Astrazeneca less effective against mild illness in SA variant

[bathsh3ba]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55967767

NB this was a sample of 2000, not yet peer reviewed.

I'm beginning to wish they wouldn't report incomplete findings so publicly. All the commentary suggests it's too early to say if this is a big problem or not - so why tell us?!

Zem, there's an article in yesterday's online Observer worth reading by Prof David Spiegelhalter. In the Observer Opinion section.

It's sensibly and cautiously optimistic, pointing out that absence of evidence (because of the cohort trial data) isn't evidence of absence (of efficacy).

(Sorry can't seem to link.)

As many pp have said, the available trial data is sound - but there isn't enough of it yet in certain cohorts. However, ' 'bridging studies' are happening.

I keep on thinking about this. Can’t help but feel we are back to square one in the UK at least. If SA variant becomes dominant which is likely will thanks to our incompetent government, what happens to everyone that’s been vaccinated so far? Do we seriously start the whole process of vaccinating the majority of the population all over again with a booster? And then potentially every year?

Some articles I’m reading are suggesting it is likely to still prevent severe disease which would be a great outcome, but I can’t help but wonder why several countries are now halting the use of it.

Why aren’t we ordering more Pfizer?

How did we go from a nation that used to have grit and common sense to such a bunch of hysterical snowflakes?

Virus mutate all the time. You are 90%+ likely to survive the virus even if you are infected.

Stay indoors for the next 20 years while the rest of us will get on with things. I am done with Mumsnet.I

I think there is something to be scared about honestly. This 2000 person study only tells us that the vaccine is less effective. That's the only thing we really know. And we know the SA variant is here in the UK. If the vaccination works against the other variants ,surely it's only a matter of time that the SA variant becomes dominant, and we know how fast that can happen, a matter of months. The government are putting their positive propaganda on the BBC website but their actions say they are very much afraid of this S Africa variant spreading.

It's the dominant strain in SA and as a previous poster has said, their cases have plummeted despite no vaccination yet.
And its also not particularly thanks to their lockdown knowing the situation on the ground there. I suspect it just ripped.

Has Pfizer been tested against the SA variant does anyone know?

As far as I know, yes, and it’s still very effective

A lot of the data is based on very small groups, but although it may not protect against mild or moderate infection, it looks like all the vaccines currently being rolled out out protect against hospitalisation and death... which is what we actually need for the country (and NHS most importantly) to function.

A mild or moderate case after vaccination might actually be a good thing for most healthy individuals as their immune response would be very good after that.

However, it does mean that herd immunity is more complex and those very vulnerable who can't be vaccinated/those who refuse vaccination/those not scheduled to receive it/those who don't mount a good response to the vaccine due to perhaps unknown immune issues and of course all children are still (more or less) vulnerable as it would still be circulating.

... but then this is the situation we have always been in with other illnesses so will become the new normal with booster jabs targeted at 'best bet' mutations. We may still have some social distancing though if rates rise etc.

What I hadn't realised before is the technology for Pfizer jab (mRNA) genuinely has never been used before, this is the first time this kind of vaccine has ever been rolled out. Hence the temperatures required. AZ are using a more natural vaccine, using a a weakened common cold (adenovirus) that is along the lines of vaccines used in the past and AZ are not using a brand new pilot scheme.

I am not having the Pfizer vaccine after reading the article in the Times this morning, it seems to me that it IS totally untested. I do not buy into the anti vaxxers at all, but I can see why people are hesitant about accepting a brand new untested roll out.

The fact it works on SA variant is of little comfort to me. AZ will stop death and hospitalisation, so that is enough for me.

Did someone yesterday say they wanted to ask the government why they weren't doing enough to investigate the SA variant?

Pshaw!

All of this is utter bollocks. You can either believe a newspaper headline and be terrified, try reading the data from various studies with little or no understanding of the data or it's analysis; or you can listen to podium speakers who simplify the data and give us fairly blunt information.

If you think Valence and Whitty have whitewashed the data you haven't been listening, or think that when they say there isn't enough data yet they are lying.

If AZ as it is does not protect as much as others it will be modified and booster shots made available. But we need data first

Or the research into mixed vaccines might have some interesting outcomes.

Or all vaccines will have a weakness for any of the new strains.

Or maybe the limited efficacy will be enough to get us out of lockdown and back to some semblance of normal and the vast majority of people for whom covid will be a minor illness can stop reading the science and being scared by it!

The AZ vaccine does work, even with the SA variant it stops severe illness, hospitalisation and death, which is why we are continuing with it here in the UK (and elsewhere) If everyone catches covid and simply has a very mild illness there is no longer the fear of mass death and hospitals being overwhelmed is there.

So there is a great value in continuing with this, and then topping up in the future. It will still drive down the biggest problem which is death from covid.

So we are most definitely not back to stage one in the UK at all.

