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Rishi Sunak - Moving Goalposts for Lockdown

237 replies

LucilleTheVampireBat · 04/02/2021 11:05

So it is in the news that Rishi Sunak has said he is concerned that government scientific advisers are moving the goalposts in a bid to extend the lockdown.

He is said to have stated that the justification is being shifted from the original and boakworthy "Protect the NHS" narrative, and is now not focusing on hospitalisations, but rather on the number of cases.

This was my concern all along. That they would try to change the narrative in order to justify extending this hideous lockdown even longer.

This quote is from the Telegraph article: "He (Rishi) has told allies that Britain is approaching a "fat lady sings moment" when lockdown must be lifted, never to return". I truly hope that this is the case!

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ArseInTheCoOpWindow · 04/02/2021 13:45

Zoom and Teams must be coining it in.

MrsMercedes · 04/02/2021 13:49

You missed Netflix!!

the80sweregreat · 04/02/2021 13:50

Like all disasters that happen in life, there are a few walking around who have gained a lot of money with dodgy deals and putting people on furlough who didn't need to be or some other scam or two I'm sure. The government were pretty much bullied into the schemes and they had to come up with something very quickly.
Of course, there are also lots of losers and that is also sad too.
I've heard stories of people gaining thousands from this. What the circumstances were I've no idea , but there has been a divide between those left to get into heaps of debts and those who appear to be ok and not suffered too much. It was never going to be perfect.

user1497207191 · 04/02/2021 14:04

@the80sweregreat

Like all disasters that happen in life, there are a few walking around who have gained a lot of money with dodgy deals and putting people on furlough who didn't need to be or some other scam or two I'm sure. The government were pretty much bullied into the schemes and they had to come up with something very quickly. Of course, there are also lots of losers and that is also sad too. I've heard stories of people gaining thousands from this. What the circumstances were I've no idea , but there has been a divide between those left to get into heaps of debts and those who appear to be ok and not suffered too much. It was never going to be perfect.
Trouble is that it's nearly a year since the start. Yes, they had to do things quickly at first - fair enough. But Rishi and the Treasury havn't addressed the problems in the later 11 months. They had ample time to look into the unfairness of the 3 million excluded self employed, and to "tweak" the rules so that specific groups of excluded could be included, i.e. those who started a business in 2018/9, or who fell foul of the 50:50 rule in 18/19 but didn't have a second income in 19/20. It's a travesty that they've not addressed the fundamental flaws. They can't use the "no time" excuse 11 months on can they?
MarshaBradyo · 04/02/2021 14:06

There are opposing forces each equally strong

He’s right to be the strong voice in economic corner

It’s not just scientists controlling this and tbf to them even they acknowledge this, usually

carrythecan · 04/02/2021 14:07

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

But we have a sort of functioning economy. Some areas have seen huge growth.

Gaming
Leisurewear
Indoor exercise equipment
Office equipment for indoor offices
Extensions for indoor offices
Any online retailer
Food
Takeaways
Alcohol
Gardening
Walking wear
Dogs😁
DIY

The things that have died would have died anyway. The High Street is finished whether you enjoyed shopping there or not.

It’s not bringing on what it did at the moment, but it will just adapt accordingly.

That's not actually true. I know for a fact that alcohol sales have not increased in the last year, never mind a huge increase.

There has been a huge increase in how much alcohol has been sold by the supermarkets, but a massive decrease in the amount of alcohol sold in pubs etc. Overall the sale of alcohol for the last year has remained relatively the same as usual.

MarshaBradyo · 04/02/2021 14:07

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

But we have a sort of functioning economy. Some areas have seen huge growth.

Gaming
Leisurewear
Indoor exercise equipment
Office equipment for indoor offices
Extensions for indoor offices
Any online retailer
Food
Takeaways
Alcohol
Gardening
Walking wear
Dogs😁
DIY

The things that have died would have died anyway. The High Street is finished whether you enjoyed shopping there or not.

It’s not bringing on what it did at the moment, but it will just adapt accordingly.

No it’s not. The high st will return.

Even in tier 2 in my local area it was booming last time.

Zone 2 London busier than ever

MarshaBradyo · 04/02/2021 14:09

Maybe the economics of society and how taxes are raised should also be compulsory then.

God yes. So many so slow on the uptake.

LastTrainEast · 04/02/2021 14:12

@LucilleTheVampireBat

So it is in the news that Rishi Sunak has said he is concerned that government scientific advisers are moving the goalposts in a bid to extend the lockdown.

He is said to have stated that the justification is being shifted from the original and boakworthy "Protect the NHS" narrative, and is now not focusing on hospitalisations, but rather on the number of cases.

This was my concern all along. That they would try to change the narrative in order to justify extending this hideous lockdown even longer.

