Good News Part 8

[BBCONEANDTWO]

Previous thread here:

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4144814-Good-news-part-7?watched=1&msgid=104169501#104169501

Useful links:

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

www.covidmessenger.com. thanks to LittleOwl for all her hard work!

ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

www.omnicalculator.com/health/vaccine-queue-uk
NB Please don’t take this too seriously- it depends what vaccine delivery speed and uptake you estimate so it’s not written in stone.

@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum it there on my device. I'm on the iPhone app!

Basically the article said flu had pretty much been wiped out this winter.

Not surprised. We are mostly stuck at home, earing masks out and staying two metres apart.

Bet they find nits has been completely eradicated too

*wearing masks

@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum

Is the thread about the Warwick research?

Yes it is.

A photo of Kate Bingham when she is not being awesome making vaccine deals

This is her big snorkeling. Just brilliant

*bog not big

Ok then only had a quick peek at the Warwick research this morning but clocked a couple of things

Firstly it is done on the premise that vaccine offers no transmission. They had to do this because when they started there was no evidence available about transmission.

We now have started to get early evidence that the vaccine should reduce transmission. I think next week or the week after they will share that new research. However the tone has changed to less of a not know to it does to some extent. Obviously experts and politicians are privy to early data.

We have seen a serious drop in hospital transmission by the looks of it as well. Which would indicate the staff getting vaccinated has slowed the spread there.

There was a secondly but read the paper this morning and my mind is blank know. It was as pointed as the previous observation though 🤔

Anyway the Warwick stuff has been produced using worse case scenario. So I wouldn't worry as it has probably been proven wrong before it was even released.

Chip paper stuff 🤦‍♀️

Bet they find nits has been completely eradicated too

They have been in our house for years we'd be going round in circles. Get out the comb and conditioner for days on end, get rid of the buggers only to repeat again and again and again. My DCs have been nit free for months now.

Does anyone know when the US Oxford Vaccine data is likely due? I've seen conflicting opinions.

2 more months of safety data from us studies, then likely approval/roll out expected April

Ahh right thanks!

I read the Warwick modelling paper this morning too and have published my withering critique on the data thread .

Basically, they have no idea. Many of the assumptions that they put into the model look reasonable enough, but there are two big issues. First, they assume that for the people who the vaccine does not work for (none of the vaccines are 100% effective) the vaccine does not work at all - they are just as likely to get seriously ill and die as an unvaccinated person. This seems like a really strange oversight. All of the vaccines that have produced Phase 3 data have shown getting up towards 100% reduction in severe illness - so even the unlucky few who do get ill are much less likely to end up in hospital or die. This model, if I'm understanding it right, does not take this into account at all.
Second, as pointed out by @Firefliess on the data thread, the 'already vaccinated' figures in the model are wrong and significantly under-counted.
Both of these issues will have made the model pretty pessimistic.
I'm not saying I could have done any better - but the fact is that we just don't have the info we need to be making these sorts of predictions yet, and until we do, you might as well use tea leaves.
Anyway, long story short, this study really worried me before I read it, and now it really doesn't.

just posting so I can find you all again. I haven't ventured on to MN for a while but when I do, this is where I come!

@clarexbp

I read the Warwick modelling paper this morning too and have published my withering critique on the data thread .

Basically, they have no idea. Many of the assumptions that they put into the model look reasonable enough, but there are two big issues. First, they assume that for the people who the vaccine does not work for (none of the vaccines are 100% effective) the vaccine does not work at all - they are just as likely to get seriously ill and die as an unvaccinated person. This seems like a really strange oversight. All of the vaccines that have produced Phase 3 data have shown getting up towards 100% reduction in severe illness - so even the unlucky few who do get ill are much less likely to end up in hospital or die. This model, if I'm understanding it right, does not take this into account at all.
Second, as pointed out by @Firefliess on the data thread, the 'already vaccinated' figures in the model are wrong and significantly under-counted.
Both of these issues will have made the model pretty pessimistic.
I'm not saying I could have done any better - but the fact is that we just don't have the info we need to be making these sorts of predictions yet, and until we do, you might as well use tea leaves.
Anyway, long story short, this study really worried me before I read it, and now it really doesn't.

Thanks @clarexbp that’s really helpful.

Tea leaves predictions. The next thread I think

@InterfectoremVulpes

Essex has turned blue 🥳

Yay! I’ve been offline most of today, so great to come on here and this.

Sorry for the wobble last night. I hope I didn't upset anyone. I didn't belive the 'facts' I was given but it's hard to fight it when you're not feeling rational yourself. Not sure how much of that came across.

Probably not helped by the fact that DS is up for the day earlier and earlier, bouncing in his cot at 5am. I'm feeling better this morning, early as it is, so thank you for the help last night.

The Warwick predictions look like they can go on a pile with the 4000 deaths a day research thankfully.

You have nothing to say sorry about. Sure everyone here has their wobbly moments. Especially this last year

I have a baby too. Someone to cuddle my own wobble moments but pigging tiring. Though I am up most nights because lockdown making me anxious.

Anyway they should really call this thread the safe wobbles and good news thread

I had a bad day yesterday because DD was in a bad way . Generally I'm ok as so introverted but she is struggling so I find that hard. But I do feel optimistic about the future . The problem is that for people who are really finding this hard this promise doesn't help (as I see with DD) and I think that's why some people cannot be positive .

Good news today all care homes have been offered the jab.

just checking in been looking for new thread

Just been on the BBC live news feed and I feel theres a bit of a shift of mood. Of course I could be reading it wrong. The tone just feels a bit more positive than the usual doom and gloom news. Of course we still have some work to do etc, but I dont know it just felt not quite as dark as usual

@OrangeBananaFish

Just been on the BBC live news feed and I feel theres a bit of a shift of mood. Of course I could be reading it wrong. The tone just feels a bit more positive than the usual doom and gloom news. Of course we still have some work to do etc, but I dont know it just felt not quite as dark as usual

I noticed a piece this morning quoting an infectious disease expert who advises the government saying that things will be greatly improved by summer (I paraphrase), which felt at odds with the Warwick paper. Plus there is positive coverage of the situation in Israel

Loving the thread everyone 😄

I just had a count up, and across all the vaccines, the UK has ordered over 350 million doses. I know they won't all prove to be effective, but that's one hell of an order quantity! Even at 2 doses each that is 100 million above the population.