The issue clearly is that new variants can and will spring up almost anywhere, and the new ones could be much more severe than the last potentially. So the only way we are ever going to stop this virus is by closing the borders properly. Quarantine hotels for those that do arrive, and lock down until you have driven it out. That is the hard choice we are all facing. As per Australia and NZ models.

The only way to truly get on top of this is to continue to vaccinate and close the borders properly (and not a halfway house)

@speaksofty we are not but to stage one but there is currently no evidence that the AZ vaccine protects against the SA variant at all. All we know is it doesnt protect against mild-moderate disease from this variant. There is no data about its effectiveness in preventing severe illness caused by this strain. That's not the same as saying it prevents it.

Exactly. Saying that, it seems similar vaccines have been proven to protect against severe disease so I remain hopeful.

Just heard the guy heading the SA study on the Today programme. The conclusion that AZ will still protect against serious illness comes from comparisons with the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, not from the study of 2000 healthy young people, as I understand it. So I think it's too gloomy to say that we just don't know whether AZ protects against serious illness in the SA strain. There is some reliable data on that, it seems.

My parents have both just had AZ, so I am worried about this tbh.

Does anyone know how long it might take to develop a booster against the SA variant? I can hardly believe I'm asking this, so soon after all the positive news about AZ and my parents getting it 😞.

It is six months away the booster for AZ east

If it's proven that the AZ vaccine doesn't protect against mild/moderate Covid then I don't see how it's an issue. Every year we accept we might catch colds, flu etc so why is this so different? Providing it protects against severe illness and death then I think we are onto a good thing. We cannot expect to go through life avoiding every illness and at some point we will have to accept that Covid is no different.

Oxford University and AstraZeneca have started adapting the vaccine against this variant and will advance rapidly through clinical development so that it is ready for autumn delivery should it be needed," the AstraZeneca spokesperson said.

@colouringindoors

My dear df who's had first dose of AZ vaccine saw this and is now despairing. My dm has been shielding since March as cev, and he's so stressed. Don't know how to (if I can) reassure him

Just seen your post. I'm sorry. My parents also just had AZ. I'm trying to stay positive but it's hard.

Thanks speak.

If the booster is available by autumn, I assume that means we can't unlock anything before next year given it will take some time to administer? Easing over the spring/summer means the SA variant will become dominant (assuming the vaccines block a decent % of transmission of the Kent variant) and people who got the AZ vaccine will be vulnerable again putting further pressure on the NHS.

he vaccines minister told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show: "I was speaking to (deputy chief medical officer) Jonathan Van-Tam this morning. We see very much probably an annual or booster in the autumn and then an annual (jab), in the way we do with flu vaccinations where you look at what variant of virus is spreading around the world, rapidly produce a variant of vaccine and then begin to vaccinate and protect the nation."

He urged people not to lose confidence in the efficacy of the AstraZeneca jab in the wake of the South African study.

"While it is right and necessary to prepare for the deployment of an updated vaccine, we can take confidence from the current roll out and the protection it will provide all of us against this terrible disease," Mr Zahawi wrote in The Daily Telegraph.

"We need to be aware that even where a vaccine has reduced efficacy in preventing infection there may still be good efficacy against severe disease, hospitalisation, and death. This is vitally important for protecting the healthcare system "

I am going to repeat this because it is worth discussing.

The only way to stop the SA variant, and all the following new ones that will definitely emerge is to properly close the borders immediately. Continue with the lockdown so we drive the infection down. It is obvious that is the only way. The hope that with one vaccine this will solve all of our problems and we can carry on before is over. No one vaccine will ever be enough for emerging variants. They will all have to be updated almost constantly.

My parents had the AZ jabs yesterday too. In three weeks they will have some protection against all strains, once they have the second dose they will be much better protected, and even if they catch covid they are unlikely now to be seriously ill or hospitalised, so that is good enough for now. So in answer to pp about talking to parents, I think it is important to point out they are now much safer.

@ilikegrapes21

If the booster is available by autumn, I assume that means we can't unlock anything before next year given it will take some time to administer? Easing over the spring/summer means the SA variant will become dominant (assuming the vaccines block a decent % of transmission of the Kent variant) and people who got the AZ vaccine will be vulnerable again putting further pressure on the NHS.

Surely that depends. If it prevents severe infection then why would we have to keep restrictions? I thought the whole idea was to protect the NHS, not prevent every illness. The flu jab doesn't protect against every strain or offer anywhere near 100% protection.

We should be able to open up everything as planned, because the death rate should be greatly reduced by the numbers now vaccinated.

So the vaccine may not completely stop covid, but it will turn it into a manageable illness now. At least that is what the evidence suggests.

Stop worrying

"If you can keep your head when all around you have lost theirs, then you probably haven't understood the seriousness of the situation."

The government lied again that vaccination was a one-step way out.

Vaccination is vital and will work - but we must also suppress cases to avoid vaccine escape.