Is the government preparing is for a New Zealand scenario?

[lockdownbreakdown]

Does anyone else think we are going to be locked down until the majority are vaccinated and then the borders are going to be closed indefinitely to prevent new strains? I definitely get this vibe from all the stuff leaked in the press. It seems to be the only way we can stop new variant from ruining the vaccination programme as we cant vaccinate the kids if we let in new strains from abroad we will be going back into lockdown indefinitely. Thoughts?

I'm no fan of our current government but I think one of the few things that would not improve them is to listen to the advice on the MN preppers' board... Again, closing the borders in January would have been done against actual expert advice, including the WHO

Agree, the mistakes we made weren't in Feb March, given the unprecedented situation, but in the summer through to winter.
Flights, hols, go back to work, hussle bussle, 5 days of xmas...it was almost as if CV had gone away and wasn't coming back.

We wasted a golden opportunity to really clamp down on CV, after the deaths and LD of the spring... the same is true of most of europe too.

If you think you can just give up your privacy in an emergency and then get it back then I assume you don't know much about history..

Probably more than you.

But the point is that being alive means you can try and get them back, dead? no chance.

We gave up many freedoms in many different wars and emergencies but we have always got them them back in more normal times, so your assertion, in relation to europe and the UK is incorrect.

Perhaps the one freedom we gave up last May, which i was totally against, was the cancellation of local elections.... that is scary, imagine if the next GE was this May and the incumbent govt were behind in the polls?

I was wondering the same thing OP.

My point isn’t that Boris should have someone on mumsnet 24/7, sniffing out international news, my point is that if Jane Bloggs was getting wind of something in mid January, somebody, somewhere was trying to get Boris to listen to what was coming out of China in December. The same way that they had people modelling scenarios in March, April etc, those people could have been put to work much earlier.

Our government have been reactive throughout as opposed to proactive, at huge cost to all of us.

Sorry, I haven’t read the thread so just responding to OP.

If this is where we’re heading it’s going to take a bloody long time isn’t it? To make it properly work.

@Moondust001 You're so right about the government enjoying the power. The more Saint Boris and his merry men speak with their cries of "alas" and "might" and "maybe" and "stricter" and "tougher", the more they look as if they are fucking with our heads for shits and giggles.

@AlohaMolly

My point isn’t that Boris should have someone on mumsnet 24/7, sniffing out international news, my point is that if Jane Bloggs was getting wind of something in mid January, somebody, somewhere was trying to get Boris to listen to what was coming out of China in December. The same way that they had people modelling scenarios in March, April etc, those people could have been put to work much earlier.

Our government have been reactive throughout as opposed to proactive, at huge cost to all of us.

Donald Trump stopped all flights from China and was massively criticised for it.

Absolutely no way the British public or parliament would have accepted shutting down the country in February. No other European country did either.

I dont see why Ireland wouldn't follow the same strategy as the UK. Then it's not an issue. After all we are both

There were some extensive interviews this week with Irish politicians about this issue, discussing how the only way a mandatory (hotel) quarantine is possible is if they adopt a two-island solution, where it is the same in both countries. And they have already said they probably don't have enough hotel rooms and staff in Ireland to enforce a hotel quarantine.

In the absence of this, the government could close down GB and enforce a hotel quarantine, but not the whole of the UK. People could simply fly to Dublin, drive to Belfast airport and then fly on to England that way. Hotel quarantine evaded. The government must know this is totally unworkable in practice.

@AlohaMolly

My point isn’t that Boris should have someone on mumsnet 24/7, sniffing out international news, my point is that if Jane Bloggs was getting wind of something in mid January, somebody, somewhere was trying to get Boris to listen to what was coming out of China in December. The same way that they had people modelling scenarios in March, April etc, those people could have been put to work much earlier.

Our government have been reactive throughout as opposed to proactive, at huge cost to all of us.

Yes he was listening to the WHO like everyone else.

Was it Taiwan who did it differently? Good on them but we had little reason to mistrust

Do you remember how central the WHO were back then?

What would parliament have voted for on behalf of public?

Johnson isn't listening to the WHO or the BMJ on vaccines, so why the assurance he was listening to them in March?

Germany also didn't listen to them either, testing to see whether human to human transmission was possible, even though the WHO said no in january.

Govt is about leadership, taking the difficult decisions, regardless of what the fickle public "want"

@jasjas1973

If you think you can just give up your privacy in an emergency and then get it back then I assume you don't know much about history..

Probably more than you.

But the point is that being alive means you can try and get them back, dead? no chance.

We gave up many freedoms in many different wars and emergencies but we have always got them them back in more normal times, so your assertion, in relation to europe and the UK is incorrect.

Perhaps the one freedom we gave up last May, which i was totally against, was the cancellation of local elections.... that is scary, imagine if the next GE was this May and the incumbent govt were behind in the polls?

I don't think you do

I don't think Sage/CMO/CSO advised closing the borders in March 2020 (nor of course the WHO, as pp have already said). NZ mners, am I right in thinking that the NZ govt was following its sage- equivalent's advice when it decided to close the borders?

However obvious it seemed to some then (and I agree that some were calling for it), I think it is true that it was not the advice that the UK govt was being given at the time.

