Why do people think we'll need restrictions after all over 18s have been vaccinated?

[muminthesummer]

I keep reading on here but also heard in mentioned on the news, about restrictions will potentially still be needed into next year. Considering the plan is to vaccinate all over 18s by autumn this confuses me. Could someone please explain.

Not everyone will have the vaccine and we don't yet know exactly how effective the vaccine will be in preventing transmission

Of course we won’t. Some people just like to spread doom. Restrictions will be relaxed once the vulnerable have been vaccinated, long before every adult is offered one. The only time we will need further restrictions is if there is a resurgence next winter, if the NHS is looking to be overwhelmed, but now there are more vaccines approved and all over 18s will be offered one by autumn that is less likely to happen. Maybe limits in gatherings but not harsh ones like now.

It makes no sense. I’m hoping this do

Boris is a useless article but the one thing you can say for him is that I think he’ll lift restrictions as soon as he possibly can, in fact probably too early.

I did a calculator and it suggested I was looking at getting my second vaccine in October to December so... it's going to be a while to get everyone. It was previously January 2022 so that's an improvement.

Sorry posted too soon - I hope this doesn’t come to pass.

Isn’t there a stat that 40% of people intend to refuse the vaccine? That is too many for there to be heard immunity.

Plus if it mutates the vulnerable may need to be vaccinated every year like with the flu.

Well, there will not be a point when all over 18s are vaccinated because a few cannot have the vaccine and many more will refuse it. And it will be years and years before all of the developing world will be vaccinated, meaning that even if we can eliminate the virus within our borders, it will always be in danger of getting back in.

Personally, however, I will be dropping restrictions progressively as more and more people get vaccinated. I'm not interested in protecting people who won't get the vaccine, and while I do feel very sorry for those who are immune compromised etc. they are also at risk of chickenpox, flu, noro and a million other things. At some point we have to get back to normal. We should push ahead with funding heavy-duty vaccination drives in developing countries, though, absolutely.

That said, a mad friend-of-a-friend on my feed was saying that she was personally going to adopt a "new normal" going forward because many non-white people were supposedly refusing to have the vaccine (she is a HCP in America, not here) and she wants to protect them/show solidarity etc. OK, love, you stay inside forever then!

I imagine there may need to be restrictions for people who haven't been vaccinated and aren't exempt e.g. not to attend certain places until the virus is at much lower levels. That would probably only apply if there's a low vaccination take-up (below 70/80% or wherever looks like the herd immunity threshold) as we've seen just 5-10% infected in each wave has been enough to cause severe NHS issues.

Bear in mind that takeup rates for the vaccine may increase year by year, as people watch the news and see that those who have had the vax are not growing extra heads. I mean, the most committed anti vax conspiracy theorists will never change their minds, but there are a lot of on-the-fence people who are just watching to see what happens with the first lot of people having the vaccine first.

I expect that in September there will be an announcement along the lines of: we currently have XX% of the adult population vaccinated, we need to get it to YY% by the end of November or we will have to have restrictions in place for December to February" in order to get the compliance rate up.

Everyone will have been offered a vaccine by then but uptake won't be 100%.

Because this coronavirus is not going to go away, ever. Every winter there is likely to be a resurgence of cases and potential "winter crisis" in our hospitals.

It's likely that all people over 60 will need annual vaccination and, like the flu, Covid will nonetheless still result in serious illness and deaths every year.

Personally, I think it makes good sense to retain the requirements for wearing a mask when shopping, particularly in winter when people have coughs, colds etc . It would help to slow the spread of all airborne viruses.

I can also envisage that travel to other countries will require a vaccination certificate or a certificate of medical exemption and a negative test result.

@Sarahandduck18 - it's nothing like 40% in the UK, that's the French stats (hopefully that will change in coming months). UK overall is 76% wanting the vaccine, with evidence that many of those less likely to take the vaccine are open to being persuaded by a doctor. Once it's been given to the majority of the population, it should also naturally appear safer to those who are concerned with obvious evidence of reducing transmission and hospitalisation: www.rsph.org.uk/about-us/news/new-poll-finds-bame-groups-less-likely-to-want-covid-vaccine.html. Community leaders and others may also get involved.

