Rishi Sunak - Moving Goalposts for Lockdown

[LucilleTheVampireBat]

So it is in the news that Rishi Sunak has said he is concerned that government scientific advisers are moving the goalposts in a bid to extend the lockdown.

He is said to have stated that the justification is being shifted from the original and boakworthy "Protect the NHS" narrative, and is now not focusing on hospitalisations, but rather on the number of cases.

This was my concern all along. That they would try to change the narrative in order to justify extending this hideous lockdown even longer.

This quote is from the Telegraph article: "He (Rishi) has told allies that Britain is approaching a "fat lady sings moment" when lockdown must be lifted, never to return". I truly hope that this is the case!

@Bing12

The purpose of lockdown was never really to stop people dying though. It was designed to prevent NHS capacity being overwhelmed.

Why are people who die with COVID (average age 82 remember) more worth shutting down society to save than the hundreds of thousands of others who die each year?

Or the hundreds of thousands who will be killed over the longer term by the poverty, loss of education, undiagnosed other illnesses and mental health issues caused by lockdown for that matter?

I don’t think it’s possible either. I’ve no interest in wasting even more years of my life trying to pursue the impossible thanks very much.

The death rate in my area is now lower than the normal average for this time of year.

*@reviewingthesituation
*
Totally agree

Er, surely mutations prove that zero Covid is impossible?

Zero Covid was impossible from the outset! This virus was probably in Europe before Wuhan even shut down properly.

I'm in furlough and dh in a comfortable safe job but I can still worry and feel that the lockdowns need to end for the sake of the economy. A very close friend is near to loosing her home because of the damage to the hospitality industry.

Zero cases is not a path I want to follow

I'm also curious about the EOTHO theory, because if it hadn't been a thing, wouldn't loads more people have met up in households? And really, it seems likely that a lot of "minglin" in private homes, where you linger longer, don't socially distance and don't have all the precautions that restaurants, pubs and cafes have to have by law, could have caused a much larger spike. We'll never know, of course.

@Jourdain11

Er, surely mutations prove that zero Covid is impossible?

Zero Covid was impossible from the outset! This virus was probably in Europe before Wuhan even shut down properly.

And yet if you turn the "deaths in the last 7 days" tables upside down from where we're near the top with the biggest numbers, at the other end there are a lot of zeros.

There are countries living normal lives, not going in and out of lockdown all the time.

Even the Isle of Man!

Most countries have had fewer deaths over the whole pandemic than we had last month.

And a lot have had fewer deaths over the whole pandemic than we had yesterday.

There's a firm correlation between failing to control the virus and a trashed economy, vests a zero covid approach and limited economic damage.

Certain people have told us the covid is "over" many times.

For some countries it's true.

The U.K. could have another year of it if we're idiots.

Or worse.

Which countries are living normal lives?

@Jourdain11

Which countries are living normal lives?

The ones that don't need Lockdowns because they didn't let covid spread for months. Twice. Like the U.K. did.

Or that had a lockdown long enough then implemented a zero covid policy.

You can tell them by their numbers. Both covid and economic.

And by the fact that so many more of their citizens are still alive.

Outside of Europe isle mann the exception
So is oz and Australia
Asian countries.

Within Europe think they all in and out of lockdown or restrictions too.
So France , Germany, Netherlands/ Belgium, Italy, Greece, Portugal, Sweden far from normal.

Brazil and America ignoring restriction and look how its working out for them.
I am struck how we the worst.
Guess it's large aging population/ poor border control and more co morbidity ie being overweight.
Plus we have big class sizes
Big population high density living and some international living.
Many of our industries and education wasent prepared to be online its like a new concept.

Wish people would stop going on about autralia and new zealand - they are export countries who pretty much live insular within the country

Our import - given our tiny size - is 4 x bigger than australia. We rely on food etc from europe. We cant just shut our borders to trade! Australia and NZ population is less than half us and we live in a more densly populated area. We also don't have the weather on our side. Even in winter there , its mild by comparison.

Their population simply isn't linked to other countries like ours.

