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Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th Feb

999 replies

NoGoodPunsLeft · 09/02/2021 07:19

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

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55
JanFebAnyMonth · 21/02/2021 23:00

All papers reporting that all children will return to school on 8 March.

Outdoor mixing from 29 March.

4 new "tests" for if it's safe to progress to the next stage, including that any new variants don't "take root" or words to that effect.

Firefliess · 21/02/2021 23:16

@JanFebAnyMonth

All papers reporting that all children will return to school on 8 March.

Outdoor mixing from 29 March.

4 new "tests" for if it's safe to progress to the next stage, including that any new variants don't "take root" or words to that effect.

And interestingly they've not said the R has to remain below 1 at all times - meaning they could be planning to allow cases to rise a bit once most people are vaccinated as you could have higher transmission then without more hospital admissions or deaths.
boys3 · 21/02/2021 23:27

@Firefliess

I'd say those graphs show a very weak correlation, if any *@boys3. I'm not sure population density is that big a factor. People don't spend their time neatly spaced out standing in the countryside do they? They go to workplaces, schools, pubs, etc which all have much the same population densities in rural areas as they do in urban areas. Or they're at home, but the virus doesn't jump though walls, even if you live in a city. Public transport usage may be a factor (clearly riskier than driving, which is more popular in rural areas), and the nature of local industries - so areas that are normally reliant on things that are closed currently (eg tourism) or where the people are vaccinated like care homes (mostly - @ancientgran*!) are probably better placed to see declining rates than other areas. We were talking about NE Lincs earlier - what's the main industries there? Fishing? Call centers? Factories? Maybe things that haven't closed much with the current lockdown? It's not a big tourism area certainly.
I’d agree they show very little if anything. But someone asked and as they only took next to no time to create no great effort expended.Smile

deprivation and age would be more worthwhile.

Back at the very start of the pandemic, or at least not many weeks into it, there was a vulnerability index published by MSOA. I’ve always thought it would be interesting to plot actuals against it.

But somehow just never got round to doing it.................

boys3 · 21/02/2021 23:39

it’s not a big tourism area

Is Cleethorpes not a regular haunt? 😂

Plus the delights of Skegvegas a little to the south. Whilst who in their right mind does not hanker for a weekend break in Scunthorpe?????

Joking aside tourism may actually be one of the biggest industry sectors on the Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire coast.

Firefliess · 21/02/2021 23:47

@boys3 Don't get me wrong -i love your graphs. It's great to see what things do correlate, as well as what doesn't.

On the other hand your attempts to convince me to consider NE Lincs as a prime tourist destination....Hmm

JanFebAnyMonth · 21/02/2021 23:51

I was once offered a job in a chip shop in Mablethorpe.... note it stopped at offered....

Interesting point about R rate after mass vaccination, yes.

piggywaspushed · 22/02/2021 07:28

I haven't read all the way back but it seems to me that no one has realised that the main employers in NE Lincs are food packing factories, fish factories and greenhouses - all generally with very poor employment practices and employees living together and being minibused to work.

By the by, apparently people in less densely populated areas do have a greater sense of personal space. they stand further apart and talk more loudly. They become stressed very quickly when they visit a busy town or city. This also varies form country to country with Scandinavians having the least truck with people entering their personal zone.

Firefliess · 22/02/2021 08:11

That's interesting @piggy re people from rural areas.

But re NE Lincs - that fits with what I was saying. Those types of work, as you say, bring people close together. And they're also not industries that have been closed by the lockdown or where people can work from home.

piggywaspushed · 22/02/2021 08:21

Yes, indeed : and with shocking attitudes to H and S as the number of level crossing deaths of workers in crowded minibuses illustrates.

ancientgran · 22/02/2021 08:51

deprivation and age would be more worthwhile. Devon doesn't do that well on deprivation. It tends to be extremes, very wealthy on estates, well off retirees from elsewhere but you also have alot of deprivation in places like Plymouth.

There is also a big issue with the number of GPs which I understand is a problem in Plymouth, don't know personally so that is from local news on BBC but can't see why they'd be lying about it.

You also get lots of homeless or inadequately housed in some of the seaside towns. Lots of people seem to think if they are going to live on the dole it might be more fun at the seaside than in a run down city.

I did read somewhere that if you look at all the indicators of deprivation then Torbay was one of the most deprived places in the country.

boys3 · 22/02/2021 09:27

[quote Firefliess]@boys3 Don't get me wrong -i love your graphs. It's great to see what things do correlate, as well as what doesn't.

On the other hand your attempts to convince me to consider NE Lincs as a prime tourist destination....Hmm[/quote]
So a way to go before Cleethorpes can be considered as the new Southwold Grin

TheSunIsStillShining · 22/02/2021 10:07

Anybody here familiar with Japan?
It's interesting that even though they have schools open their numbers are going down. And I'd like to confirm what they are doing.
As far as I can tell it's all about masks and hygiene and some SD. But I'm not sure if I'm correct.

ATieLikeRichardGere · 22/02/2021 11:20

I have previously read that Japans strategy focuses on identifying clusters and uses more backwards contact tracing - in a sense focusing on k as well as R. Also, see attached their public health guidance which differs quite a bit from ours. However it’s too soon to analyse why they’ve been so successful and I’m sure there’s a lot of factors at play.

