Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 28th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@TheSunIsStillShining in either scenarios the whole country will be vaccinated by nov(ish), so nowhere am I saying to do endless studies and research. I agree with the need for speed. Just not sure atm that speed is based upon science and not agenda.*
What agenda do you think MHRA and JCVI have? They are scientists and healthcare professionals.

I wonder if we will ever see an analysis of what last year's costs were. And maybe some experts could put next to it what would it have cost us to close the borders, pay ppl to isolate, pay furlough for everyone possible for 2-3 months, etc... so something similar to NZ.
My gut feeling is that any country who is prolonging it's "suffering" is hemorrhaging money and getting nowhere fast.

We're already locked down. Stronger enforcement on offices regarding need to go to work is possible, and pressure needs to come from local public health there. There could be a short sharp non-essential factory plus building site closure, but those don't seem to be causing major issues at the moment, it's the essential food/ medical facilities that seem to have had the outbreaks. Vaccinating our way out looks like the best strategy, with efforts put into persuasion for anyone who isn't keen on being vaccinated (except for medical reasons).

@MRex
Let's agree to disagree on this issue. You trust them to be independent professionals who are only looking at science.
I don't. No point in debate as this is an issue where I can't prove my right/wrong - as I don't have access to all data. and neither can you. We come from different worlds, we have been socialized differently and in this case it is very obvious how it has shaped us differently :)
I believe in transparency and get antsy when I have to "trust" and "believe" any powers that be.

someone said a bit higher up that on should not be playing cards if they show all their hands - to me that mentality is a problem. I want to be treated as a grown up.
Also in that post pp said that being transparent and eg. having models be available would frighten a lot of ppl and would do damage to their mh. so, because there are less resilient (less educated) people out there, those who have the mental capacity to understand logical correlations and trains of thoughts should be kept in the dark so we don't upset them? What kind of backward logic is that?

I just don’t see that there would be a huge appetite by the public for more restrictions, given that all the trends going in the right direction. And if you don’t get acceptance /consent by the public, then compliance will be low.

I think it's about understanding how non-governmental bodies in the UK work @TheSunIsStillShining. I appreciate you have a different background, but it's hard not to be offended on behalf of professionals you are suggesting have some dark ulterior motives. The findings are all published, what do you think is being hidden?

No effect yet of vaccine yet in over 80s?

mobile.twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1358016395276136450

@TheSunIsStillShining

again and again I don't understand this lack of transparency. What will happen? other nations will attack us for our vacc supplies? Even me - a dystopia loving cynical b*..- can't see that happening. :)

But that is exactly what happened. Nicola Sturgeon released data on Scotlands roll out. This data was analysed and assessed to mean England has X. This directly impacted on the dispute between EU and AZ as to how it had handled distribution of available vaccine doses.

Sturgeon released confidential data and it had consequences.

What day was peak cases around 4th Jan?

So that graph runs to 23 days past peak which puts it ending roughly at 27th of jan.

Is it still 22 says that the vaccine effect properly kicks in?

• 21 days for vaccine to properly kick in

According to The Times, all over 50s to be vaccinated by end April and majority of other adults by end May

@InterfectoremVulpes

What day was peak cases around 4th Jan?

So that graph runs to 23 days past peak which puts it ending roughly at 27th of jan.

Is it still 22 says that the vaccine effect properly kicks in?

So if we take 21 days as the point the vaccine starts to have an effect, then it would only apply to those vaccinated at the very start of Jan or before- which was around 500k and I dont know how many of those were over 80.

So, I guess what I am saying is the graph cuts off too early to see any effect.

I think the comments pointing out that a lot of over-80s only received their first jabs two weeks ago are apt. Too early to tell.

R4 headlines just saying someone (head of vaccine roll out I think) says the "by May" statement is a very optimistic forecast.

On the over 80's, don't we have the situation where no-one who was in hospital or under treatment for anything else would've been vaccinated (Like Captain Tom), and also no care homes where there was an active outbreak would've had any vaccinations.

