Is the government preparing is for a New Zealand scenario?

[lockdownbreakdown]

Does anyone else think we are going to be locked down until the majority are vaccinated and then the borders are going to be closed indefinitely to prevent new strains? I definitely get this vibe from all the stuff leaked in the press. It seems to be the only way we can stop new variant from ruining the vaccination programme as we cant vaccinate the kids if we let in new strains from abroad we will be going back into lockdown indefinitely. Thoughts?

For eg, my uneducated guess is that the number of people going on short haul holidays (3 weeks or less, say) abroad would be close to zero if you had to pay for supervised quarantine on return. (Though I don't know what proportion they are usually, presumably it increases massively at school half term and holidays). Not including family visits in my 'zero' prediction.

Oops just seen that's the 3rd post in a row from me - always a sign of being over-interested!

Simon Calder was just in the bbc news explaining how it would work. You'd be in a hotel paying for the room and you would have no visitors, no cleaning, just you in a room for the quarantine period. I can't see how it's worth it unless your travel is utterly essential eg sick parent, you are the only person in the world that can fix a machine

Thanks sooverthemill - I agree it seems unlikely that anyone would go abroad on holiday for 2 weeks in those circs, and that's not even taking into account the cost?
Was he asked about the Ireland/NI issue? (I realise he's a journalist not the govt, so obviously not his responsibility, but an interesting issue!)

The only person in the world who can fix a machine I assume would get an exemption - maybe I am wrong!

Simon Calder was just in the bbc news explaining how it would work.

Given that's how it's done in some countries it's a reasonable guess..

TBH just as importantly did he explain how he thought people were going to be transported from the aircraft side/arrivals hall to the chosen hotel(s)?

Hopefully it's not going to be: take cab or board Hotel Hoppa bus H666, Go to XXX Premier Inn, and at reception ask to sign in for quarantine..

No, because you still refuse to do lockdown properly.
You are still all visiting friends and family and going to school and work.
We, in NZ stayed home. All of us. For 7 weeks. At home. No work. At all. You lie keep refusing to do this.

Thank you for this @Athrawes. We have endured intermittent lockdown for almost a year. A great many of us are properly cracking up. Some are suicidal. Most of us have followed the rules, and continue to do so. I don’t know ANYONE who is visiting friends and family currently.

Why not kick us while we’re down?

Or, you know, acknowledge the differences between our two countries, and understand that our government has made numerous mistakes which have affected our rates.

So thank you for your helpful words on a morning in which I already feel utterly bleak and hopeless. 👏🏻

Have any of the govt been talking about this on the radio ints today? Would be interesting to hear their views on the exit strategy - ie when can the restrictions be lifted if the policy is for the purpose of preventing vaccine-resistant mutations entering the UK?

Interestingly (re comments below) I see that Australia has now suspended its NZ travel bubble for 3 days. Guardian reports New Zealand health authorities are concerned because the person with the SA variant was identified after she had left the hotel after serving her full quarantine period and after producing two negative test results.

He was assuming Australian type system so you'd be escorted off the plan by an official and taken to a hotel. You would stay in room, no smoking, but food would be delivered to you. Link here to his article in the Independent paper

@Aixenprovence

The only person in the world who can fix a machine I assume would get an exemption - maybe I am wrong!

If it's "mission critical" machine (hospital, nuclear power station etc etc etc etc ) then I think exemptions are inevitable. Exemptions for those working in the logistics chain are also inevitable.

That then takes us back to the thorny issue that the politicians will have to sell any scheme to those that think the only answer is to "lockdown like New Zealand"...

I think if "managed quarantine" is announced there's going to be a lot of devil hidden in the detail...

Yes notimagain - though in fact pp below have said NZ and Aus also have exemptions for essential workers, so it seems that doesn't necessarily prevent the system working.

One big difference between NZ/Aus and UK may be UK reliance on freight drivers for food and other supplies - though as another pp has said, they may not be a huge risk if they don't have many interactions.

I do find interesting the question of how a govt would be willing to take the political risk of lifting the restrictions - same goes for other governments as well of course.

@Sooverthemill

He was assuming Australian type system so you'd be escorted off the plan by an official and taken to a hotel. You would stay in room, no smoking, but food would be delivered to you. Link here to his article in the Independent paper

I suspected that would be his answer......

Having had a very quick look at the Indy piece but can't see if he mentioned exactly how many people per week the likes of Sydney airport allow in?

I believe ATM the whole of New South Wales is capped at about 1500 people aweek_ in hotel quarantine.

People familiar with the Australian caps, can I ask what happens if an Australian’s visa expires while they’re abroad? Do they have any kind of priority to return?

I know a few Brits who are working or studying abroad on visas that will expire within the next year.

@waterlego

*No, because you still refuse to do lockdown properly. You are still all visiting friends and family and going to school and work. We, in NZ stayed home. All of us. For 7 weeks. At home. No work. At all. You lie keep refusing to do this.*

Thank you for this @Athrawes. We have endured intermittent lockdown for almost a year. A great many of us are properly cracking up. Some are suicidal. Most of us have followed the rules, and continue to do so. I don’t know ANYONE who is visiting friends and family currently.

Why not kick us while we’re down?

Or, you know, acknowledge the differences between our two countries, and understand that our government has made numerous mistakes which have affected our rates.

So thank you for your helpful words on a morning in which I already feel utterly bleak and hopeless. 👏🏻

Water I know. It’s always nice for these O/S posters to lob in.

