Rishi Sunak - Moving Goalposts for Lockdown

[LucilleTheVampireBat]

So it is in the news that Rishi Sunak has said he is concerned that government scientific advisers are moving the goalposts in a bid to extend the lockdown.

He is said to have stated that the justification is being shifted from the original and boakworthy "Protect the NHS" narrative, and is now not focusing on hospitalisations, but rather on the number of cases.

This was my concern all along. That they would try to change the narrative in order to justify extending this hideous lockdown even longer.

This quote is from the Telegraph article: "He (Rishi) has told allies that Britain is approaching a "fat lady sings moment" when lockdown must be lifted, never to return". I truly hope that this is the case!

@StrangerHereMyself

As itsasecret said, the intensive care units are not full of eighty five year olds. They’re full (on average) of sixty-somethings who haven’t been vaccinated yet.

Sunak has consistently been overly gung ho about lifting restrictions and IMO his influence has ended up with us being in a worse economic position that we would have been if he’d simply rolled over and done whatever Sage suggested to suppress the virus.

On the upside, his influence and that of the large number of Tory backbenchers he speaks for means that the people who moan that the government is in thrall to a bunch of zero-risk zealots and we’ll be in lockdown for ever are very obviously wrong. The very instant that there’s public and scientific critical mass behind the idea that it’s time to loosen up then that’s what we’ll be doing: it’s inherent in the makeup of this government.

This! 💯

I agree with Sunak

@ReviewingTheSituation

I don't see how Eat out to Help Out caused the November lockdown, as suggested here. EOTHO was in August. Cases didn't start rising again until after students and schools all started mixing in September.

Cases zoomed up in December until after Christmas - if EOTHO had caused big problems, we'd have seen it from mid August onwards. Yes, it encouraged people out of the house, but into (mainly) controlled environments where proprietors were doing everything they could to limit spread. The complete opposite from uncontrolled mixing at Christmas - both family gatherings and heaving shops whilst people were doing Xmas shopping.

Yes!! It always baffles me that people say eat out to help out caused a rise in cases when cases were low during the scheme, and remained for a good period after it had finished.

Winter was the main cause - it’s a seasonal virus. Schools probably didn’t help matters, but my dc’s schools were largely unaffected, so I didn’t see this personally.

Is there evidence that EO2HO raised case counts anywhere? I don't believe so.

I think it was probably more the movement of students rather than schools. The numbers of cases in the 18-24 age group was phenomenal back in the Autumn, and they were always going to work their way into the community in time for infection levels to be high as winter started.

Schools around here were largely unaffected too, but it's the biggest community melting pot there is, so it's easy to see how they can contribute to spread.

There was definitely evidence last year. I just don’t know where it is now. I’m going to look.

I wish we WOULD persuade Zero Covid. Which societies are functioning best atm?

Eat out to help out figures

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-eat-out-to-help-out-accelerated-second-wave-of-covid-19-study-says-12118285

Ah yes, students. I live just outside a uni town and out numbers went up significantly when the students returned. A friend of mine rents to students and she said that virtually all of them had it.

@FizzyPepsi
was it not clear that I was saying vulnerable u18s? They are more at risk from covid than the flu. Let's not try to sweep it under the rug pls.

@Itisasecret
The issue is that GPs are not any more knowledgeable than us potentially. Especially not in conditions that are rare(ish).
In our case the scenario is: I have crohn's. It's proven that it is partially genetic predisposition and partially outside factors triggering it*. Also proven that boys are much more likely to inherit this gene, especially if mum has it, not dad. And if it's triggered they tend to be hospitalized with it more.
So let me ask you this: what would you do/think:

1. nothing to see here, let him go to school, whatever
2. let's protect him as much as possible when he already has about 75% chance of developing a life long condition (can vary from mild/almost normal living to needing a feeding tube and stoma bag at all times)?

The GP admitted that apart from hearing about crohn's she has never had a patient with this condition, has no idea and I should consult some specialist. But referrals are halted until april, so just wait.
She also confirmed that I am in the lowest group as they didn't add this autoimmune condition to the cv list.

