I cant see schools going back at Easter

[ssd]

If the new variant is more deadly

I really dont think they'll open before summer

The government need to get a plan if action now

I dont think shops etc will open up either, we need much more people vaccinated twice to see if the vaccines help us

Shit.

@Oblomov20
It was just said that it can’t even be considered (lockdown ending) until I infection rates lower and although they’re coming down, they’re still very high.

Hence people worried about schools not going back until Easter.

Sorry I should clarify when it said it should not have got to the point that schools closed, I meant now. They definitely needed to close in Spring.

@BubblyBarbara

If they don’t open till after Easter in mid April, they need to scrap holidays and cram two terms in before summer. It’s about 14 weeks.

Yes because the children will really learn because obviously they are machines who don’t need down time.

There is absolutely no point reopening schools until cases come down very significantly.

@Oblomov20

I don't want to believe this. Was the news very bleak tonight? Why not after Easter, now?

Easter still possible after tonight not sure that’s changed

Just people reacting to virulent information

I think Easter is realistic and actually probably correct - I think after half term with the current situation is too optimistic and too soon.

10 weeks more sounds about right with a further 2 weeks on Easter.

After that though if we havent gotten our act together to vaccinate (and based on media reports the SA strain is around 50% less effective so in line with the flu so perfectly manageable) and the death rate though more is according to Patrick Vallance taking it from 0.1% in a 60 year old to 0.13%. Neither imply we need a 9 month lockdown.

The problem is we seem to be a rudderless ship losing sight of what we actually want to achieve from any of this. I find Hancock, Williamson and Gove to be weak and unsure. Johnson incapable and Patel manages to speak without saying anything. We need a plan and a leader to implement it. The fact that they wont even suggest a plan is a problem

@StormcloakNord why come on the thread then you must of seen the heading?
Just avoid this one and fuck off yourself.

@CountessFrog

A request please.

If you are going to post doom mongering shite, please use the correct words.

You must use ‘I’m afraid’ and ‘nope’ and ‘unfortunately.’

And please refer to your friend who is a hospital
Cleaner and swears blind that ITU is full of children.

I just can’t take you all seriously. At least using the right terminology reminds me of your superior knowledge and foresight. It’s amazing that you haven’t been consulted by SAGE yet. Why is that, exactly?

@EmmanuelleMakro

I’m still hoping for after Feb half-term - I am a secondary teacher and children’s mental health is suffering.

This upsets me x

Closed until September? That's not happening😂 vaccines being rolled out now.
Honestly if anyone believes this I despair.

@StormcloakNord

Please calm down. As well as bad news today’s announcement still offers hope. It sounds like you need to come off MN for a bit.

I think they'll still be going back.

Yes, it's more deadly but it's gone from 1% to 1.3%

I'm not sure that I can get that worked up about it TBH.

The news actually wasn't very bleak, people are choosing to interpret it that way.

Easter seems possible, or maybe before for primary schools.

I definitely don't think that Easter is out of the question at all.

February I don't personally think is possible but this is just my opinion.

@ChimaeraEgg

I definitely don't think that Easter is out of the question at all.

February I don't personally think is possible but this is just my opinion.

I agree. And Easter to start coming out of lockdown is what has been leaked by 'Govt sources' to journos.

They repeated tonight restrictions don’t need to change yet we just need to comply. We’re getting some strong compliance info coming our way. It’s working no doubt but it’s good at suppression

I genuinely think primary schools will open in February. Still locked down though. Then secondary schools at Easter and restrictions easing. Back into semi normal life by September.

If all things remain the same (ie no new detrimental data on variants being vaccine resistant or similar) I do believe schools will be back after the Easter holidays.

Firstly, this week I pulled all the hospital admissions data since the start of the pandemic for every region of the UK.

Under 18s are rarely admitted to hospital (ie rarely become very ill). You can see the age of admissions for any region in the Uk here: www.covidmessenger.com/hospital-admissions/

I actually pulled this data because I wanted to know the risk of children getting very ill as opposed to the risk of them dying.

No one wants their child to die (obviously) but sometimes I find the media focuses on the death statistics and ignores the fact that parents actually also don't want their child to get very ill with covid in the first place as the long term consequences are unknown at this stage.

And hospital admissions seemed like a good gauge for whether someone becomes ill.

I am glad to say that in general there is an extremely low incidence under 18s being admitted to hospital in every region of the UK which you can see in the tables under the charts on www.covidmessenger.com/hospital-admissions/.

Secondly, let's just do a quick calculation.

Yesterday, we vaccinated 400K people with the first dose.

Let's be relatively pessimistic and assume we never exceed 400K/day (which I have no doubt we will, and very soon). But let's be pessimistic and stick with 400K/day receiving the first dose. And let's assume vaccination centres remain open 7 days a week (which I think is realistic).

In 12 weeks (approx when schools should reopen after Easter hols), we would have vaccinated:
400 first vaccines per day x 7 days per week x 12 weeks = 33.6 million

33.6 million people will have received the first vaccine.

The UK has a population of 66.7 million.

So half the population will have received a first vaccine.

Should all things remain the same, I really do think schools will be back after Easter.

Having the most vulnerable half of the population vaccinated with the first dose will completely change the metrics for govt. decisions.

I think schools will be back around the end of March. Transmission fell a lot in November when schools remained open, I think they will be prioritised over the opening of other sectors.

I feel the way we are recording deaths now surely has to have an effect of the mortality rate in comparison to March and April last year surely? The way we are recording deaths is different to when we were in the peak last April. 25% of the deaths on the highest recorded day were from more then three days previous. We know there have been deaths in the figures recently from up to SIX months ago. How many of those 25% are from late last 2020, those types of deaths wouldn't have been recorded back in March and April so ths figure is going to be slightly higher anyway. We were also told to expect a rise in deaths from two weeks after the spike in cases.

Our cases have fallen buy a lot over the last three weeks, highest peak of just over 68,000 three weeks ago and the average of this week is just over 38,000. Scaremongering really doesn't help anyone. Our primary school closed one bubble from September to December my children were in for the full term, like many other primaries in the area. The high schools seemed to have more closures. I really hope schools can go back as soon as possible.

Schools out until summer. The PM gave us all a big hint about what is to come in tonight’s address about the higher lethality of the UK strain.

Not to sound callous but it is actually hospitalisations that are key here rather than deaths

And those are currently higher than March/April.

@Thewiseoneincognito

They’re just erring on the side of caution until more data comes through about vaccines being effective in newer strains. It doesn’t mean they’re saying summer.