Rishi Sunak - Moving Goalposts for Lockdown

[LucilleTheVampireBat]

So it is in the news that Rishi Sunak has said he is concerned that government scientific advisers are moving the goalposts in a bid to extend the lockdown.

He is said to have stated that the justification is being shifted from the original and boakworthy "Protect the NHS" narrative, and is now not focusing on hospitalisations, but rather on the number of cases.

This was my concern all along. That they would try to change the narrative in order to justify extending this hideous lockdown even longer.

This quote is from the Telegraph article: "He (Rishi) has told allies that Britain is approaching a "fat lady sings moment" when lockdown must be lifted, never to return". I truly hope that this is the case!

He is 100% right they do keep moving the goalposts. Once the top 4 groups are vaccinated there is no need to have such harsh restrictions. The NHS pressure will have eased by then and we do not exist simply to save the NHS at all costs. We now need to start driving towards saving the 1000s of businesses that are on their knees. We will not achieve 0 covid and nor do we need to. The majority of people will not put up with this after March we have to start getting back to normal.

Chris Whitty is a one dimensional thinker who collects a hefty pay package at the end of every month he has no concept of the struggles people are having in lockdown. Boris needs to start realising that we have done enough for the NHS and shift his focus to restarting the economy.

He's obviously concerned about the economic effects as that's what he'll be judged on. With furlough ending he will be bracing himself for when people inevitably blame him for tax rises.

I think that waiting for the immunity to kick in for the first 4 groups is a reasonable strategy that should pay off based on data from Israel and I think that people are looking forward to the roadmap.

The rumoured roadmap of schools in March, non-essential shops in April and pubs in May sounds reasonable and fits in with the furlough end date.

@Shamelessnamechange9 I find your stance hard to comprehend tbh. Do you really not take into consideration that new information has to be factored into decision making? I mean generally in any area of life?

Covid-19 is a new virus and the vaccines are new. There are no certainty’s in the managing of this disaster, only predictions, and the strategies will change as dictated by the virus and nothing else. This really shouldn’t need spelling out at this stage.

Chris Whitty is a one dimensional thinker who collects a hefty pay package at the end of every month he has no concept of the struggles people are having in lockdown.

Chris Whitty is very smart and very far from a one-dimensional thinker. He's still putting in shifts in hospitals to treat Covid patients.

He's very aware of the wider consequences of lockdown.

I'm very sorry that the misunderstandings about the breadth of his knowledge and experience have led people to think it's acceptable to speak to him disrespectfully as in this clip and I admire him for the way he handled it:

www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/video-of-sir-chris-whitty-being-harassed-and-called-a-liar-on-the-street-surfaces/03/02/

@Xenia

He is right. The Government needs to stand firm on this. We cannot go on for much longer with so many rights and freedoms removed.

100% agree.

I think Sunak has his eye on the top job and is seen as a credible successor to Johnson - especially as he is articulate and hawkish than his competitors like Gove and Hancock who thinks that there should be more restrictions like tighter control of the borders.

Scientists give their opinion but in the end the politicians decide.

We did not vote for a group of scientists to govern us...

Remember though that Sunak wants to be the next Conservative leader. So he also has a political interest in buttering-up restive Tory MPs with a show of strength. Good for him.

Chris Whitty is a one dimensional thinker who collects a hefty pay package at the end of every month he has no concept of the struggles people are having in lockdown. Woah! That is going to need some explanation, given what the man does for a living - his real, everyday work, not his SAGE work.

He is Chief Medical Officer for England Chief Medical Advisor to the UK, Head of NIHR and lectures as the Gresham Professor of Physic PLUS work wards, is a consulting physician for UCLH and the Hospital for Tropical Diseases.

If you call that being 'one dimensional thinker' then you had better be a cross between an astrophysicist and Nigella Lawson!

As for the struggles people are having you may not have been listening to him, Public Health is very much about the every day struggles of real people!

Then again, a quiet man with a posh voice is an easy target for the venom of some!

Chris Whitty is a one dimensional thinker who collects a hefty pay package at the end of every month he has no concept of the struggles people are having in lockdown.

Whitty is paid to look at the medical science only. His opinion on economics or social issues is not part of his job. Sunak is paid to look at the country's finances. His medical opinion is not part of the job.
Johnson's job is to take advice from the different experts and decide which bits to follow and which bits to ignore.

Chris Whitty is very aware of his remit. He states as such.

