Depressing but interesting reflection on New Zealand...

[Ohbabybab]

If only we’d followed a similar path

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2021/jan/05/watching-new-zealands-covid-success-from-britain-has-shown-me-nations-make-their-own-luck

NZ has some geographical and population advantages but the UK a) has some and didn't capitalise on them, most notably being an island b) routinely made bad decisions against clear evidence to the contrary and tbh continues to do so. It's almost as though "cautious" is a dirty word for the PM, as though locking down earlier would get him accused of being "frit".

The problem with relying on a negative test 72 hours before is that so many test positive before or after that narrow window and would be missed on the day any test took place.

The U.K. does have a land border and people cross it every day for work and other reasons. How would closing the borders work with that?

NZ has done amazingly well, and although I don't believe us and them to be directly comparable due to population etc, fair play to them. There are plenty of things we should have done 'better', and I am sure in time it will be reflected on with great judgement.

I think on the borders/quarantine point, the government were following the scientific advice - not just WHO, but also its own advisers/CMO/CSO etc. I haven't seen anything to suggest that SAGE advised closing the borders at the time.**

I don’t remember/haven’t read anything that say they’ve suggested that either. Obviously whoever provides scientific advice to New Zealand did, so I can’t believe it wasn’t thought here as well but rejected for political and economical reasons.

It's not 'closing the borders', it's strictly quarantining new arrivals. There's a waiting list to get back into Australia because they can only accept a small number per week who then go straight into quarantine hotels. We could do this, but there government decided not to. That's why we're now in this mess of repeated lockdowns with a fucked economy.

Meanwhile, you can walk straight out of an airport in the UK and onto public transport without anyone even checking where you're going, let alone whether you're carrying Covid.

It's comparing apples with oranges.

For a start we already had a level of virus in the community after returns from ski resorts and so we were at a different starting point.

We could have done more with our boarders. For a start we have huge hotel chains at our airports and could have used it for quarantine. I personally think less people would have travelled because they can if the restrictions were tighter.

So yes, I agree with the fact we could have done more. But I don't think we could follow NZ and what they did as we are different and had a different starting point.

To put it in simple terms

New Zealand is the equivalent of the married stay at home mother of 1 child, a healthy 9 year old, with absolutely no financial worries living in a large rural home with a highly supportive network in the form of her two healthy parents.
Easy for her to home cook from scratch every day!

Whereas the UK is the equivalent of the single mother living in a 3 bee high rise flat with 5 children (all under 7 years old and 4 of whom have serious SEN and / or behavioural issues) from 3 different fathers. She has absolutely no support network and is working 2 jobs. Oh and her one surviving parent suffers Alzheimer’s and relies heavily on her.
Not so easy for her to home cook from scratch every day!

Being in Australia and so close to China, we knew here that some kind of virus would emerge from China at some point and had a very specific plan for when (not if) that happened. As soon as we heard about the potential novel pneumonia, that plan sprung into action, back in mid January.
The government works with business leaders, heads of schools etc to keep them in the loop and ensure there was an organised plan. It wasn’t luck - we had a plan and we put it into play and so far it’s working.

@Sethy38

I agree. New Zealand has been resolute and disciplined which seems to have paid off. But their context/starting point is very different from the UK

How long do new zealand and australia plan to stay shut off from the world? At this stage it will have be forever because covid isn't going away in the rest of the world. All it takes is one person slipping through the controls to start an outbreak, and with so few infections already, there is hardly any immunity within the population.

Even if our borders weren't closed, they still could have prepared much more before the train hit us.

@FromEden

How long do new zealand and australia plan to stay shut off from the world? At this stage it will have be forever because covid isn't going away in the rest of the world. All it takes is one person slipping through the controls to start an outbreak, and with so few infections already, there is hardly any immunity within the population.

We’re starting vaccination next month and they expect that we’ll be back flying by the end of the year, if not a bit earlier. So no, we won’t have to be closed “forever”. Interestingly our tourism industry hasn’t been decimated at all, because no one can go overseas so everyone is holidaying here. It was so hard to find a nice place to stay this summer because everyone is still here!

@Sethy38

To put it in simple terms

New Zealand is the equivalent of the married stay at home mother of 1 child, a healthy 9 year old, with absolutely no financial worries living in a large rural home with a highly supportive network in the form of her two healthy parents.
Easy for her to home cook from scratch every day!

