Depressing but interesting reflection on New Zealand...

[Ohbabybab]

If only we’d followed a similar path

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2021/jan/05/watching-new-zealands-covid-success-from-britain-has-shown-me-nations-make-their-own-luck

I can understand perhaps the delay shutting borders etc in Feb/March. We didn't know what was going to happen. But all the summer holiday travel seemed completely crazy to me, why were all those trips to Europe etc allowed to go ahead?

It was reported everywhere like a Fox News Republican Convention, maximum salivation.

I don't know what Sky News's coverage was like in early February - I'd be very interested to see any links you have saved - but you highlight a huge part of the problem. By the time covid came along we'd already been subjected to 4 years plus of brexit bullshit and trump bullshit. There were already very high levels of public mistrust in anything politicians or the media said, especially if it appeared overblown or sensationalised.

In times of trouble people turn to the BBC and in early February they were just telling us to wash our hands and use a hanky.

People would have dealt with stopped flights as we dealt with lockdown 6 weeks later = acceptance.

No they wouldn't.

At February half term we had 9 confirmed cases and no deaths. By 23 March, when the first lockdown started, we had had over 6000 cases and 331 deaths. Even then, loads of people did not greet lockdown with 'acceptance'.

A law to stop flights just would not have passed in early February regardless of how wise a decision it looks to us now, almost a year later, and regardless of how wise a decision it looked then, to a tiny few people. February 2020 was the olden days before the Coronavirus Act. The government could not have just bunged out a statutory instrument and expected the public to 'accept' it. They'd have had to submit a proper bill to be debated, amended and voted on in each house. Such a bill would have fallen at the first vote because 9 cases and no deaths.

The UK will never get on top of the virus while planeloads of people stream into Heathrow every day. In Australia we discovered very quickly that 99% of 'important' business travel is in fact not essential.

Agree @StartupRepair. my DH used to fly all the time for the most ridiculous reasons, like he’d fly from Sydney to Brisbane to do someone’s appraisal or to Melbourne for a meeting.
Soon his work discovered that this was entirely unnecessary and he’ll never go back to that way of working now, thank goodness.

OzGirl75, interesting how different perspectives can be :). Other than the colossal fuck up from last year, I am glad to be in Melbourne, because uncertainty does my head in, so the NSW approach really wouldn't work for me. I'm (really genuinely) glad that the NSW approach of more freedom/more uncertainty is working for you though :)

PP were talking about Japan - which DID have a very meticulous contact tracing system from the beginning...as well as some of the other things mentioned in this article from way back in June last year

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/06/contact-tracing-japan-coronavirus-covid-19-patients-social-etiquette

Unfortunately, as cases rose, tracking has become more difficult, which is why we are seeing a rise in cases recently - but still, with twice the population of the UK, we have only had about 260,000 cases and just over 3,800 deaths in all so far.

@Ozgirl75
Japan is an interesting one too - aged population, loads of people, high population density, cold winter, yet very few deaths.
Healthier population? Lower obesity? But Australia has high obesity too.

I agree.
When I have plenty of time, I was going to look into that and some other countries too.

yes, a far healthier population in general (especially among older generations) and way less obesity.
(apart from the sumo wrestlers - unfortunately one young wrestler has already died from COVID and another quit the sport today, as he felt unsafe...)

japantoday.com/category/sports/japan-sumo-wrestler-quits-saying-coronavirus-fears-ignored

@HalfPastThree
*No country in the Asia Pacific has had a really bad epidemic, whatever measures were taken. I think there's a geographic factor (I don't know what it is) that's skewing things.

Test & trace worked in South Korea, but nowhere in Europe
Zero-Covid lockdowns worked in New Zealand / Australia, but nowhere in Europe
Masks worked in Japan, but nowhere in Europe
etc.*

Having looked at the deaths per million population figures, Europe fares really badly.

As regards masks, do people know if say Japan uses different sorts to say the UK?
Is perhaps something being missed there?
The blue masks that people use, and the hospital ppe always look ridiculously inadequate to me.

We use either home-made cloth masks, or disposable ones similar to the blue ones in the UK.
But Japanese people wear them religiously! from the age of 3!!

I hated masks and never wore them in the winter before COVID hit - whereas it was the custom for almost everyone to wear them in winter to prevent coughs and colds.
Primary school children have always worn them when serving school dinners to their classmates, every lunchtime. They are just not a big deal and so people wear them as a matter of course.

Thank you.

I can see that travelling to Japan, it is necessary to self isolate for 14 days on arrival.
Another reason perhaps that Japan is doing relatively well as regards covid.

I live in a rural area. We actually were one of the first areas that got quite badly hit, relatively, by covid.
Because we are rural and close knit, it soon became apparent where covid had come from. It had come from people coming back at Feb Half Term from trips abroad in Europe.

