Astrazeneca less effective against mild illness in SA variant

[bathsh3ba]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55967767

NB this was a sample of 2000, not yet peer reviewed.

I'm beginning to wish they wouldn't report incomplete findings so publicly. All the commentary suggests it's too early to say if this is a big problem or not - so why tell us?!

But there won't be just 150 SA cases will there
No but there will also be a lot more than 210,000 UK variant cases.

5 - 10% of positive tests are sampled so even if you factor up (OBVIOUSLY ROUGH ESTIMATE)

If 5% = 150 SA cases then it could be estimated that

100% = 150 *20 = 3,000 SA cases

Today the findings are that AZ are only 22% effective against this strain

Shit I hadn’t heard it was that low.

Yes, but that figure doesn't mean very much, look at those confidence intervals (!) lots of uncertainty, too few events, unclear what they mean & difficult to draw conclusions.

www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/new-covid-variant-south-african-strain-uk-cases/

I really hope this video reassures people about mutations.

I am worried that I have not explained things clearly and made it worse.

Don't know what else I can say

So at best, AZ is only 22% effective against SA mutation?? This is a disaster.

@StarCat2020 thank you very much for posting that link,

@doireallyneedaname

So at best, AZ is only 22% effective against SA mutation?? This is a disaster.

It's more complicated than that. There's a lot of information to read but there's very limited data so far.

@Tobee
Thank you

@Iremembertheelderlykoreanlady

Or you could flip that on its head and say that this shows the vaccine IS affective in preventing hospitalization and death from the SA strain.

No, you cannot.

Protection against moderate-severe disease, hospitalisation or death could not be assessed in this study as the trial group of 2,000 volunteers had an average age of 31 and were low risk.

@doireallyneedaname

So at best, AZ is only 22% effective against SA mutation?? This is a disaster.

In conclusion, this was a small study, so cannot answer the efficacy question with confidence, and protection against severe illness is currently unknown but probable. E.g. J&J vaccine (similar design) shows excellent protection (89%) against severe disease due to B.1.351 mobile.twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1358539975122419712

(B.1.351 = variant originally identified in South Africa.)

@Iremembertheelderlykoreanlady

Or you could flip that on its head and say that this shows the vaccine IS affective in preventing hospitalization and death from the SA strain.

That is also how I choose to view it

Although I guess that means with mild illness it could mean we transmit it still to others not yet vaccinated

My dear df who's had first dose of AZ vaccine saw this and is now despairing. My dm has been shielding since March as cev, and he's so stressed. Don't know how to (if I can) reassure him

Hopefully you will be able to when more information becomes available

It's interesting that I rarely go on the good news threads but any doom scrolling headline gets my attention. I read somewhere this is an evolutionary trait we are programmed to respond to threats as a survival mechanism rather than any 'cossetting back in the cave' and news provider instinctively know and package the news appropriately.

Looking at the doom threads is a bit like picking a scab.

all the orders gone in, who got there first, how quick can it happen? Feck it, "ye didn't order soon enough" and now after all that, the Oxford/astrazeneca vaccine is the one nobody wants. Literally nobody. This is why none of this shit should not be rushed. A huge first dose given, even Ireland has more second dose given per capita. It is shocking, the need for a Brexit validation and not shocking that it is all going wrong already.

So, I wonder how soon we’ll hear about boosters/ alternatives? (Another whose parents have been shielding and have just received the AZ vaccine).

How many cases do we think South Africa has at the moment?

Sunday Times article today covers it:

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/variant-what-co...

It's paywalled, but the key info is:

20,000 new cases per day one month ago.
4,000 new cases per day now.

1,600 deaths a day previously.
261 deaths last Friday.

No real vaccination coverage.
First person identified with SA variant wasn't 'Patient Zero', who could have been from elsewhere.
SA variant in 60 countries so not really 'the SA variant'.

Middle of January second wave saw 19% of tests positive.
Now 10.3% positive.

South Africa unlocking - reopening parks, rivers and beaches, easing alcohol sales ban, 9pm curfew pushed back to 11pm, restaurants allowed to serve wine..

Game reserves offering reductions of 90% but most (all?) flights to SA banned by the airlines.

Estimated 1.5m cases officially.
Studies of evidence suggest 6m or even 9m cases in reality.

45,000 official deaths.
Excess deaths seem to be 111-133k, so likely missed classifications.

Working back from the death numbers and the estimated cases, it could be 20m cases in all - 50% of the population.
= Herd Immunity?

I'm therefore finding it hard to be scared by this SA variant - if it burns itself out as we on here would expect (and has been shown in SA), we don't really need yet another vaccination for it.

I find it ridiculous that it seems we're going to end up getting battered by vaccines once? twice? three times per year?? alongside all the ingredients that are also in the vaccines.

It's just not normal and I find it hard to believe that even the most ardent 'pro-vaxxer' would think it was after living their lives to date with, at most, a yearly flu shot when they reach a certain (older) age.

@lighteincastlewindow

all the orders gone in, who got there first, how quick can it happen? Feck it, "ye didn't order soon enough" and now after all that, the Oxford/astrazeneca vaccine is the one nobody wants. Literally nobody. This is why none of this shit should not be rushed. A huge first dose given, even Ireland has more second dose given per capita. It is shocking, the need for a Brexit validation and not shocking that it is all going wrong already.

Yeah no one wants the AstraZeneca vaccine. Oh apart from us. And India, Argentina, Mexico and Brazil. For starters. You know tiny countries. With tiny populations.

I'll happily take my Covid vaccine and any boosters that are deemed necessary. Why on earth wouldn't I? As would my friends and family.

Rather be "battered by vaccines" than by Covid.

Hi I had mine on Friday, I'm 55 and black/Caribbean. I had the oxford az vaccine. I slept quite alot when I returned home. On Saturday afternoon I started to feel feverish...I took a lem sip and drunk several glasses of water in order to keep temperature down and, again, I slept alot. On Sunday I felt better. My arm is still sore and warm where I had the injection. I am fine otherwise. Try and plan the 48 hours after the vaccine in case you have to rest - thats my advice to those still thinking about doing it.

I was hesitant to take a vaccine, young and CEV, but do so on Friday. Got given the AZ, and now I feel like I should have gone with my gut and not got it. Big risk taking something that’s got less than a year of testing data behind it, which now seems that it won’t even protect me. Feeling so disheartened and fed up today

There's no data to suggest that any of the vaccines are not safe. If you are CEV you are at much higher risk from Covid. Even if you are young.

I am hoping the Moderna vaccine will come in March but I can't find any firm info on that. Anyone know?