Astrazeneca less effective against mild illness in SA variant

[bathsh3ba]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55967767

NB this was a sample of 2000, not yet peer reviewed.

I'm beginning to wish they wouldn't report incomplete findings so publicly. All the commentary suggests it's too early to say if this is a big problem or not - so why tell us?!

I think the potential implications of this have not yet sunk in for most people. If the Astra Zeneca vaccine doesn’t work against the SA strain (which is looking likely) and that strain becomes anywhere close to dominant in the UK, then most of our vaccination programme so far will have been a waste of time. And we won’t be releasing restrictions anytime soon, most likely not until after the autumn vaccination programme that’s been mentioned. Say the modified vaccine is available from October, we know it takes c. 5 months to vaccinate frontline workers, over 50s and the CEV.

Not sure what proportion may have had Pfizer or Moderna by then which I think are currently showing as performing better on the SA variant?

South Africa have suspended the Astra Zeneca vaccine programme

“South Africa will suspend use of the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab in its vaccination programme while scientists advise on the best way to proceed, the country’s health minister said on Sunday in comments reported by Reuters.

Zweli Mkhize was speaking after trial data showed the AstraZeneca vaccine offered only limited protection against mild disease caused by the 501Y.V2 coronavirus variant first identified in South Africa.” (Guardian)
It goes onto say there needs to be a shift from trying to achieve herd immunity to protecting people from hospitalisation.

Surely we have to get to the point where, like the flu, a vaccine will offer some protection but cases fluctuate year on year and sadly large number of people do die.

It's starting to seem like the coming years will be just a giant game of whack a mole against ever emerging variants, even if we could get on top of spread here it will just happen in another country and will inevitably spread everywhere other than those countries that are able to completely close their borders.
Feel completely fucking hopeless today.

Interestingly, I read reports that cases in South Africa are plummeting
Looking at the data it does show that but case numbers are not always reliable as numbers of tests can be varied due to lack of supply or availability.

However, the death rate in SA is also falling quite significantly which is very interesting.

@Beebityboo we don’t overly concerned ourselves with which flu strain is circulating each year, we sometimes have really bad years with high numbers in hospitals and deaths and some years not as bad. Vaccines are offered to the vulnerable and private vaccines for anyone who can afford to pay and wants one. That’s what will happen with COVID. Stay positive things will get better.

Thanks @CKBJ, I am trying. It's just so hard when the news is constantly changing from "everything will be fine" to "we're all doomed" sometimes within the same afternoon.

Surely we have to get to the point where, like the flu, a vaccine will offer some protection but cases fluctuate year on year and sadly large number of people do die

This is how I understand it (please correct me if I am wrong anyone).

Covid19 was not in existence before 2019 so no one on Earth had any prior exposure or immunity.

Spanish Flu (1918 - 1920) or H1N1 has been in existence for over a century now and is one of the strains of flu still circulating today.

H1N1 type was the one involved in swine flu in 2009.

As it has been around for so long people have already got varying levels of immunity to it.

I am not sure if I have made sense but maybe I have??

@Beebityboo

It's starting to seem like the coming years will be just a giant game of whack a mole against ever emerging variants, even if we could get on top of spread here it will just happen in another country and will inevitably spread everywhere other than those countries that are able to completely close their borders. Feel completely fucking hopeless today.

The 3 vaccines we have and are now using all work well against the 'UK' / Kent variant now dominant in the UK (accounts for around 90% of current cases). All the vaccine manufacturers are working on tweaked versions aimed a being more effective against the new variants, these may be available from September (would be used as boosters if every UK adult is vaccinated by then, so a third dose).

The 3 vaccines we have and are now using all work well against the 'UK' / Kent variant now dominant in the UK (accounts for around 90% of current cases)
Sorry but I am almost certain that we only have two vaccines at the moment - AZ & Pfizer.

Moderna has been approved but none of the doses have been delivered yet (ETA Spring 2021).

Driving me nuts. Are some people deliberately overlooking “mild”.

After nearly a year of being entombed with my CEV husband, I don’t care if I have a “mild” or even “moderate” illness.

