Why do people think we'll need restrictions after all over 18s have been vaccinated?

[muminthesummer]

I keep reading on here but also heard in mentioned on the news, about restrictions will potentially still be needed into next year. Considering the plan is to vaccinate all over 18s by autumn this confuses me. Could someone please explain.

We also don’t know how long a vaccine provides immunity for... if it’s just under a year then the most vulnerable will lose immunity in the winter when it gets a natural boost so some caution would be sensible.

I think they will find it very hard to get everyone to comply with restrictions in future if the only people at risk are those who have chosen not to be vaccinated. On a personal level if everyone vulnerable has been vaccinated and everyone has been offered the vaccine if levels rise and people don’t wish to be vaccinated that’s their choice and risk to take not my job to mitigate that.

@FourTeaFallOut

We have the highest levels of vaccine confidence in Europe but I wouldn't be surprised if there are pockets of refusers in the country. When I read the comments section of our local paper it feels like I'm in the anti-vax capital.

Yes, A GP friend of mine has recently moved to a practice in 'trendy' area and saw his first case of mumps last year (we qualified over a decade ago), according to his colleagues it isn't particularly unusual in the practice due to the high numbers of ani-vaxxers in the local area. Makes me very sad. I'm a community geriatrician outside of COVID and see large numbers of older people with long term disabilities form vaccine preventable illnesses (because the vaccine wasn't available to them when they were young). People quickly forget.

Not everyone will get the vaccine
Not everyone CAN get the vaccine
The vaccine is not 100% effective
There is no evidence yet that it stops transmission - the thought is it may simply lessen the severity of symptoms.

Given all of the above, there would still be a high chance of many people becoming unwell and dying, even if everyone had been vaccinated.

That's why the vaccine alone isn't going to get us out of this.

@LindaEllen

Not everyone will get the vaccine Not everyone CAN get the vaccine The vaccine is not 100% effective There is no evidence yet that it stops transmission - the thought is it may simply lessen the severity of symptoms.

Given all of the above, there would still be a high chance of many people becoming unwell and dying, even if everyone had been vaccinated.

That's why the vaccine alone isn't going to get us out of this.

Yep and all business go to shit /parents can't afford to feed kids etc etc people not complying now

I knew of 3 people who said would not get vaccine 2 nhs front line ... both now had covid it seen the death and now having the vaccine and one of my friends now wants it

@LindaEllen

Not everyone will get the vaccine Not everyone CAN get the vaccine The vaccine is not 100% effective There is no evidence yet that it stops transmission - the thought is it may simply lessen the severity of symptoms.

Given all of the above, there would still be a high chance of many people becoming unwell and dying, even if everyone had been vaccinated.

That's why the vaccine alone isn't going to get us out of this.

People become unwell and die every single day. We can't shut down the economy and society indefinitely simply because "there would still be a high chance of many people becoming unwell and dying".

I started a thread recently about the vaccine not stopping you getting the virus. See here www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4120576-Vaccine-doesn-t-stop-you-getting-covid
They said on the news that people will still need to stick to the restrictions. It stops you being seriously ill if you do get it and they don’t know if it stops you passing it on

Masks in hospitals should stay long-term. And I'll wear one in future if I have a cold and have to go out. Also, putting the lid down on the loo before flushing etc!

No way am I restricting travel, restaurants, bars etc long term.

@Dodie66 in the short term yes. Once the majority of the population is vaccinated and we are safe from serious illness it wont matter if it is still transmitted. Lots of viruses circulate on the population and sometimes people die from them. We are not trying to create a system where no-one ever catches coronavirus 19 again.

@IcedPurple I always know you will talk sense

@Kokeshi123

Masks in hospitals should stay long-term. And I'll wear one in future if I have a cold and have to go out. Also, putting the lid down on the loo before flushing etc!

No way am I restricting travel, restaurants, bars etc long term.

And washing your hands I have seen plenty go to the toilet and not do oh gross !

@CaughtInTheCovid

I think they will find it very hard to get everyone to comply with restrictions in future if the only people at risk are those who have chosen not to be vaccinated. On a personal level if everyone vulnerable has been vaccinated and everyone has been offered the vaccine if levels rise and people don’t wish to be vaccinated that’s their choice and risk to take not my job to mitigate that.

I completely agree. I am happy (not the right word, but you know what I mean) with some sort of restrictions until everyone has been offered the vaccine - in fact, I'd prefer to wait until this happens before they ease things completely, otherwise the risk just passes to people in their 40s, 30s and 20s. And whilst the risk for these age groups is lower, it's not zero. And I think I'm right in thinking that the risk of long covid is higher in younger groups?

Anyway, once everyone has been offered the vaccine I sort of think that if some folk refuse then that's there problem, and it's not the job of the rest of us to protect those people.

However, what about those who don't have the vaccine because they just can't? How do we protect them?

their problem not their!
Doh

Oh bloody hell. Not there, I mean.

@mrsknottschicken i agree I’m not willing to protect people who choose not to have the vaccine. As for people who can’t have it, it’s harsh but we can’t keep restrictions just for them, however awful it is. It’s exactly the same for people who can’t have other injections, like the flu jab. There will always be some people at risk from illnesses. Once the NHS isn’t at risk from being overwhelmed there is no justification for keeping restrictions and so there won’t be any.

in fact, I'd prefer to wait until this happens before they ease things completely, otherwise the risk just passes to people in their 40s, 30s and 20s. And whilst the risk for these age groups is lower, it's not

Statistically - and yes I know that everyone on MN knows a marathon runner in their early 40s who was bedridden for months - most people in these age groups are highly likely to have a mild case. What if they, in the majority, want to get back to their lives and don't want their jobs, studies and social lives restricted until the risk is 'zero', which it will never be? You can't live life with zero risk.

Yes I’m in those groups and I’m ready to get back to living my life as soon as the most vulnerable are vaccinated. I don’t need everyone to carry on locking down to protect me as I’m very low risk on my 30s. All my friends feel the same.

I’m CV too btw, but even with that I’m low risk.

The vaccine doesn't stop you being a spreader, the vaccine does not give immunity.

The vaccine doesn't stop you being a spreader, the vaccine does not give immunity

Can you find one single solitary link to show the the vaccine does not stop spreading? For clarity - you'd be looking for something that doesn't simply say "isn't proven to reduce transmission" or the equivalent.

I'll wait.

@FourTeaFallOut

The vaccine doesn't stop you being a spreader, the vaccine does not give immunity

Can you find one single solitary link to show the the vaccine does not stop spreading? For clarity - you'd be looking for something that doesn't simply say "isn't proven to reduce transmission" or the equivalent.

I'll wait.

Annoying, isn't it? This 'it doesn't stop you transmitting the virus you know' is trotted out every time as though it were a proven fact, when the reality is that there isn't any data to prove it for the simple reason that the vaccines haven't been tested in real-world situations yet. 3 or 4 months from now we should know a lot more, and scientists seem optimistic that the vaccines will reduce, if not eliminate, transmission. Sounds good to me.

It's just endless.

This article says we won't need any, apparently :
mobile.twitter.com/apoorva_nyc/status/1349012514529566725

Moderna have said that immunity via their vaccine will last at least a year, likely to be similar for other vaccines, could potentially be much longer...maybe even decades
mobile.twitter.com/apoorva_nyc/status/1328751557719040001

@FourTeaFallOut in the document sent out by the senior medical officer of the Armed forces.....