Whereas the UK is the equivalent of the single mother living in a 3 bee high rise flat with 5 children (all under 7 years old and 4 of whom have serious SEN and / or behavioural issues) from 3 different fathers. She has absolutely no support network and is working 2 jobs. Oh and her one surviving parent suffers Alzheimer’s and relies heavily on her.
Not so easy for her to home cook from scratch every day!

Yes.

But at one point. Neither of them had any of that and they could choose to do whatever they wanted.

@Orangeblossom77777

There are people in UK with no restrictions. On Guernsey they have none.

No restrictions for day to day life BUT all arrivals to the island (whether visitors or returning residents) have to strictly quarantine for 14 days, with a test on day 13. Otherwise 21 days quarantine and no day 13 test. NO leaving premises at all, not even for exercise. And the health and border authorities DO check.

But then their population is about the same as the number of new cases UK is getting daily....

At one point, back in mid March, the U.K. and Australia had the same number of cases (I know as my husband was there for work and I was doomscrolling daily in the hope he wouldn’t get trapped there). Then we closed our border and brought in quarantine at the end of March, the U.K. allowed all those people coming back from half term to seed all over the U.K. From that moment our paths deviated.

The U.K. can’t just close its borders

A) the GFA makes it impossible

B) much of its food supply comes from Europe via freight and is driven through the country

C) London is an international business hub and would have come under huge pressure to allow necessary business travel.

It just wasn’t feasible

NZ didn't just close its borders, it has literally stopped its people from travelling or returning to nz.
They arw OK as long as they maintain that.
Would you accept not being able to leave UK or if you did not being allowed back? Until when?
NZ has not said at which point this may change, it could be years.
As covid is unlikely to be eradicated eventually if travel resumes they will get it.
Unless they isolate the whole country forever
More importantly nz is a net exporter of food, they can be self sufficient. The UK is a net importer of food... We cannot.

Australia still has approx 25000 nationals waiting to be allowed back... That is since march last Yr, people are stuck...

1. We still have freight, by boat and by air. There are exemptions. Freight is also driven across state lines - again, exemptions and careful testing track and trace

1. Our businesses understood that they had to take a hit for the good of the country. It has meant that our economy dipped hugely at first, now has recovered. Government support was there for areas that haven’t yet picked up (international travel).

1. There has been business travel - exemptions, quarantine and track and trace have allowed some business travel to go ahead. The world has not stopped here.

1. Yes Australia is slowly allowing people back in. Partly, if they had come back when they were told to, when there was a window to come back with minimal restrictions, they would not be stuck. DH was overseas and changed his flight when the government told him to.

Equally I do have sympathy for those people and think the govt should be doing more to bring them back safely.

1. We won’t be cut off forever because; vaccines. I don’t know what their plan would have been if they hadn’t been able to develop a vaccine.

But they dont even know if the vaccine stops transmission, only that it reduces the severity of symptoms. I've already read of several cases where a person who received the vaccine contracted covid anyway.

interestingly our tourism industry hasn’t been decimated at all, because no one can go overseas so everyone is holidaying here.

That is surprising considering the amount of tourism income that must come from backpackers. I also read that farmers are having trouble finding workers to harvest food now that overseas workers are gone.

The amount that comes from backpackers is fairly small in comparison to the numbers from people who would normally head overseas and instead are staying here.
Parts of the tourist industry that cater to mainly overseas tourists did struggle at first (city centre places) but that’s picked up now too.

True about farmers and they’ve tried to encourage young people to do a stint on farms and have also flown workers in from Timor and the pacific islands.

Vaccine - yes, but there are only 25 million of us, so they can vaccinate us all in a matter of weeks.

Plus we’re not NZ - we’ve never said we won’t have ANY cases, just that we want to control outbreaks and keep it out of aged care and hospitals so we don’t get too many preventable deaths.

No country in the Asia Pacific has had a really bad epidemic, whatever measures were taken. I think there's a geographic factor (I don't know what it is) that's skewing things.

Test & trace worked in South Korea, but nowhere in Europe
Zero-Covid lockdowns worked in New Zealand / Australia, but nowhere in Europe
Masks worked in Japan, but nowhere in Europe
etc.

I must say, I can’t fully understand it either. Why did we have a cluster of over 100 cases in Sydney in December and then with a pretty mild lockdown it just all....went away?
My DH has a theory that it is spreading here but it’s keeping out of aged care so far, and our cities tend to have younger inhabitants so it just isn’t making people really sick.
Doesn’t quite work though as thousands are being tested and the numbers remain low.

Japan is an interesting one too - aged population, loads of people, high population density, cold winter, yet very few deaths.
Healthier population? Lower obesity? But Australia has high obesity too.