It will protect us - both - from severe illness and death and allow us to see all of our kids and grandchild. That will do for us, thanks.

I think it's not a "yes it works" or "no it doesn't" but more about percentages? Obviously, there's a cut off point where the lower percentages make a vaccine not worth it.

We really don't yet have the data to know one way or another. There are factors of strain variations, age variations, clinical vulnerability, dominant strain etc etc,

Be interested to see the results for mixing first and second doses. Not sure whether if they are favourable people will be given their second dose of another vaccine.

@DenisetheMenace

Driving me nuts. Are some people deliberately overlooking “mild”.

After nearly a year of being entombed with my CEV husband, I don’t care if I have a “mild” or even “moderate” illness.

It will protect us - both - from severe illness and death and allow us to see all of our kids and grandchild. That will do for us, thanks.

I'm in a similar position to you. Unfortunately, the trial participants were, on average young and healthy.

It's very hard to deal with this when new pieces of information are constantly arriving. We're used to hearing info about drugs and treatments that are well established. Not unfolding in real time.

Thank god we've got such good sequencing here

I am in SA and this news isn't great for us. We received our first 1 million doses of AZ last week and the vaccination programme hasn't commenced as they went into test. Today the findings are that AZ are only 22% effective against this strain. The J&J is 76% effective, so the vaccination programme has been put in hold and health care workers will probably receive the J&J instead. What will happen to the 1 million doses? At the moment that isn't known, maybe given alongside another vaccination. The results of the Pfizer tests aren't yet released.

It's a bit of a blow.

Our cases have reduced quite a lot though. From 10 000 per day last month to around 3000 a day now.

Yes, Moderna from April making 3.

We really don't yet have the data to know one way or another
Exactly.

The MHRA approved the AZ vaccine in late December so all of the trial data occurred before the SA variant was in the UK.

Today the findings are that AZ are only 22% effective against this strain

Shit I hadn’t heard it was that low.

I know the professor on the Andrew Marr show said they still hope it will provide some protection for serious cases but I’ve not seen any other scientists back up that view.

@DenisetheMenace the limited results they have are not suggesting that if you catch the SA strain after having the vaccine you will only get a mild case. It’s suggesting that if you get a mild or moderate case the vaccine will make no difference to how ill you are/your outcome.

I don’t think it’s an immediate concern in the UK. But that variant could ramp up very quickly to become a very dominant strain (as happened with the Kent variant). My expectation is that restrictions will largely stay so keep the SA variant as low as possible until the autumn vaccine update is available.

I have to admit this has completely floored me. My parents had the AZ vaccine a couple of weeks ago. I was so hopefully and feel totally deflated now. Up to now I’ve always trusted something will get us out of this.

I'm in a similar position to you. Unfortunately, the trial participants were, on average young and healthy
I am almost certain that you are but just to clarify, are you in the UK?

Yes.

Also interested to know what the data from our surge testing is showing

How can people not see how this has been spun... This story could have one of 2 headlines and both woukd be correct. One sounds very positive and the other sounds terrifying... We all know what one the media will use....

Both headlines could be

1. az vaccine only offers limited protection against mild disease.

2. az vaccine shows high levels of infection against severe or moderate disease which will help reduce hospitalisations and deaths.

The point being regaurdless of if its less effective against mild disease or not... It will most certainly help reduce deaths and hospitalisations which is all we need to happen to lift restrictions.

Maybe we just need to carry on sitting tight?

Yes, that is how I had interpreted the article and I think Pfizer will be similar.

I think all the vaccines approved by the UK are the same so its incredibly important that we get transmission low so that we can test track and trace more effectively to prevent spread of the SA virus why we wait for boosters. I can't see boosters being available until Autumn so we go through this all again.

@Chatterbox1987 the AZ vaccine has now been pulled from the SA vaccination programme. I think that’s a pretty big indication of the seriousness of the issue.

@Chatterbox1987 the issue isn't hospitalisation. If there is large community transmission the virus will - will - mutate, and ultimately threaten the vaccine.