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I cant see schools going back at Easter

321 replies

ssd · 22/01/2021 17:45

If the new variant is more deadly

I really dont think they'll open before summer

The government need to get a plan if action now

I dont think shops etc will open up either, we need much more people vaccinated twice to see if the vaccines help us

Shit.

OP posts:
Wherediditgo · 23/01/2021 09:49

I don’t get this thinking.

Schools went back last year after lockdown in September... and we weren’t vaccinating people then Confused

fluffyugg · 23/01/2021 09:55

I think it's further strains that is the concern now, more opportunities for the virus to mutate and evade the vaccine. By not letting people mix it reduces the chance for mutations.

bumbleymummy · 23/01/2021 10:09

[quote Thewiseoneincognito]@Didyousaynutella or

3000 for every 1 million
30000 for every 10 million
300000 for every 100 million

It’s a lot when you play with those numbers on a global scale. Factor in further mutations and it becomes a bit of a potential dangerous mess[/quote]
Iirc they were specifically talking about the increased risk for men in their 60s as an example. So it’s not an increase of 3 in 1000 for the population as a whole.

They also said that they need more data to confirm this. Lots of mays and mights.

Of course people have jumped on the doom and gloom angle though. Hmm

bumbleymummy · 23/01/2021 10:12

Of note: NERVTAG said that the absolute risk of death per infection remains low.

SilverGlitterBaubles · 23/01/2021 10:39

@velveteenrabbittales

There has been a marked change in Boris and the scientists. Something has changed (not sure what yet) but all the optimism and confidence is gone. I don't have a good feeling about what's brewing....
For Boris Johnson I suspect that he has come to realise that he cannot actually deal with this crisis with bluff and bluster and talk of world beating flag waving stuff. For the scientists who advised Johnson to impose restrictions much earlier I guess anger and a weary frustration that their advice was not taken. 'Boris Saves Christmas' has resulted in cases rising and deaths but the narrative is very much trying to steer away from this. Instead it's oh no look over there it's the new strains, the party goers, the workers, the selfish people going for walks, people getting take away coffees. It's absolutely shameful.
GrumblyMumblyisnotJumbly · 23/01/2021 12:16

@OverTheRubicon Otherwise you'll end up with a healthy female 25 year old teacher, with a tiny risk of severe illness, being vaccinated ahead of a 52 year old bame and overweight delivery driver. That doesn't seem like fairness, nor is it likely to be medically the best outcome.

This will have been the case (for a minority) of NHS staff too, some wfh, as quite rightly the whole sector has been prioritised.

In most public facing roles employers /employees should be able to use preventive measures e.g masks / screens / distancing. Schools have NONE of these (other than mask wearing in secondary corridors) yet schools are supposedly a priority sector for the Government to reopen. As they are not allowed by the DfE to implement preventive measures that other sectors can, and the rate of infection has been proven to be higher in the population that they teach, surely they should be prioritised for vaccination?

Do you have a socially isolated child struggling to home school?

We all need schools to reopen, each and every time a primary school teacher falls ill with Covid that is 30 families affected by having to self isolate. If the teacher becomes more ill they are less likely to be able to continue to wfh and teach their isolated class/es.

The police are another public facing sector where they have close physical proximity to people not wearing masks. Another essential service- again surely they should be prioritised for vaccines before the general public?

You could flip your example round and ask why my in-laws in their 60s, or my aunt & uncle in their 50s, who are retired and comfortably able to stay at home should be a higher or equal priority over my DCs teachers, some also in their 50s who teach 5 classes x 30 children a day, with NO protective measures?

If the Government want schools to open and remain open they need to do something to protect the staff.

blahblahmeh · 23/01/2021 12:19

@Waxonwaxoff0

People cannot work and home school their children at the same time. Long term remote schooling isn't feasible. I don't think it will happen.
I agree.
Thewiseoneincognito · 23/01/2021 12:22

@bumbleymummy those figures still stand even if only for the male over 60 population. If we’re not bothered about that group then we can just ignore or gloss over those stats I suppose? After all what’s a few thousand dads and grandads 🤯

OverTheRubicon · 23/01/2021 12:54

[quote GrumblyMumblyisnotJumbly]**@OverTheRubicon* Otherwise you'll end up with a healthy female 25 year old teacher, with a tiny risk of severe illness, being vaccinated ahead of a 52 year old bame and overweight delivery driver. That doesn't seem like fairness, nor is it likely to be medically the best outcome.*

This will have been the case (for a minority) of NHS staff too, some wfh, as quite rightly the whole sector has been prioritised.