And this brings us back to the starting point: community transmissions need to be low enough + there need to be proper mitigation measures (rota/masks/....) so that these kids can go to school as well.

And there are many more in this position I am sure.

I wish we WOULD persuade Zero Covid. Which societies are functioning best atm?

That makes about as much sense as a Zero Flu strategy.

Does Rishi want a sustainable lifting of restrictions or does he want to ensure more hardship financially and socially?

He’s a div. we’re almost at the point we reopened in December in terms of case numbers and look at how that’s turned out. It was clearly still too high to control.

You’d hope someone in charge of the economy had a good enough understanding of maths that they comprehended exponential growth.

The weather will be our saviour once again

I think we have almost achieved zero flu according to the news yesterday.

Which economies and their children are functioning better?

Oh... wait... U.K. of course, with its lax careless approach. Scotland was practically zero Covid last summer and Britain was near. But let’s just open up..... and look where we are now.

Imagine where we’d be if they just stuck it out a bit longer and infections were almost non existent🤷🏼‍♀️

[quote FizzyPepsi]@herecomesthsun

The evidence shows that the Oxford vaccine stops 100% of deaths and 100% of hospitalisations 21 days after one dose.

Vaccinating the most vulnerable will therefore ensure that hospitals are no longer overwhelmed- which is the purpose of lockdown.

We are not trying to stop anyone every getting ill- that would be ludicrous.[/quote]
That's why the PRINCIPLE trial (like RECOVERY but in the community rather than hospitals like the RECOVERY trial) is investigating a suite of treatments in the community to prevent deterioration or the need for hospitalisation.

There's an Oxford PRINCIPLE trial that's about the expand the range of treatments available for treating mild COVID–19 in the community (age 65 and older or 50 and older if there's a pre-existing condition) and reduce the need for hospitalisation (or the 'ripening' into a severe case). Patients can self-enrol for that now without needing their GP practice to have registered.

www.principletrial.org/

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-23/trial-for-wonder-drug-that-may-reduce-covid-deaths-times-says

There's increased activity into rapid reviews of therapeutics for preventing or treating COVID–19 infection both within NICE and NIHR.

However, there will still be quite a lot of vulnerable unvaccinated people in the community by, say, the middle of June and we have new more infectious variants. Also, the vaccines aren't 100% effective and we have limited data on how they will affect the very elderly and different groups of very vulnerable people. There are also some people who for various reasons won't be getting the vaccine. Not to mention all the people awaiting their second doses of vaccine.

So are you saying we lock down until June or beyond because some people won't be vaccinated? We have to have started opening up by then. There's no way I won't see my family come summer!

@FatPatty

I’m not sure he’s the best person to listen to. Eat Out To Help Out wasn’t exactly the best idea in the middle of a pandemic. If we open up fast before the vaccines are working properly we’ll be back where we started and also risk new variants. I liked Rishi Sunak at the start of this but I now see he was a disaster capitalist during the 2008 financial crisis. His ideology is aligned for the super rich not the masses.

EOTHO was a stupid mistake. He must have been under pressure from the hospitality industry to do it, but it made no sense. Pubs & restaurants were busy anyway after months of lockdown. There really was no need to spunk even more taxpayer money on a flawed scheme which helped lead to increased infections again, thus contributing towards the latest lockdowns.

He's also responsible for excluding 3 million self employed from the Covid support schemes. That's inexcusable.

Not to mention the enormous fraud involved with the furlough scheme, bounce back loans etc.

His string of mistakes are coming home to roost now that Covid restrictions/lockdowns have gone on so long.

The goal posts haven’t been changed by scientist, honestly 🤦🏻‍♀️

As for the shift from protect the NHS to numbers - well they’re actually intrinsically linked if you engage your brain and think about it.

Rishi thinks with his wallet. Which is one-dimensional and flawed. It’s not the way to run an economy.

Behavioral scientists have probably advised the Government on how long we will all tolerate this for and the figures for the vaccines are encouraging and are often quoted on the news.
I'm sure they are aware that people won't be prepared to let this drag on for many more months. They will have to do something.
Once schools go back early March ( hopefully ) then things really will start to look up I'm sure. I just hope that retail and other establishments can start to reopen by early April at least. Let's hope not too many will be shut for good :(
We can't hide away forever. I know it's not easy. Without an economy of sorts the NHS will fail anyway. Which is a sobering thought.