Its common sense - no idea why people dont understand this

The isle of man has been on full lockdown for most of the year. It only has food coming in but my god its tiny - we look after it! Who's going to be bringing food to us? Many jobs are linked to europe. So are you saying all those thousands should be unemployed? Because id be way more scared of losing my job than i ever would be of covid.

zero cases is not the policy- even whitty said we ave to accept a level of annual deaths

it must end - there's been 5 suicides on merseyrail just last month. I've never heard of anything like it.

@Frodont

The death rate in my area is now lower than the normal average for this time of year.

It will be interesting to see the rates over a couple of years and see if there is a actual big increase, unfortunately that's going to be skewed by people who have missed other appointments.

Because someone who isn't reliant on the private sector for their money is less likely to appreciate the economic harm caused by endless lockdown

@Frodont what on earth do you base that on? Because to me it sounds like you’ve decided your opinion is fact.

Public services are funded by commercial industry, obviously, why do you think public sector workers wouldn’t comprehend that? The economy needs stability to recover which at the moment looks like it can only be achieved by suppressing infections.

I don’t think you have a particularly balanced view on this at all. The economy and health pressures need to be considered. If we’re going to see good economic recovery we need to avoid situations like January where we’re forced into lockdowns.

@Pastanred
No one has suggested closing the borders to trade. That is ridiculous. Do you not think it would help to close the borders to all travellers coming from overseas for a period and they are forced to quarantine? Bringing in trade is a massive red herring. Boris did the same at PMQs on Weds. It's not Labour's policy or anyone else's who has promoted hotel quarantine for all travellers coming in.

Public services are funded by commercial industry, obviously, why do you think public sector workers wouldn’t comprehend that?

And commercial industry needs an effective public sector if it wants to operate in a stable economy.

Public and private sector have a symbiotic relationship. One is not inherently better than the other.

Public sector may comprehend they are linked. Although not always going by here.

But private will be feeling a greater sense of urgency as business declines. It’s not the same

The private sector does not appreciate that it gets a great deal from the public sector.
Honestly

@Pastanred

Wish people would stop going on about autralia and new zealand - they are export countries who pretty much live insular within the country

Our import - given our tiny size - is 4 x bigger than australia. We rely on food etc from europe. We cant just shut our borders to trade! Australia and NZ population is less than half us and we live in a more densly populated area. We also don't have the weather on our side. Even in winter there , its mild by comparison.

Their population simply isn't linked to other countries like ours.

Its common sense - no idea why people dont understand this

www.visitbritain.org/latest-monthly-data-1

It's a myth to say visit numbers aren't down, they are.
We're the largest travel hub on the planet.

The argument for closing the borders and the economy is based upon false equivalences. And a as consequence all other debates based upon these premises are null and void.
Britain's economy and travel arrangements dwarf all the presented examples. Daft.

@MarshaBradyo

Public sector may comprehend they are linked. Although not always going by here.

But private will be feeling a greater sense of urgency as business declines. It’s not the same

Fair point, but I would argue that the private sector doesn’t have the same perspective of the complete picture. Public sector workers have likely seen for themselves the impact on our infrastructure and exactly how close it has come to breaking in multiple areas due to ill health.

I forgot to add; there is no reason to think the same conditions wouldn’t affect private industry in the same way without restrictions although they’d be in a worse position financially for recovery than public services.

As I have said, I am no fan of the Government and I think they have made many errors of judgement but the extraordinary amount of airtime given to the SAGE members (and it is always the same usual suspects who do the media rounds - Semple/Michie in particular - looking at you) is substantially skewing the debate on this.

If we had more ministers who studied science at university then we'd hear less from SAGE , IndySAGE etc. Thatcher studied Chemistry but I believe that many ministers did English, classics etc so can't discuss the science well enough for tv.

@marshmallowfluffy

As I have said, I am no fan of the Government and I think they have made many errors of judgement but the extraordinary amount of airtime given to the SAGE members (and it is always the same usual suspects who do the media rounds - Semple/Michie in particular - looking at you) is substantially skewing the debate on this.

If we had more ministers who studied science at university then we'd hear less from SAGE , IndySAGE etc. Thatcher studied Chemistry but I believe that many ministers did English, classics etc so can't discuss the science well enough for tv.

It's also a shame that we never have Chancellors with any experience of accountancy or tax. It would certainly help avoid the constant mistakes of a succession of Chancellors if they'd had a bit of experience of the realities and behavioural aspects of business and tax.