-15, and I'm guessing that's because the Kent variant isn't as rife there because their numbers/100k in October were comparable to ours in November.

It does look like we'll be in for a bit of a bumpy ride with schools over the next few months - well until they approve a vaccine for children and get them jabbed tbh - I can't see any other way back to normality for schools.

The vaccination programme will help keep rates down a little bit in schools, as some kids will have been bringing Covid into schools having picked it up off a family member, so especially once they get cracking through the parent age groups. (Vaccinating teachers would also help here). And in secondary the extra testing may help a bit. But I'm sure we'll see continued outbreaks and kids sent home at times until they can vaccinate them.

For England as a whole, rates in under 4s are low (65/100,000). However, as this age group would most likely be asymptomatic, this might just be that they are not being tested (and perhaps parents would prefer their child just self isolate rather than put them through an unpleasant test)

The transmission rates in early year settings are higher than they were in autumn but, as far as I can see, they are still low in absolute terms. What really matters is the percentage of early year settings experiencing outbreaks and this percentage is still very low. According to BESA, there are about 23,500 nurseries in the UK. England probably accounts for 85% of those. 40 nurseries reported outbreaks in week 6. 40 out of 20,000 is a very small number even if the bar on the PHE surveillance report might look high optically.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases#card-recent_7-day_case_rates_by_specimen_date change that to percentage change, and you can see there is a reduction in the rate of fall, but it's still showing almost -20% on the last full date, even with some flattening since then it will still be significant drops.

And 7 days to 17th Feb is just the same as 7 days to 19th Jan.

Just by the by, I noted snuck away in the DfE guidelines yesterday that the definition of outbreak has been changed.

@Piggywaspushed
How have they changed it?

Instead of tow cases in 10 days it is now 14.

Two... sorry.

So two cases in 14 days.

@ceeveebee as I said, anecdotally my experience is that toddlers in nursery are tested a lot as otherwise it's two weeks off for every sniffle - we've tested ours four times - but of course that's only a subset of all 0-4 year olds