This quote is from the Telegraph article: "He (Rishi) has told allies that Britain is approaching a "fat lady sings moment" when lockdown must be lifted, never to return". I truly hope that this is the case!

You believed from the start that this was all about the government wanting lock-downs for their own purposes?

Did it come to you in a dream?

"the original and boakworthy "Protect the NHS" narrative" Ah you thought it was about it being 'kind to the nice doctors and nurses'? I can see why that would be sickening, but you could have asked someone to explain it.

AlecTrevelyan006 · 04/02/2021 14:14

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55900624

Alcohol deaths reached record high in 2020

ArseInTheCoOpWindow · 04/02/2021 14:17

‘The high st will return.’

I know practically no one who shows on the high street anymore. And I’m 57! So what is exactly going to replace dreary Debenhams or Dorothy Perkins? More of the same?

Some shops are rammed, those in retail parks l believe. But town centre shops aren’t. The only way the high street can stay is by attracting quirky independents. And that is the way forward. So every town centre is different. Not just M and S, Schu, TK Maxx etc.

And yeah, alcohol sales was just a guesstimate. But face masks and hand sanitizers are a whole new area. S maybe offset by those?

ArseInTheCoOpWindow · 04/02/2021 14:18

The only shop in my town centre that was rammed was Primark. And that will continue to be rammed!

MarshaBradyo · 04/02/2021 14:18

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

‘The high st will return.’

I know practically no one who shows on the high street anymore. And I’m 57! So what is exactly going to replace dreary Debenhams or Dorothy Perkins? More of the same?

Some shops are rammed, those in retail parks l believe. But town centre shops aren’t. The only way the high street can stay is by attracting quirky independents. And that is the way forward. So every town centre is different. Not just M and S, Schu, TK Maxx etc.

And yeah, alcohol sales was just a guesstimate. But face masks and hand sanitizers are a whole new area. S maybe offset by those?

Ours is a really nice street, mostly cafes and restaurants and small independent shops.

True it is a far cry from some. But everyone wfh spent their money there and the queues were and are still long.

carrythecan · 04/02/2021 14:19

@AlecTrevelyan006

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55900624

Alcohol deaths reached record high in 2020

Which just goes to show the importance of regulated drinking and regulated drinking venues. It is well known that people drink in a much more moderated way when they socialise. People drinking at home by themselves tend to drink to excess as they pour larger measures. They also do not move around so much which means they are not processing the alcohol in the same way they do if they have to go to the bar or walk home from the pub for example.
MaxNormal · 04/02/2021 14:22

U.K. of course, with its lax careless approach.

The UK has had one of the longest, strictest lockdowns in the world. And compliance has generally been high, as well. I don't know why people think it's so lax, and where is supposedly so much stricter.

And please don't say Australia and New Zealand, for one totally different scenario and secondly I don't say how they are going to transition to opening their borders again, even with vaccines, without accepting a rise in cases.

Iggly · 04/02/2021 14:25

He's not even good thinking with his wallet. His scattergun approach to covid support/grants is a disgrace. 3 million self employed excluded from support. Widespread fraud with the furlough and bounce back loans. Some businesses eligible for grants they didn't actually need (such as the business rates grant that supermarkets were eligible for despite covid making them far busier than normal!). Billions of pounds have been lost/wasted due to fraud and mistakes, and at the same time, 3 million self employed have been excluded, and low paid people can't isolate because they're not eligible. It's all a monumentally expensive foul up. If Rishi thinks he's a PM in waiting, he's deluded

I agree!
You can see that the experience and background of this cabinet is so so narrow, that their policies are fundamentally flawed as a result.

FudgeSundae · 04/02/2021 14:29

@StrangerHereMyself

As itsasecret said, the intensive care units are not full of eighty five year olds. They’re full (on average) of sixty-somethings who haven’t been vaccinated yet.

Sunak has consistently been overly gung ho about lifting restrictions and IMO his influence has ended up with us being in a worse economic position that we would have been if he’d simply rolled over and done whatever Sage suggested to suppress the virus.

On the upside, his influence and that of the large number of Tory backbenchers he speaks for means that the people who moan that the government is in thrall to a bunch of zero-risk zealots and we’ll be in lockdown for ever are very obviously wrong. The very instant that there’s public and scientific critical mass behind the idea that it’s time to loosen up then that’s what we’ll be doing: it’s inherent in the makeup of this government.

I hear this a lot but it is complete nonsense - see fig 5 here from the ONS: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19weeklyinsights/latesthealthindicatorsinengland29january2021#infections-hospital-admissions-and-deaths Note this is the LATEST data, ie even after a lot of the older people have been vaccinated. It’s STILL the case that the over 75s are overwhelmingly most likely to be admitted to hospital. And they have nearly all been vaccinated by now. It’s just not true that hospitals are full of 60-somethings.