In most public facing roles employers /employees should be able to use preventive measures e.g masks / screens / distancing. Schools have NONE of these (other than mask wearing in secondary corridors) yet schools are supposedly a priority sector for the Government to reopen. As they are not allowed by the DfE to implement preventive measures that other sectors can, and the rate of infection has been proven to be higher in the population that they teach, surely they should be prioritised for vaccination?

Do you have a socially isolated child struggling to home school?

We all need schools to reopen, each and every time a primary school teacher falls ill with Covid that is 30 families affected by having to self isolate. If the teacher becomes more ill they are less likely to be able to continue to wfh and teach their isolated class/es.

The police are another public facing sector where they have close physical proximity to people not wearing masks. Another essential service- again surely they should be prioritised for vaccines before the general public?

You could flip your example round and ask why my in-laws in their 60s, or my aunt & uncle in their 50s, who are retired and comfortably able to stay at home should be a higher or equal priority over my DCs teachers, some also in their 50s who teach 5 classes x 30 children a day, with NO protective measures?

If the Government want schools to open and remain open they need to do something to protect the staff.[/quote]
I have 2 socially isolated young primary age children home schooling, a toddler home and I lost my job thanks to covid cuts, so I am very invested in getting schools back. And fully agree that vulnerable teachers (even 50+) should be vaccinated before schools return. What I'm saying is that I don't think that it is necessarily fair to have to have every teacher, even those at very low risk, vaccinated before return can be considered, given that vaccination can take some time and that teachers are not alone in being key workers in more exposed jobs - I'd prefer to see whether distancing can be increased in parallel (e.g. more protection allowed, masks for older children or.even 50/50 schooling would still be an improvement).

The older people being vaccinated are because they are so much more likely to end up.in hospital, or dead, if they do get ill - it is to prevent.deaths and to reduce the strain on the NHS, not because 60 year olds have the right to more.protection. Similarly, WFH NHS workers are in many cases still required for the functioning of our health system and with services so stretched, it's again a big.risk if many are ill.

DonnaDonna01 · 23/01/2021 12:58

@Thewiseoneincognitoi I don’t think @bumbleymummy is trying to ignore or gloss over the stats but the findings have to be understood correctly. The model was based on over 60 males that contract the virus, not all age groups or females and it applies to people who contract the virus not the whole population. You may know this but others reading the thread often pick up these posts incorrectly because of the way they are written. None of this is good news, I don’t think anyone would argue about that.

bumbleymummy · 23/01/2021 14:04

[quote Thewiseoneincognito]@bumbleymummy those figures still stand even if only for the male over 60 population. If we’re not bothered about that group then we can just ignore or gloss over those stats I suppose? After all what’s a few thousand dads and grandads 🤯[/quote]
Oh stop.

Surely you know by now that different age groups have different risk? You can’t extrapolate entire population risk from one age group.

The scientists themselves have said that they need more data to draw any firm conclusions and some of them were surprised that Johnson said anything about it at all.

GrumblyMumblyisnotJumbly · 23/01/2021 16:45

@OverTheRubicon What I'm saying is that I don't think that it is necessarily fair to have to have every teacher, even those at very low risk, vaccinated before return can be considered, given that vaccination can take some time and that teachers are not alone in being key workers in more exposed jobs - I'd prefer to see whether distancing can be increased in parallel (e.g. more protection allowed, masks for older children or.even 50/50 schooling would still be an improvement)

I can’t think of any other key worker role with an expectation that you would sit in a room without PPE/mask, without distancing or a protective screen everyday with 150 people other than secondary teachers (5 classes x 30). Can you?

I don’t disagree that vaccination of staff is not the only way to make schools open and run more safely. But the Government have been unwilling to introduce any of the other measures mentioned. The idea of testing (not lateral flow) all secondary staff and pupils before they returned was sound. I think this would also be sensible for primary school staff and pupils. The Government need to tell us not only that schools will reopen with 2 weeks notice but what measures will be introduced to help them remain open? And not just by allowing a few year groups in, they need a strategy so that all pupils can access some onsite education. Simply saying schools are safe does not make them so.