Personally I dont think the UK will ever properly get on top of covid unless it enforces a 14 day isolation period when someone has been abroad. May be ok not to do that in summer months, but not from say Sept - Mar/April

masks like the ones worn by these young people yesterday (scroll down for other photos)

japantoday.com/category/national/young-japanese-celebrate-coming-of-age-day-under-covid's-shadow

I can see that travelling to Japan, it is necessary to self isolate for 14 days on arrival
Another reason perhaps that Japan is doing relatively well as regards covid

yes Japan closed its borders completely to all non-Japanese (including long term, permanent residents like me!) for many months last year.
They eventually let visa holders back in, with a mandatory PCR test 72 hours before arrival, and 14 day quarantine.
Now, we are in a state of emergency, so all arrivals, including Japanese nationals, must have a negative covid test before arrival - and if you are coming from the UK, some part of US, South Africa etc. you have to stay 3 days in isolation in a government-designated hotel (at no personal charge) and take ANOTHER test before they release you for the rest of quarantine either at home, or in another hotel.
No incoming travellers are allowed to use public transport, so people have to get relatives to collect them from the airport, book private cars, or rent cars.

That’s really interesting @CallItLoneliness because I actually feel that the NSW way feels more calm and certain, in that I have a level of certainty of being able to plan things and live a normal life knowing that if we get a few cases it isn’t a massive big deal. I might have to isolate for a couple of weeks (although I never have so far 🤞) but then it’s probably back to normal again, whereas I see mainly QLD and WA over reacting every time they have a couple of cases and it makes me feel like that must be a weirdly stressful and uncertain way to live.
But maybe that’s just because firstly I’m not overly worried about actually getting Covid myself, and also because it’s just the experience I’ve had so far. I expect if I lived in Qld I would look at NSW and think we’re under reacting, whereas living here day to day it doesn’t feel like that.

@Aixenprovence

"Then compare the U.K. to Japan."

Yes. That is a fascinating comparison - but I'm not sure what the conclusions are for what the UK should have done/be doing. Am I right that Japan didn't really do track and trace, didn't have a major lockdown? Is mask-wearing the difference? I wonder if diet has anything to do with it - has anyone investigated that at all, I wonder?

Well yes, obesity barely exists in Japan. Whereas in UK.... Oh dear

Thing is, I don’t think being slim stops you catching it, it just means you’re less likely to die, so that doesn’t really work either as it’s not like Japan has loads of cases but very few deaths, they don’t have the cases in the first place.

The Japanese have much more experience with these kind of illnesses - SARS etc. Also a much more tolerant mask wearing culture which seem to be used by lots of people all the time.
I'm sure there are other cultural, health considerations - in fact much of East Asia has coped well.

@FromEden

They cant just stop all passenger flights to a major hub like the UK because they will lose the slots and may not be able to restart them when the time comes. Also, there are always essential reasons to travel and citizens have to be allowed back.

You're right that if an airline neglects to use a slot between two airports on a regular basis then yes, they can lose it. There are mechanisms in place to avoid mitigate the problem when it comes to an industry/worldwide problem but it does involve coordination usually at international level which takes time.

aci.aero/news/2020/11/26/aviation-industry-agrees-vital-slot-use-relief/

..and yes you're right that there needs to be some essential travel though I do think the UK rules on who can enter are remarkably permissive....

@TantaRose
Those restrictions and conditions are bound to have some effect in my opinion.

NZ followed the science and locked down early before it had got a hold. The UK (and not just the UK) wasted time trying to court public opinion - and then it was too late as we could never get back the advantage of having few cases.

To be fair, the UK has for the last few decades operated on open borders with UK (I know it's not Schengen, but still very open). It would have been logistically very tough to come down as hard on the borders/new arrivals. Not impossible, but much more complex than NZ.

Also the UK has a land border with Europe/ ROI which cannot be closed because of the Good Friday Agreement

IMVVHO I think it's worth quantifying when to all intents and purposes NZ locked down - it was mid March, about the same time as some mainland European countries went into lockdown and before the UK did.

NZ weren't massively world leading in locking down early in terms of dates on the calendar but to their credit there politicians they used the lag in the disease really getting down that part of the world to great advantage..

I still scratch my head about why the UK didn't lockdown a couple of weeks earlier than it did (half term?) , and I do think it was, and to some extent still has an odd approach to the subject of either testing passengers prior to them embarking for the UK (finally introduced this week I believe) or testing immediately on arrival in the UK(still not done).

@Ozgirl75 the reason it feels safer/more certain to me is that I have seen how quickly we can go from 30 cases rumbling along to a zillion cases. I suspect some of the particular circumstances of the outbreak in VIC contributed to that, but it was scary as hell. I'm not personally worried about getting COVID, but I do worry about my over 50 DH getting it--longcovid is prevalent in men in his age group, and his job mostly can't be done at home.

@CallItLoneliness I think for people in Vic, who have lived through it, it makes so much more sense to have that level of fear that it would happen again. Conversely, I believe our system is working (so far!) so I tend to support it as we have shown that we can have small clusters without it escalating.
However, many countries show us that past performance are no indicator of future success so we could easily all have outbreaks in the future.
I wish they would start vaccinating us, especially older people.