I've heard in the last week about 2 unconnected people who had said they wouldn't take the vaccine, yet once invited they've booked appointments to go and have it. I've also heard about a full care home agreeing to be vaccinated. So I'm starting to think take-up may be higher than expected.

Its not about stopping people getting it.
It's about making sure the NHS can treat everyone for covid19 and non covid19 conditions.
Once the people most likely need to hospital treatment have been vaccinated you really think govt will pritioirse younger people not getting it over the economy?

@Kokeshi123

Well, there will not be a point when all over 18s are vaccinated because a few cannot have the vaccine and many more will refuse it. And it will be years and years before all of the developing world will be vaccinated, meaning that even if we can eliminate the virus within our borders, it will always be in danger of getting back in.

Personally, however, I will be dropping restrictions progressively as more and more people get vaccinated. I'm not interested in protecting people who won't get the vaccine, and while I do feel very sorry for those who are immune compromised etc. they are also at risk of chickenpox, flu, noro and a million other things. At some point we have to get back to normal. We should push ahead with funding heavy-duty vaccination drives in developing countries, though, absolutely.

That said, a mad friend-of-a-friend on my feed was saying that she was personally going to adopt a "new normal" going forward because many non-white people were supposedly refusing to have the vaccine (she is a HCP in America, not here) and she wants to protect them/show solidarity etc. OK, love, you stay inside forever then!

Yes this is how I feel too. I’ll be dropping restrictions once the vulnerable are vaccinated.

Restrictions may be light touch eg more recommendations for the clinically vulnerable or wearing masks when you have a cold (eg like in the Far East).

The mention of continuing restrictions is to do with at the moment there is no evidence to say the vaccine prevents you from passing it on.

The only thing that can be said for certain afaik is that if you get CV you are either symptomless or it’s mild. And protection lasts at least 6/7 months.

Every year many thousands unfortunately die from the flu. This will also now be the case for Covid. So if it looks like it's going to be a 'bad' flu or Covid winter, inorder that the NHS does not become overwhelmed, there may be restrictions such as- where a mask in a crowed place, stay at home if you are ill, don't hug elderly or venerable. I presume these would be voluntary though with a strong message of 'save the NHS'.

IN MY OPINION
Maybe we need things in place so that every flu season the vulnerable are safe and the NhS isn’t over whelmed. I do like the way people aren’t up my area in shop queues.
I just hope the government learn from this

I love the idea of not hugging the venerable...
Great autocorrect.

@Catty1720

IN MY OPINION Maybe we need things in place so that every flu season the vulnerable are safe and the NhS isn’t over whelmed. I do like the way people aren’t up my area in shop queues. I just hope the government learn from this

what would you suggest is put in place? There’s no way I’m sticking to actual restrictions every flu season, though I’m open to sensible suggestions.

Chris Whitty seems to say we may keep some measures in place such as masks on public transport during the winter months - sounds entirely sensible (and many Asian countries have been doing this for years anyway).

We're not going to be in lockdown forever but the scientists also don't yet know how long the vaccine will offer protection and if the virus mutates again... it could be like flu in that sense, a new variant comes around every year and at least some people will need to be vaccinated annually.

I'm expecting to be asked to wear a mask next winter. This year there has been virtually no flu epidemic and less other respiratory disease. Repeating that next winter would protect children, who are most at risk from such diseases, and allow the NHS to start on the backlog of other treatment.

I hate masks, I'll be wearing one next winter.

@Mousehole10 nothing crazy just maybe things like in care homes if you have a cold wear a mask or don’t go and I think better sick pay support so if you were sick instead of going in and spreading germs because you can’t afford to lose pay you stay home.
BUT all that said it’s never that easy or simple.