I cant see schools going back at Easter

[ssd]

If the new variant is more deadly

I really dont think they'll open before summer

The government need to get a plan if action now

I dont think shops etc will open up either, we need much more people vaccinated twice to see if the vaccines help us

Shit.

Definitely need a better plan - they are giving out free laptops, someone in DN class got one and took it home to which his mother immediately said she needed it to work on as hers didnt work well and took it off them! Better plan needed. But not by putting teachers at risk!

@happylittlechick

I genuinely think primary schools will open in February. Still locked down though. Then secondary schools at Easter and restrictions easing. Back into semi normal life by September.

I would change the primary schools to first week in March but you could be spot on with the rest.

Staff vaccinated and masks for older children will have to be considered though. If we want them to not be isolating on and off all spring.

There is no big conspiracy here from the government re: terrifying people to scare them into further compliance and prepare prepare for more restrictions. None of this means it will "definitely" be summer or anything else. It just means they are reporting the facts they have at the time. The data and knowledge is evolving constantly. That's why you really can't be definite about anything.

@Ilovegreentomatoes

I agree.Think remote learning will be for most of the year.

I agree with that but we can't be sure, we have to take things one step at a time.

I am no fan of this government but I do think in some situations they simply can't win. Err on the side of caution and they get accused of whipping up hysteria to scare people into compliance. Say nothing and relax restrictions they get accused of costing lives by not taking it seriously enough.

The UK has a population of 66.7 million

Adult population is 55.2m

But of course you have to aim off a bit for resource required for second jabs

@ChimaeraEgg

There is no big conspiracy here from the government re: terrifying people to scare them into further compliance and prepare prepare for more restrictions. None of this means it will "definitely" be summer or anything else. It just means they are reporting the facts they have at the time. The data and knowledge is evolving constantly. That's why you really can't be definite about anything.

No it’s not to prepare for further restrictions but messaging for this has relied heavily on behavioural science. Esp as we don’t do much enforcement.

Schools out until summer. The PM gave us all a big hint about what is to come in tonight’s address about the higher lethality of the UK strain.

That's how you chose to interrupt it.
Don't come on here and spout this like it's fact.
You know nothing more than anyone else.
Sick of this kind of thing on here.

@Thewiseoneincognito

Schools out until summer. The PM gave us all a big hint about what is to come in tonight’s address about the higher lethality of the UK strain.

Not really

No it’s not to prepare for further restrictions but messaging for this has relied heavily on behavioural science

I don't agree that the messaging from the government has. If you listen to the briefings they are very measured. It is the media who then translate them into misleading soundbites, but the public are also responsible for reading a headline only and basing their opinions on that!

Schools out until summer. The PM gave us all a big hint about what is to come in tonight’s address about the higher lethality of the UK strain

And BTW that ^ is scaremongering.

@ChimaeraEgg

I am no fan of this government but I do think in some situations they simply can't win. Err on the side of caution and they get accused of whipping up hysteria to scare people into compliance. Say nothing and relax restrictions they get accused of costing lives by not taking it seriously enough.

I’ve come out of years of self imposed lurkerdom to say that Chimaera has spoken the most sense of any COVID thread I’ve read on Mumsnet, hands down.

@ChimaeraEgg

No it’s not to prepare for further restrictions but messaging for this has relied heavily on behavioural science

I don't agree that the messaging from the government has. If you listen to the briefings they are very measured. It is the media who then translate them into misleading soundbites, but the public are also responsible for reading a headline only and basing their opinions on that!

No i reckon even briefing goes through behavioural scientists, for sure.

The media thrive on provocation and sales which is different to above.

I not i

The U.K. response is pretty well known for using behavioural science in all this

They don’t leave this the hysteria of the media

It is very considered

I remember during last march, during first lockdown everyone swore that schools wouldn't be back until january 2021.

I honestly don't know if the government will keep schools shut for months and months for a strain that studies suggest causes a 0.3 - 0.4% higher mortality. Plus we are only in January. Who knows what things will look like after Easter break once more people have been vaccinated.

@DfEisashambles

As they’ve just said - If 1000 60 year old men got covid, ten of those would likely die. With the new variant it would be 13/14 so that has complicated matters a bit. If it’s true the vaccines work on the new variants there’s still a lot of hope.

sorry if this has already been clarified if 1000 60 year old men got covid ten of those would likely die (1%) new varient means 13 or 14 out of 1000 (so 1.3-1.4%) or 13 out of 14??

im thinking (hoping!) its the 1.3-1.4%?

@ChimaeraEgg

These spreads speculating when schools open is just so tedious. What is the actual point. I don't know, you don't know, the scientists don't know, Boris doesn't know. Frankly they can't know.

Hear hear!

It won’t be the summer. Why would they open schools up in June for just a few weeks before the summer school holidays? It doesn’t make sense. I reckon if they don’t reopen after Easter, then it will be the next school year - in September, before schools reopen.

There is no way schools will be closed until summer. They are a priority and they should be.

I do think that he was warning of nothing much is changing this side of Easter. Vaccine isn’t the answer, don’t want to rush, more people in hospital, very serious. Yadda, Yadda.

I would be shocked if they were not back after Easter. I would happily bet a wedge of my savings that it won’t be after half term.

I think lower primary will go back sooner and then upper primary, probably on a rota so only half a class in at a time. I think that’s doable from Easter at the latest.
Secondary might take longer, which sucks for them but has less immediate impact on people’s ability to work.

blablablah

That's very kind, thank you!

Since schools will be back first. If that’s Sept there won’t be much left of many businesses.

FWIW, my daughter's school emailed today to say they are expecting to return after Feb half term (England, independent school).

They are obviously planning for all eventualities, but a Feb return isn't off the cards yet (thank God).

And I would rather they review month by month. I find it easier to cope if they say lockdown will be reviewed in a month, rather than them say we will be in lockdown until September for example. I think if they told us now that we would be in lockdown until the Autumn, I’d feel beyond anxious and depressed.

At the rate we are vaccinating more than 20 million people will have been vaccinated by March. That makes reopening most things at Easter entirely plausible as far as I can see.