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Germany saying AZ vaccine only 8% effective in over 65s *MNHQ noting that this story has been widely debunked*

864 replies

dbIdb · 26/01/2021 00:07

What fresh hell is this.

Why, why, why was the Oxford trial/data reporting so sloppy?

How has it come to this??

OP posts:
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RedToothBrush · 26/01/2021 22:53

It was a lottery. Especially early on. But moving fast and first and backing multiple horses was going to give you better odds in the gamble.

The UK backed 6 horses. To date 3 have come in. And the UK seems to have got superior contracts because it got the benefit of first come first served.
www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-vaccine-world-health-organization-uk-airfinity-a9703911.html
In September it was reported the UK had already preordered the highest rate of vaccine per head of population in the world. Speed mattered.

It really could have gone the other way. The EU actually realised it had shown favour to projects which weren't going to yield the first results so had to relook at its strategy. I particularly note that French commerical interests were initially centred. It wasn't a neutral decision to do that over other vaccine programmes.

I'm not saying the UK has acted in a way that is good. Vaccine nationalism isn't a good thing. But its also a reality it was always going to happen and the UK leaving transition was always going to make that more acute. The UK government HAD to cover its arse to a degree that is hard to argue against in order to justify its Brexit policy.

Politics and vaccine supply are unavoidably and explicitly linked. You can't talk about one without the other being relevant right now because vaccine rollout is sooo essential to everything else.

IcedPurple · 26/01/2021 22:55

However, our contracts did include export bans and the EU ones did not.

It wasn't really an export ban. Oxford was working with the British govt and got their order in first, months before the EU got round to it, and stipulated that their order should be fulfilled before being diverted elsewhere. Sounds quite reasonable to me.

There would have been absolute outrage here if we could not have got access to Pfizer/BioNTech until the EU was supplies.

Why? First come first served. Isn't that the norm when fulfilling orders?

In any case, I don't understand the need for hypothetical scenarios. That isn't what happened. What happened is that the EU dragged its heels and messed up vaccine procurement spectacularly. That's on them.

RedToothBrush · 26/01/2021 22:55

@MyHeartIsNeverOnTime

Perhaps instead of warring of with our neighbours, who have vaccinated at a rate per capita that is a fifth of us, we should all look across the pond to the US, who appear to be accumulating a vast reservoir of vaccine doses and don’t seem to give a shit about the rest of the world.
You might want to look at the delivery dates on those vaccines and whats actually approved. Its not as great as it looks on the face of it.
HelloThereMeHearties · 26/01/2021 22:58

I've just posted this on another thread, but here it is again. A really interesting, reassuring interview (in English) with the French CEO of AstraZeneca:

www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2021/01/26/news/interview_pascal_soriot_ceo_astrazeneca_coronavirus_covid_vaccines-284349628/

HelloThereMeHearties · 26/01/2021 23:00

Oh whoops, should have RTFT. Still, no harm in posting the link twice Smile

MyHeartIsNeverOnTime · 26/01/2021 23:02

@RedToothBrush

They’ve just reached an agreement with Moderna and Pfizer for another 200 million doses by summer. Between these two alone they have 600,000 million doses, enough capacity to vaccinate basically their entire population by the end of summer. And that’s without AZ or J&J.

www.nytimes.com/live/2021/01/26/world/covid-19-coronavirus?type=styln-live-updates&label=coronavirus%20updates&index=0

HelloThereMeHearties · 26/01/2021 23:02

@Eyewhisker

I really hope that the EU don’t limit the Pfizer exports, but we should be very clear that if they were to, it would simply be copying the export restrictions the U.K. has imposed on the Oxford vaccine.

I’m sure it won’t happen, but if we impose export bans in contracts, there is a risk it comes back to bite us, if others also do.

Well I'm sorry but you are talking nonsense. The UK has not placed any export restrictions at all on the Oxford vaccine. That is utter fake news, although I'm sure it fits your agenda.
Motorina · 26/01/2021 23:03

@HelloThereMeHearties it's a good link Smile

lllllllllll · 26/01/2021 23:03

one that could threaten human life on earth as we know it.

@jasjas1973 What are you, the fifth member of REM? Don’t be so dramatic please, it’s not helpful.

lllllllllll · 26/01/2021 23:10

In any case, I don't understand the need for hypothetical scenarios. That isn't what happened. What happened is that the EU dragged its heels and messed up vaccine procurement spectacularly. That's on them.

Quite!

RedToothBrush · 26/01/2021 23:23

@IcedPurple

However, our contracts did include export bans and the EU ones did not.

It wasn't really an export ban. Oxford was working with the British govt and got their order in first, months before the EU got round to it, and stipulated that their order should be fulfilled before being diverted elsewhere. Sounds quite reasonable to me.

There would have been absolute outrage here if we could not have got access to Pfizer/BioNTech until the EU was supplies.

Why? First come first served. Isn't that the norm when fulfilling orders?

In any case, I don't understand the need for hypothetical scenarios. That isn't what happened. What happened is that the EU dragged its heels and messed up vaccine procurement spectacularly. That's on them.

Germany are having an internal debate over the export of German made Pfizer vaccine to other EU states. There are some who want to reserve it for Germany first. They've made a political decision not to.

That doesn't mean any other country in the world is obliged to have a policy of nonprotectionism.

Ultimately the nonprotectionism from Germany to the rest of the EU is for political reasons and to ensure EU harmony. It is a policy based on its own political interests and priorities.

Equally the UK has done the same.