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th Feb
ATieLikeRichardGere · 22/02/2021 11:23

This is interesting from PHS and universities of Edinburgh and Strathclyde:

“By the fourth week after receiving the initial dose, the Pfizer and Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccines were shown to reduce the risk of hospital admission from Covid-19 by up to 85% and 94%, respectively, they found.”

ceeveebee · 22/02/2021 11:29

I have friends who live in Japan. This might be stereotyping but in their view as a general rule, the concept of non compliance is completely alien to their culture - the social pressures to comply are huge and they do not need strict enforcement

Also I believe they did close borders and use quarantine hotels

MRex · 22/02/2021 11:30

It's interesting that Oxford AZ showed as slightly more protective, I would expect them to end up about the same because both encourage the same antibodies ultimately. Perhaps more of the very elderly had Pfizer.because it was available sooner. Would be good to know if the figures were age stratified.

TheSunIsStillShining · 22/02/2021 11:57

@ceeveebee
Yes, here are their travel measures:
www.japan.travel/en/coronavirus/#measures_government

I was also looking at traveler numbers. it was only 1.4m from japan in all 2020.
(statistics.jnto.go.jp/en/graph/#graph--latest--figures)

Uk doesn't have up to date numbers, but just in Q2 almost a mil people traveled. In Q1 it was more than 13m ppl. And Q3 was the summer holiday season so my guess would be more than a mil travelers.

It does look like travel has a significant effect on numbers. If only we lived on an island like the japanese....

What caught my eye is that they had a spike in Jan, but even with schools open, minimal restrictions to economy (compared to ours) they drove it down quite quickly.
Again, the issue is that I have no knowledge of japan schools for instance - class sizes, etc.... So it's hard to compare.

ATieLikeRichardGere · 22/02/2021 12:06

Slightly more info on the study here but not much: www.itv.com/news/2021-02-22/vaccine-programme-linked-to-substantial-reduction-in-covid-19-hospitalisations-study-finds

everythingthelighttouches · 22/02/2021 12:15

Sorry if someone already posted it but just wanted to recommend to you all the latest episode (15) of “How to vaccinate the world” by Tim Harford.

www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000sgrv

It is on new variants and it’s got Adam Kucharski, Peter Hotez and Emma Thompson.
All brilliant scientists.

It is really, really good!!!

boys3 · 22/02/2021 12:15

Torbay not quite on par with somewhere like Blackpool for deprivation , but, and this surprised me a bit, it is in the 15% of most deprived councils in England. So certainly plenty of deprivation there.

16% of its LSOAs in the 10% most deprived nationally (England)

In contrast of the Devon district councils only North Devon has any LSOA in the 10% most deprived nationally.

yet most are at best middling in terms of deprivation relative to the rest of England. In terms of ranking of average deprivation score where 317th is the least deprived (Hart district council).

Torridge 99th,

North Devon 132nd

West Devon 162nd

Mid Devon 176th

Exeter 189th

Teignbridge 194th

South Hams 229th

East Devon 244th, just squeezing into the top quartile of least deprived authorities.

Although in terms of cumulative confirmed cases per 100,000, the five lowest councils are in Devon, the 7th and 8th lowest are in Devon. Just Exeter outside the lowest ten and at 35th lowest in only just outside the lowest 10%.

In terms of crude deaths per 100,000 (within 28 days of positive test) South Hams lowest in England. West Devon 2nd, North Devon 4th, Torridge 6th, Exeter 9th, Mid Devon 10th, Teignbridge 11th. Which just leaves East Devon at 24th, but well inside the lowest 10% of councils.

In terms of median age from the last ONS mid year estimate Exeter very youthful, and in the most youthful 10% of councils. South Hams 4th oldest. West Devon 5th, East Devon 7th. All three with a median age over 50. Torridge 14th, Teignbridge 23rd, North Devon 42nd. Mid Devon 65th, median age there still 46.7. Median for the SW is 44.1, not surprisingly highest median age of any region. England median exactly 40. Devon overall median is 47.5, meaning Cumbria, North Yorkshire and East Sussex with slightly higher median age.

Which means I must come back to my original point about there being something in the water down there. Smile

Doomsdayiscoming · 22/02/2021 12:46

Just want to get my numbers right before my brain implodes.

We are 4 weeks post hospitalisation peak (PHP) in UK? Plan is to open schools in 2 weeks time. And then see how it goes for 5 weeks before doing anything else major?
So we will be 11 weeks PHP?

11 weeks PHP wave 1 we had 2.5k in hospital (roughly early July).

I know we had a higher peak in Wave 3, but surely this is ridiculous?

We’ll have under 2.5k in hospital in weeks, not months. Yet we are going to wait 11 weeks PHP to do anything major? (Beyond schools and then probably Ro6).

CoffeeandCroissant · 22/02/2021 13:09

[quote ATieLikeRichardGere]Slightly more info on the study here but not much: www.itv.com/news/2021-02-22/vaccine-programme-linked-to-substantial-reduction-in-covid-19-hospitalisations-study-finds[/quote]
Full preprint for the Scotland study is here: drive.google.com/file/d/162PJKbIKUFEjLevf_xZZjmuGmhB2v5jO/view

Protocol is here: bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/6/e039097

PHS press release is here: publichealthscotland.scot/news/2021/february/vaccine-linked-to-reduction-in-risk-of-covid-19-admissions-to-hospitals/

CoffeeandCroissant · 22/02/2021 13:10

Clickable link: drive.google.com/file/d/162PJKbIKUFEjLevf_xZZjmuGmhB2v5jO/view

ATieLikeRichardGere · 22/02/2021 13:20

Thank you @CoffeeandCroissant !

MRex · 22/02/2021 13:42

Thank you @CoffeeandCroissant! Results comparable when restricted to over 80s, so both have the same effect and actually more elderly had Oxford AZ. It will be interesting to see when the French and Germans announce AZ is proven effective in the elderly, or if they'll pretend to miss the report rather than risk raising again the topic of why there aren't enough EU doses.