NoGoodOptions · 23/01/2021 22:16

Two KS1 children (just gone 5, and 7), two parents wfh full time. Everyday I pray that they'll reopen the schools. I'm filled with unfocused rage that these young people are left to languish.

GrumblyMumblyisnotJumbly · 23/01/2021 23:09

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9179961/Headteachers-send-Boris-Johnson-plan-vaccinate-one-million-staff-half-term.html

Ok it’s not an instant fix but this would be a massive step towards schools re-opening

LickEmbysmiling · 23/01/2021 23:12

Yes so many things, all staff tested non LFT I had not even heard of that idea!
Why not! People can't lie either... It's sent on forms (well they could fiddle with it but hassle)

Get all staff and students tested as well as other factors... Staff vaccinations.... But it will take 3 weeks for vaccination to work...

BungleandGeorge · 23/01/2021 23:43

Who is going to be vaccinating in these school hubs and where is the vaccine coming from? Pretty much every member of nhs staff is either looking after the sick or already working in a planned vaccination hub. Vaccinating teachers isn’t going to open schools at the present time. If they were talking about Easter after the most vulnerable and when infection rate has fallen it would be credible. Although not in schools as there are already vaccination centres set up across the country. Why would you set more up for the sake of it?

Itisasecret · 24/01/2021 00:02

@NoGoodOptions

Two KS1 children (just gone 5, and 7), two parents wfh full time. Everyday I pray that they'll reopen the schools. I'm filled with unfocused rage that these young people are left to languish.
It’s a few renegade heads. No 10 have already responded and said no. Vaccinating teachers is great but it won’t stop community spread, so schools will not open faster.

Oh and the times are saying Gav is making an announcement this week to manage parents expectations. They aren’t going back in February.

Itisasecret · 24/01/2021 00:03

That was supposed to quote grumbly and the Daily Mail click bait!

Itisasecret · 24/01/2021 00:04

@GrumblyMumblyisnotJumbly

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9179961/Headteachers-send-Boris-Johnson-plan-vaccinate-one-million-staff-half-term.html

Ok it’s not an instant fix but this would be a massive step towards schools re-opening

I’ll try again!

It’s a few renegade heads. No 10 have already responded and said no. Vaccinating teachers is great but it won’t stop community spread, so schools will not open faster.

Oh and the times are saying Gav is making an announcement this week to manage parents expectations. They aren’t going back in February.

BungleandGeorge · 24/01/2021 00:10

It’s also presuming that teachers/ support staff actually want a vaccination which may well not be the case for those at very low risk.

Itisasecret · 24/01/2021 00:12

@BungleandGeorge

It’s also presuming that teachers/ support staff actually want a vaccination which may well not be the case for those at very low risk.
It’s also forgetting the actual issue, the children spreading it in the community.
Dustyboots · 24/01/2021 00:23

It’s also presuming that teachers/ support staff actually want a vaccination which may well not be the case for those at very low risk.

It's fine if some don't want the vaccine. But for those that feel terrified of catching Covid (for the first, second or third time) the vaccine must be available.

For those who refuse it - they go in to work at their own risk (unless they cannot be vaccinated for health reasons)

Dustyboots · 24/01/2021 00:26

It’s also forgetting the actual issue, the children spreading it in the community.

This is true too. But once teachers are safe/vaccinated - parents can choose whether to risk sending their kids back into school. Is that a possibility?

Yes - it will increase community spread of the virus - but we cannot keep kids off forever, or stay locked down forever. At some point we've just got to get on with it.

Itisasecret · 24/01/2021 00:29

@Dustyboots

It’s also forgetting the actual issue, the children spreading it in the community.

This is true too. But once teachers are safe/vaccinated - parents can choose whether to risk sending their kids back into school. Is that a possibility?

Yes - it will increase community spread of the virus - but we cannot keep kids off forever, or stay locked down forever. At some point we've just got to get on with it.

No, because everyone’s personal risk could overwhelm the NHS. Like it is now after it ran riot through schools. That’s not an option, clearly. It can also lead to vaccine resistant mutations. Which is what CW said on the Friday presser.
Dustyboots · 24/01/2021 00:33

Ok. I see.

But this is likely to go on for a long time then, isn't it?

If the current variant is so contagious and vaccines won't be rolled out to everyone for a long time - even then will many have had both doses?

How long can the government afford to pay furlough, keep us locked down, close off the economy and have schools shut?

I see what you are saying @Itisasecret - but practically there has to be another plan, doesn't there?

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