And agree with pp with more detailed posts.

I think they keep moving the goalposts for a reason.

Like it’s a rapidly evolving/ changing situation.

I think if kids are prevented from mixing much longer they'll end up being hospitalised with a cold at this rate. They'll miss building their natural immunity to other viruses

The rumoured roadmap of schools in March, non-essential shops in April and pubs in May sounds reasonable and fits in with the furlough end date

I'd imagine this is the plan, but some scientists have the bit between their teeth and want zero cases.

@marshmallowfluffy

Chris Whitty is a one dimensional thinker who collects a hefty pay package at the end of every month he has no concept of the struggles people are having in lockdown.

Whitty is paid to look at the medical science only. His opinion on economics or social issues is not part of his job. Sunak is paid to look at the country's finances. His medical opinion is not part of the job.
Johnson's job is to take advice from the different experts and decide which bits to follow and which bits to ignore.

Well said @marshmallowfluffy. In truth extreme bias towards the economy or healthcare isn’t going to win. It needs to be a balance.

see fig 5 here from the ONS: ^www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19weeklyinsights/latesthealthindicatorsinengland29january2021#infections-hospital-admissions-and-deaths^

That only shows the hospital admission rates per 100,000 population, not the proportions/breakdown of actual admissions. Not sure of the exact UK figures, but for example, in the US half of the people admitted to hospital are under 65.

Also obviously it depends on infection rates in those age groups, if a larger proportion of younger people are being infected then numbers will increase. While people in their 50s and 60s are less likely to be admitted to hospital overall, they are more likely to be admitted to icu (in England, approx half the patients in icu are under 60) which requires higher levels of staff and resources.

@the80sweregreat

His concerned about the economy and when the furlough scheme ends. It makes sense but you always have to do a balancing act between this and the public's health , which isn't easy. I bet he was under the impression that things would be a bit more ' normal ' by now too. He was happy to splash the cash last March.

It appears ( from the mail reporting , anyway) that his always been at odds with the PM and Sage regarding the economy but the PM is a bit more cautious about things.
Tough call for them all. The debts the country are mounting up are eye watering.

*He's

Sorry about the spelling!

I'd imagine this is the plan, but some scientists have the bit between their teeth and want zero cases.

I agree that zero Covid isn't going to happen unless by luck mutations happen that make it weaker and less transmissable. I think Covid could never be zero in the UK anyway as we can't close the borders due to our dependence on imports of food and medicine.

I've not really kept an eye on the different areas of scientific thought- my main science source is the government scientists and I have the impression that they see Covid as something that we will return every winter like flu. Perhaps people will get a combined Covid and flu shot every autumn?

@Frodont

I think if kids are prevented from mixing much longer they'll end up being hospitalised with a cold at this rate. They'll miss building their natural immunity to other viruses

This is my worry. I have a 3 month old who hasnt been held by anyone except me and DH. I cant imagine what will happen when I have to put her in nursery to go back to work.

[quote Cornettoninja]@Shamelessnamechange9 I find your stance hard to comprehend tbh. Do you really not take into consideration that new information has to be factored into decision making? I mean generally in any area of life?

Covid-19 is a new virus and the vaccines are new. There are no certainty’s in the managing of this disaster, only predictions, and the strategies will change as dictated by the virus and nothing else. This really shouldn’t need spelling out at this stage.[/quote]
Then Boris shouldn't have said it then should he? From the start, he persistently said the vaccine was our way out and back to normality.

Now we have it, the vulnerable are being vaccinated, hospital admissions will be declining in the next couple of months, so why change the narrative now?

Purpose of the vaccines was never to eradicate cases all together, its impossible. It's to stop hospital admissions and overwhelming the NHS. Once hospital admissions go down so should the restrictions.

From YouGov:

71% think the lockdown should be continued until cases have been significantly reduced. Even if this means Lockdown is in place for longer than planned.

Thankfully you Gov polls don’t vote in parliament.

The whole way through people have cited polls being pro lockdown, esp if they personally are very keen. Which is often the case on here with a few anyway.

Fortunately MPs vote based on the reality of the damage

@herecomesthsun but we’re not trying to stop anyone from ever getting ill and dying from this. There are vulnerable groups every year to all sorts of diseases. We don’t shut down the entire country. We had to do it this year to stop hospitals being overwhelmed. The first 4 groups being vaccinated should reduce deaths by 90%.