And those are the over 80's most likely to be exposed to the vaccine, and hence still very likely to become a case, as they were before vaccination. The community over 80's who have much lower chances of being exposed to the virus, are the ones who were vaccinated, and care homes where there was no virus - so only the care homes where it was introduced after vaccination would be seeing if vaccinated exposure made a difference.

Excellent point sirfred.

On vaccination capacity, if supply continues, then lots of big centres ( football stadiums etc) are coming on stream. In Yorkshire there are two near me opening on Monday ( hoping to get shifts there, so being updated) which should help with the extra demand when second vaccines are given.

And those are the over 80's most likely to be exposed to the vaccine

Exposed to the virus of course!

Our GP said they are starting their own vaccinations soon. There was already a hub for Pfizer with other GPs. It's all about the supply, our GP regularly gets all flu vaccines done on 2 Saturdays, if every GP should get doses it would go very fast.

The over 80s are not just more vulnerable because of age but also because they are more likely to need care and are therefore exposed to carers coming into their homes. Those who are housebound have also been the last to be vaccinated in their group, and many are still waiting. This is because Pfizer was not suitable to transport out and of course it's much slower for a nurse to go from house to house vaccinating than for patients to go to surgery.

I think we need a little more patience to expect to see an impact of the vaccine on whole age groups, as the roll out has been gradual with a lot of care homes in particular waiting longer than you might have hoped. The only data I've seen for Israel looks over a longer period and also a a wider age group (over 70s), so less skewed by care home outbreaks.

There ought to be data at the individual level though - how many of the cases in over 80s were in people who'd been vaccinated at least two weeks ago? They collect this data, so it's frustrating that it's not been published. People are bound to speculate that the one dose regime may not work as well as hoped, so why not ensure the data is out there to show if it does?

@MRex that will make a big difference. As an example my family’s GP (NI) grouped together with other local practices, used a large venue, and did their over 80s on one day in Jan, then last week did their 75-79 (97% uptake!), and next week are doing 70-74, so it has been very speedy once they got supplies

We could possibly look at NI care homes as an example of vaccine effect - they started their roll out pre-Christmas, with all care homes now having had first doses and 90% having had second doses. Per yesterday’s NI dashboard update, their care home outbreaks have decreased from 127 last week to 98 yesterday.

And per the vaccination plan, most of these residents will have received Pfizer (barring any allergies etc)

www.publichealth.hscni.net/news/care-home-vaccination-roll-out-across-northern-ireland-almost-complete

app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9

www.health-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/health/covid-vacc-prog-update-plan.pdf

Surprisingly, our GP says the hub did 65+ yesterday by appointment. It doesn't say how many are left to do, but that's not a huge group. We still don't know if DH will be group 6 or not, so unsure how much to monitor his phone.

That sounds positive @lurker101. I'm telling impatient for the detailed vaccination data, hopefully it'll go up this week.

Regarding the graph showing rates for over 80s and under 80s falling the same, this could just be coincidence.

The over 80s are generally less mobile than the under 80s - many in homes or housebound; a far smaller proportion of them go regularly to the shops, use buses, trains, etc. even in normal times. I doubt many will have changed their 'lifestyle' significantly over the past month, and yet we see a substantial drop in cases for this age group.

On the other hand, the under 80s have been in a forced lockdown. Like many I have stopped seeing family both indoors and outdoors; I haven't seen my regular group of friends outdoors since that was banned late last year; lots of children are not in school; a lot of shops are closed; my OH does the shopping without me or vice versa. We walk most places rather than taking the bus or underground.

So unlike the over 80s, many many under80s have been forced to changed their behaviour significantly and in doing so now have contact with far fewer people - yet both graphs show a substantial fall.

I still have my fingers crossed that the drop for the over 80s is the beginnings of the vaccine effect whilst the drop in the under 80s is the lockdown effect.