It’s true that these groups are rising as a proportion of total hospital admissions... that means the vaccinations are working! But protecting over 75s will prevent, per this data, about 80% of hospitalisations.

ArseInTheCoOpWindow · 04/02/2021 14:32

Cafes and small independent shops is great. That’s why it was busy. But dreary identical chains in every town centre is to going to pull people in now. They need to be exciting and different.

CuriousaboutSamphire · 04/02/2021 14:32

He is right.

As are SAGE

The goalsposts have been changing almost daily, that's how it's supposed to work!

It isn't up to the scientists to decide. They provide information and best advice. The government makes the decisions and, as Chris Witty told us a few times last year, that doesn't always make SAGE happy!

EmmanuelleMakro · 04/02/2021 14:35

@Lostinwinter
I think the trouble is and I say this as a HCP, the Sage experts only think in terms of health & I am not even sure they consider mental health. They are not trained economists.
We said!
The gvt completely lost the plot when they blindly followed people with a one track mind.

orangenasturtium · 04/02/2021 15:11

How are you going to stop virus mutation?

Flu mutates every year and the viruses are tweaked, every scientist I've heard is pretty confident that this will be possible with covid too

You can't stop mutation but you can slow the rate of mutation @Ch3rish. Mutations occur because of replication errors (that tends to be at constant ready for a specific virus) or DNA/RNA from another virus getting mixed in when someone has a concurrent infection. So say the right conditions for a successful mutation occurs in 1 in a million infections. If you have 1 million people infected per month, that is 1 new mutation per month. If you have 1 million infections per day, that is 1 new mutation every day... That is why case numbers are as important as hospitalisations/deaths.

If we don't slow the mutation rate it could overtake the speed that we can tweak the vaccine and the chance of a worse variant evolving is more likely because if people are immune to more benign variants from vaccination but not the severe variant, the more new variant will be selected for.

Flu is different because it is much less transmissible and many people already have natural immunity or are vaccinated. You don't need as many people to be immune to prevent the spread of flu.

We all understand a bit about R numbers now. Flu has an R0 of 1.2. SARS-CoV-2 has an R0 of 3+. You need to reduce the R number to less than 1 to stop an outbreak (by social distancing, hygiene practices, vaccination, natural immunity etc). It's a lot easier to do that if the starting point is 1.2.

It might not be possible to achieve herd immunity with the current vaccines because they do not give total sterilising immunity, you can still get the virus and transmit it. What we can achieve is a situation similar to flu, significantly reducing deaths, severe illness and the number of cases, slowing the rate of mutation so we can produce new vaccines to stay in the same stable position long term. The problem is getting there.

There is a risk, until we get to that point, with having only a small percentage of the population vaccinated and high case numbers that we are "selecting" any new variants that the vaccine doesn't work for. Therefore, we need to slow the mutation rate by reducing case numbers. The only way to do that is by preventing transmission by social distancing until the reduction in transmission from vaccination is greater than that from social distancing and there are very low case numbers.

It's a balancing act. As is balancing the economy with public health but, long term, the effect on the economy will be worse if we miss the opportunity to get to that point now and are back to square one in a few months because there is a new vaccine resistant variant.

LucilleTheVampireBat · 04/02/2021 15:13

You believed from the start that this was all about the government wanting lock-downs for their own purposes?

Did it come to you in a dream?

"the original and boakworthy "Protect the NHS" narrative" Ah you thought it was about it being 'kind to the nice doctors and nurses'? I can see why that would be sickening, but you could have asked someone to explain it

I actually don't know what you mean by any of this, nor what your point is? I can see that you are trying to be cleverly unpleasant and insulting, for reasons known only to you, but I fail to see the point you are trying to make?

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LucilleTheVampireBat · 04/02/2021 15:14

I would also ask you to directly quote where I said the specific words "The government want lock-downs for their own purposes". Otherwise, you are quite literally making things up, which I think is called lieing.

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Shamelessnamechange9 · 04/02/2021 15:17

I was going to add a thread like this. That's my fear.

Goverment said at the beginning of all this how a vaccine was the answer. Once we have a vaccine, normality might start to resume. Protect the NHS.

Now we have vaccines which are rolling out quickly and which most likely the majority from getting seriously ill being admitted to hospital..........then Whitty was saying only last week how it doesnt stop transmission and we need to still stick to rules and restrictions !

Goal posts changing.

Come the end of March, once we hit 14 million and vulnerable are vaccinated, people won't follow this shit show any longer.

Cpl654321 · 04/02/2021 15:17

Lol Rishi is just upset that the hard decisions he has to make might mean people won't like him and his percieved path to becoming PM might hit a few bumps

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