@ReviewingTheSituation

I don't see how Eat out to Help Out caused the November lockdown, as suggested here. EOTHO was in August. Cases didn't start rising again until after students and schools all started mixing in September.

Cases zoomed up in December until after Christmas - if EOTHO had caused big problems, we'd have seen it from mid August onwards. Yes, it encouraged people out of the house, but into (mainly) controlled environments where proprietors were doing everything they could to limit spread. The complete opposite from uncontrolled mixing at Christmas - both family gatherings and heaving shops whilst people were doing Xmas shopping.

Cases started to rise during August as per the official statistics.

EOTHO did cause a rise in cases according to a study here, which funnily enough Rishi tried to deny

@littlepeas

Ah yes, students. I live just outside a uni town and out numbers went up significantly when the students returned. A friend of mine rents to students and she said that virtually all of them had it.

If the Govt had any sense it would have said clearly that Unis would be online only (except for medical/lab courses etc), which would have massively reduced the numbers of students moving around the country spreading covid from area to area. Instead, Unis were told to open as normal and students were lied to, being told that it would be as close to normal as possible.

There was also widespread ridicule last Summer when a few people suggested that new students be allocated accommodation according to their courses, i.e. group Maths students into "bubbles" where they live together AND study together, thus avoiding unnecessary mixing of students. In hindsight, that could well have helped enormously to stop the spread and facilitate more face to face teaching.

As it is, the Unis had flat/corridors with up to 14/16/18 students, all sharing a kitchen (and bathrooms in some cases), coming from all corners of the country (and other countries) and all doing different courses. Hardly a surprise when one student brings it from their home and it spreads throughout the corridor/flat, and to all the other people they came into contact with (i.e. in shops, uni library etc).

Covid is all about breaking "chains of infections". How on Earth was it allowed for students to be encouraged to return/start university last September (when cases were clearly rising), and then to mix them all up in corridors/flats. It's crazy in the extreme.

He is said to have stated that the justification is being shifted from the original and boakworthy "Protect the NHS" narrative, and is now not focusing on hospitalisations, but rather on the number of cases.

But to me this is a different way of saying the same thing - from data about the number of cases, which is being studied on a continuous basis, they will be able to extrapolate what age groups the cases are in and what percentage will need hospitalisation.

And with regard to the Tory backbenchers who are shouting about, for example, children returning to school - do you seriously think they give two shits about the health and welfare of your children?

Genuinely interested why you think the government would want to extend lockdown longer than necessary? Personally can’t think of any good reason bar mad conspiracy theories.

@Iggly

The goal posts haven’t been changed by scientist, honestly 🤦🏻‍♀️

As for the shift from protect the NHS to numbers - well they’re actually intrinsically linked if you engage your brain and think about it.

Rishi thinks with his wallet. Which is one-dimensional and flawed. It’s not the way to run an economy.

He's not even good thinking with his wallet. His scattergun approach to covid support/grants is a disgrace. 3 million self employed excluded from support. Widespread fraud with the furlough and bounce back loans. Some businesses eligible for grants they didn't actually need (such as the business rates grant that supermarkets were eligible for despite covid making them far busier than normal!). Billions of pounds have been lost/wasted due to fraud and mistakes, and at the same time, 3 million self employed have been excluded, and low paid people can't isolate because they're not eligible. It's all a monumentally expensive foul up. If Rishi thinks he's a PM in waiting, he's deluded.

But we have a sort of functioning economy. Some areas have seen huge growth.

Gaming
Leisurewear
Indoor exercise equipment
Office equipment for indoor offices
Extensions for indoor offices
Any online retailer
Food
Takeaways
Alcohol
Gardening
Walking wear
Dogs😁
DIY

The things that have died would have died anyway. The High Street is finished whether you enjoyed shopping there or not.

It’s not bringing on what it did at the moment, but it will just adapt accordingly.