Trouble is the two policies clash somewhat but neither has done anything 'wrong' as such. Should the UK have made deals that didn't put its own interests first and not gone for the best deal it could get? (We've been having this debate for some time over the EU-UK deal.)

Why did the UK have to consider whether the EU would like it or not when making a closed commerical deal with a corporate body? The EU - and germany in particular - have made decisions not to do certain things. Thats not the concern of the UK though.

The UK certainly HAS NOT issued an export ban. It has reached a deal with AZ which gives them most favourable status. The EU wanted that but didn't get it.

Thats the bit the EU don't like. But they DID know and they DID agree to it.

Now months after this, they are kicking up a stink.

Its throwing its weight around to try and renegotiate or to politically hamper existing commercial contracts. Thats not the UK doing that. Thats the very definition of trying to start a trade dispute. Its a hostile action against someone. The AZ deal with the UK isn't a hostile action.

I understand WHY the EU is doing it. I understand thats what trade blocks do. It still doesn't give the EU a higher claim. It just highlights poor decision making which is forcing this behaviour. It is unlikely to produce much apart from bad blood which isn't good for anyone.

(The irony here is pretty bloody epic btw. I do feel like I'm having a reverse deja vu. The principles remain the same though).

RedToothBrush · 26/01/2021 23:28

[quote MyHeartIsNeverOnTime]@RedToothBrush

They’ve just reached an agreement with Moderna and Pfizer for another 200 million doses by summer. Between these two alone they have 600,000 million doses, enough capacity to vaccinate basically their entire population by the end of summer. And that’s without AZ or J&J.

www.nytimes.com/live/2021/01/26/world/covid-19-coronavirus?type=styln-live-updates&label=coronavirus%20updates&index=0[/quote]
'By the end of the summer'

Biden wants to move quicker. He can't. He hasn't got enough vaccine atm.

The US can't get those Pfizer doses until June. At the earliest. If there are further production issues that could roll back.

The US had the option on 100million doses to be delivered from March onwards. Trump turned it down.

Those doses are now going to the EU.

The US are hardly on top of their supply/demand issues. They've just made an order thats all.

MyHeartIsNeverOnTime · 26/01/2021 23:32

Yes, but they claim explicitly to be on track (with those extra doses) to vaccinate the entire population by the end of summer. Is anybody other than a handful of wealthy Gulf states and Israel in that league? If they approve AZ and J&J they are going to be awash with vaccine.

tobee · 26/01/2021 23:37

@MyHeartIsNeverOnTime

Yes, but they claim explicitly to be on track (with those extra doses) to vaccinate the entire population by the end of summer. Is anybody other than a handful of wealthy Gulf states and Israel in that league? If they approve AZ and J&J they are going to be awash with vaccine.

Sorry I've lost track, who is "they" here? Which population?

RedToothBrush · 26/01/2021 23:42

@MyHeartIsNeverOnTime

Yes, but they claim explicitly to be on track (with those extra doses) to vaccinate the entire population by the end of summer. Is anybody other than a handful of wealthy Gulf states and Israel in that league? If they approve AZ and J&J they are going to be awash with vaccine.
You don't claim 'oh we have had a fuck up which will cost us months of lost time and prolong the crisis but hey we've fixed it now - just don't die or go bankrupt whilst we sit around twiddling our thumbs waiting for our delivery'. Its politically not a position you can hold.

You kind of spin it a bit differently.

Of course they are going to frame it as 'hey everything is going great guns'.

RedToothBrush · 26/01/2021 23:46

Ft editorial tonight.

Germany saying AZ vaccine only 8% effective in over 65s *MNHQ noting that this story has been widely debunked*
donewithitalltodayandxmas · 26/01/2021 23:51

@Hellotheremehearties thanks for posting link , very interesting

donewithitalltodayandxmas · 26/01/2021 23:58

@eyewhisker read think posted that explains it and export ban is not really the right way to
Explain it
The reality is al of is want the vaccine quicker than any of them can produce , I mean we are not due to get the modena one for a while.
We can only hope some more get approved as more there are the more to go around

HelloThereMeHearties · 26/01/2021 23:58

@RedToothBrush that is a really fantastic post about what the EU and UK have done, when, and why. Very clear-sighted!

donewithitalltodayandxmas · 27/01/2021 00:03

@iwantmysay read some links posted explains what was in contract and what they knew .

user1471439240 · 27/01/2021 00:06

Zeneca was born out of the pharmaceutical arm of ICI in the early 90s. ICI was the leading British chemical company. We have good history

HelloThereMeHearties · 27/01/2021 00:13

@user1471439240

Zeneca was born out of the pharmaceutical arm of ICI in the early 90s. ICI was the leading British chemical company. We have good history
We do. Also, countries from around the world use our MHRA to approve their drugs - because it's world-leading.
sashagabadon · 27/01/2021 07:45

I wonder if the next time the world/EU is in this situation it is better to have a nominated agreed country that leads, presumably German. Ie one country takes control for procurement, logistics etc. and the other countries agree to defer. Payment can be worked out later as my understanding is that dose price was a major sticking point for some countries.
This would leave one country exposed if it again has issues but otherwise what is the solution?
Actually the U.K. is a model the EU could learn from for this type of thing, England leading on behalf of the 4 nations and overseas territories and sharing proportionally. But each country rolling their own supply out
More difficult with 27 countries of course

sashagabadon · 27/01/2021 07:48

I should say Westminster leading rather than England

Baileysforchristmas · 27/01/2021 07:50

Well if the EU now ban orders being exported from outside the EU how bad will that make them look? Very sour grapes to me

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