@Aixenprovence

For eg, my uneducated guess is that the number of people going on short haul holidays (3 weeks or less, say) abroad would be close to zero if you had to pay for supervised quarantine on return. (Though I don't know what proportion they are usually, presumably it increases massively at school half term and holidays). Not including family visits in my 'zero' prediction.

Oops just seen that's the 3rd post in a row from me - always a sign of being over-interested!

Yes I agree

@Sooverthemill

He was assuming Australian type system so you'd be escorted off the plan by an official and taken to a hotel. You would stay in room, no smoking, but food would be delivered to you. Link here to his article in the Independent paper

Would you be quarantined individually or would couples/families be in the same room?

It doesn't say @PinkSparklyPussyCat so I cannot guess

@waterlego sorry you’re feeling so low. It’s does feel like a succession of bad news at the moment.

It’s awful for posters in other countries to rub their hands in glee and say ‘oh it’s all your fault what with your rule breaking and whinging’ Utter ignorance. Most have followed the rules and have had a year of restrictions and not seen family or friends.

Complete failure to recognise the obvious differences between the countries which so many have eloquently pointed out.

Would you be quarantined individually or would couples/families be in the same room?

I don't think anybody here as any idea how the UK is going to handle this since it's all guess work pending any announcement but if you follow the Australian model:

www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/quarantine-faqs.aspx#family

"I have a family travelling with me. How will we manage in a hotel room?

"There are varied accommodation facilities available.
You may be accommodated in a hotel with adjoining rooms or possibly an apartment hotel, depending on availability. This is not pre-arranged."

FWIW I've already done one of these (obviously overseas, and fortunately not for fourteen days) and whilst there were no family travelling the group members who really struggled with the whole deal were the smokers..

The threat of being quarantined on my own is enough to stop me travelling (not that I'm planning on it)! I couldn't bear it, although DH might be quietly requesting an individual room!

DD just did quarantine in the NT. They were escorted off the plane (a repatriation flight, so all had been tested and isolating in a hotel in Germany prior to flying), tested again, where two tested positive after being negative before the flight, then put on a bus with a police escort to the quarantine facility.
They’d all been provided with iPads, prepaid Australian SIM cards, chocolate and other treats, even mini Christmas trees. They wore arm bands which sent Health info to the nursing team, they were checked every day to make sure they were ok. They had balconies they could sit on and talk to neighbours, but they couldn’t leave their rooms. They were really well looked after, with good food and even a proper Christmas dinner. It was all very impressive.
Everyone was tested again on day 11 before being taken to Darwin on day 14 to continue their journeys.
I’m not sure how practical it would be for the uk to do something similar, but there were a lot of empty hotels at Manchester Airport when I left in March, so it shouldn’t be impossible.

@ PicsInRed mentioned my greatest worry about quarantine hotels. When well run, they should work, but there have been many examples of inside hotel cross contamination.
I mentioned on another thread. Israel for example decided to stop quarantine hotel as it was a nightmare to maintain SD at the airport/in the bus/at reception.
Source :
Israel officially scraps hotel quarantine requirement for returning travelers

Israel have now instead a ban of foreigners/non residents coming in, a requirement for a neg cv19 to board a plane, isolation form to hand in with official on arrival, phone tracking of isolated people (huge fine if you get out), lockdown, mass vaccinations, and now a one week closure of the airport (except freight, funerals, relocation, etc) as a circuit breaker.

I’m not sure how practical it would be for the uk to do something similar, but there were a lot of empty hotels at Manchester Airport when I left in March, so it shouldn’t be impossible.

I'm sure the UK could do similar on a similar scale to what is done in Aus but the worry is (well mine is) the scheme will get subcontracted to the likes of G4S and also possibly one of the more notorious hotel chains..

The other issue to my mind is whether doing it on the same scale as Aus (? a few thousand a week across the whole nation?) is actually feasible for the UK for any length of time.....without widespread exemptions, and then....etc etc...

Interesting. "now a one week closure of the airport (except freight, funerals, relocation, etc) as a circuit breaker."

Is a circuit breaker relevant if the aim is to prevent a vaccine-resistant mutation from arriving? Then I am not sure what the answer is - genome sequencing of every positive test, and reimpose the supervised quarantine restrictions/ban on entry as soon as you come across a mutation that has been caught by a vaccinated person who hasn't travelled outside the country in the past 14 or even 21 days?

If this government had followed the model of Australia and NZ all those months ago, as well as building a usable Test and Trace system, we would be living relatively normal lives like they are doing. As for those that argue that NZ and Oz aren't comparable, have a look at nations like Vietnam, South Korea et al who have managed the virus successfully. However don't forget Oz and NZ have densely populated urban areas as well!

@Delatron*,*@MarshaBradyo

Thank you. It’s infuriating! The vast majority are doing as we’re told (and suffering greatly for it) Our government are accountable for the handling of the pandemic (a government I didn’t vote for)...so I’m really not up for being made to feel responsible for my own misery and that of so many others!

Saying all that, I’m luckier than a great many others so I will be ok; just a wobbly day for me.

the scheme will get subcontracted to the likes of G4S

A valid concern, notimagain, given past government performance.

I’m not sure it could be done on the same scale unless the uk limits the number of people coming in and out of the country which is harder if you don’t limit flights and ships and close the channel tunnel. Logistically difficult.
Who would be exempt, do you think? No one here is, unless you’re Danni Minogue or Nicole Kidman. We have the Australian Open tennis teams here at the moment and even they’re not exempt, however hard some of them stamp their feet.