"Similar in Japan. Good leadership, collaborative approach, high level of compliance. "

What are the restrictions in Japan? It is surprisingly difficult to find much discussion of that, and would be fascinating to know how they have achieved low levels of cv.

"Johnson isn't listening to the WHO or the BMJ on vaccines"

Is that the second dose issue? I think it's the advice of Sage/CMO/CSO isn't it?

@Aixenprovence

I don't think Sage/CMO/CSO advised closing the borders in March 2020 (nor of course the WHO, as pp have already said). NZ mners, am I right in thinking that the NZ govt was following its sage- equivalent's advice when it decided to close the borders?

However obvious it seemed to some then (and I agree that some were calling for it), I think it is true that it was not the advice that the UK govt was being given at the time.

"Similar in Japan. Good leadership, collaborative approach, high level of compliance. "

What are the restrictions in Japan? It is surprisingly difficult to find much discussion of that, and would be fascinating to know how they have achieved low levels of cv.

I think March was too late for us if people are suggesting we could do the same

To do the same it would have had to be Jan

@Aixenprovence

"Johnson isn't listening to the WHO or the BMJ on vaccines"

Is that the second dose issue? I think it's the advice of Sage/CMO/CSO isn't it?

True

Yes, and Sage wasn't advising it in January 2020. I suppose my point is that on the borders issue, it seems that the UK government did not act in a way which was contrary to the advice of its scientific advisers in early 2020.

And others have pointed out that there is a land border with Ireland - indeed there is a Common Travel Area.

@Aixenprovence

Yes, and Sage wasn't advising it in January 2020. I suppose my point is that on the borders issue, it seems that the UK government did not act in a way which was contrary to the advice of its scientific advisers in early 2020.

And others have pointed out that there is a land border with Ireland - indeed there is a Common Travel Area.

Yes I get you. Agree

If no one went to work in New Zealand for 7 weeks who looked after all your care homes residents? GP services provided? What about water supply? Were there any fires needing to be put out? Emergency vet care?

I asked the same myself earlier - no reply so far

Was it Taiwan who did it differently? Good on them but we had little reason to mistrust (the WHO)

Granted there are tensions between China and Taiwan, but given their proximity and (potentially) their greater knowledge, maybe it would have been wiser to follow their example ... especially given some of the questions raised about the Chinese regime's links with the WHO

And (not surprisingly given the CTA), quarantine doesn't apply to people entering from Ireland:

Before you return to the UK you must provide your journey and contact details. You must self-isolate when you enter the UK from any foreign country except Ireland, unless you have a valid exemption.

So I suppose the question is - given that we have to have exemptions for essential workers, accompanied freight (unless we want to switch immediately to unaccompanied freight only, which would require huge organisation to avoid shortages of food, and probably other supplies) etc, does the benefit from closing the borders/requiring supervised quarantine to everyone else outweigh the costs?

Or is the reality that the improvement would be too marginal to be worth it, given that others will still be entering the UK? I don't know!
Obviously that assessment will change depending on the state of the virus.

Aixenprovence I know very little about the restrictions within Japan, but if it helps there's a link here about entry. The first bits refer to this year, but there are press conference links below them which explain 2020

www.uk.emb-japan.go.jp/itpr_en/COVID-19.html

[quote MaxNormal]@Chaotic45 DH is abroad for work just now. It can't be done by zoom.
We had no income for seven months at the start of the pandemic.
Feel free to pay our mortgage though if you feel that strongly about it.[/quote]
How is that different from all the other workers and self employed who are prohibited from working at the moment? I.e. pubs/restaurants/theatres etc?? There are 3 million self employed who've been excluded from the Govt's covid support schemes. You can't have exemptions from restrictions for some people and not others.

@jasjas1973

Johnson isn't listening to the WHO or the BMJ on vaccines, so why the assurance he was listening to them in March?

Germany also didn't listen to them either, testing to see whether human to human transmission was possible, even though the WHO said no in january.

Govt is about leadership, taking the difficult decisions, regardless of what the fickle public "want"

This.

@jasjas1973

I'm no fan of our current government but I think one of the few things that would not improve them is to listen to the advice on the MN preppers' board... Again, closing the borders in January would have been done against actual expert advice, including the WHO

Agree, the mistakes we made weren't in Feb March, given the unprecedented situation, but in the summer through to winter.
Flights, hols, go back to work, hussle bussle, 5 days of xmas...it was almost as if CV had gone away and wasn't coming back.

We wasted a golden opportunity to really clamp down on CV, after the deaths and LD of the spring... the same is true of most of europe too.

Fully agree. The media pushed the Govt into relaxing too much too quickly, not helped by stupid initiatives such as eat out to help out and the VAT reduction for hospitality. Why single out the industries where people gather for long periods of time usually in small spaces, for tax incentives, and ignore all the much safer industries?? The govt must have been heavily lobbed by the hospitality industry and look where that got us. Any increase in the economy is more than lost by the ongoing restrictions/lockdowns that opening up too early and giving incentive caused.

I am in New Zealand. It is much much too late for the UK to pursue NZ strategy- lockdown had to be early and strong. Even now UK lockdown is absolutely nothing like the lockdown in March and April here- it was very very strict.
I actually think we will end up with another lockdown here too -the new virus is so so contagious.