Depressing but interesting reflection on New Zealand...

[Ohbabybab]

If only we’d followed a similar path

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2021/jan/05/watching-new-zealands-covid-success-from-britain-has-shown-me-nations-make-their-own-luck

Nobody is picking up my point about how "UK" (but actually GB) "shut the borders" would have affected Ireland.

Cutting off Norn from RoI is an even bigger headache prospect than below, of course.

GB is a vital landbridge for Irish trade with rest of world.

2020. The year when, you know, Brexit & Norn were sensitive subjects. Still, just cut off Ireland from most their export markets coz... you know. "Close the Borders" would matter more just then. Right after Johnson had negotiated his "great deal" with Taoiseach. I wonder how UK (GB) screwing over Ireland might have been received by American politicians.

@MutantNinjaCovid

Singapore, China, Thailand, Vietnam, New Zealand and Australia have had zero covid deaths this week.

3 of those countries have regimes where you wouldn't know the truth!
Singapore is a very small country.

That aside- we really won't know which if any approaches worked for many years. This will be a very long game.

In Year One though. We have 86,000 preventable deaths.

And they prevented them.

That bodes well for the future for them.

And not for us.

@lljkk

Nobody is picking up my point about how "UK" (but actually GB) "shut the borders" would have affected Ireland.

Cutting off Norn from RoI is an even bigger headache prospect than below, of course.

GB is a vital landbridge for Irish trade with rest of world.

2020. The year when, you know, Brexit & Norn were sensitive subjects. Still, just cut off Ireland from most their export markets coz... you know. "Close the Borders" would matter more just then. Right after Johnson had negotiated his "great deal" with Taoiseach. I wonder how UK (GB) screwing over Ireland might have been received by American politicians.

Brexit is the reason why Irish shipping routes now bypass Britain and NI residents have to pay duty on anything they order from shops in England, Wales and Scotland.

Stuff that comes into the U.K. from the EU can't go back into the EU country of Ireland so easily now. So our days as a vital hub are kind of numbered.

@PicsInRed

The difference is that NZ was willing to give it a go.

The UK did nothing. And still is.

We did nothing? We’ve made it illegal to see people, wrecked our economy, ruined our kids education and become judgemental years to try to control a virus. It’s been unsuccessful because it’s a virus designed to spread, it’s endemic and it’s winter not because we’ve done nothing but because people have to mix to keep us alive. For every time I don’t go shopping a whole chain of people have to be out to do that for me. Staying home is a privilege that simply transfers risk.

Amazing how back then the Guardian was calling Trump a racist for travel bans on China but now apparently it's wrong that countries didn't shut borders sooner. The hypocrisy is astounding

There is the germ of a reasonable point here.

Right now, we have this thing where the more left-wing you are the more likely you are to be in favor of suppression and travel bans, while being more conservative you are more likely to say that the virus is being exaggerated, let it circulate through society, I want my freedom etc.

Back in February last year, it was actually kind of the other way round for quite a while. My Twitter was full of left wing commentators saying "Oh look, typical right-wing fear mongering about foreign viruses! You're more at risk from the flu!" and a sort of general feeling that it was a bit kind of unenlightened and xenophobic to close borders.

Take this, for example:
www.vox.com/2020/2/7/21126758/coronavirus-xenophobia-racism-china-asians

While some efforts to contain the virus seem fairly practical — like the suspension of flights to mainland China — others seem to be unfairly targeting Asian people. Australia is quarantining people who’ve recently been to China’s Hubei province, many of whom are of Asian descent, on an offshore island.

So, Australia's very sensible "stop flights from infected region" policy was being put in the naughty/racist category here, simply because a high % of people whom it happened to affect were Asian, leading to much tut-tutting.

"Almost Nobody Talks About the Great Covid Realignment"
twitter.com/edwest/status/1318460476901253120

(See the tweet from Nigel Farage back in March, calling for CLOSING BORDERS RIGHT NOW!!!! Everyone seems to have forgotten stuff like this)

www.statnews.com/2020/01/31/as-far-right-calls-for-china-travel-ban-health-experts-warn-coronavirus-response-would-suffer/comment-page-3/

Far right called for travel ban. Public health officials, sympathetically reported by left-leaning media, expressed outrage and assured us all that travel bans don't work, make things worse, cause economic disruption etc.

That is not to say that a narrow "China travel ban" would have been ideal. Quarantining all flights from overseas would be more effective. But PH experts were saying pretty explicitly that countries shouldn't be doing ANY kind of travel bans. There was a definite feeling at the time in many quarters that shutting down non-quarantined travel meant you were this kind of xenophobe who wanted to blame things on foreigners etc.

NZ and Australia have surely, due to their position on the globe, many more dealings with China and Asia than we do.
Certainly I think they export hugely to them and they must have large numbers of Asian students at university (relatively to others, ok we have huge numbers too but probably not relative to UK students)
It means the previous flu and SARS scares in Asia would have been seen as much more of a risk than they were to us. So they were quick to react and had plans in place.
Also we were wrangling with Brexit etc so definitley did not have an eye on the ball. 4 years of arguing from parliamentary Remainers didn't help
I agree NZ did well but there were reasons.

Right now, we have this thing where the more left-wing you are the more likely you are to be in favor of suppression and travel bans, while being more conservative you are more likely to say that the virus is being exaggerated, let it circulate through society, I want my freedom etc. Yes this is the fascinating bit. Taking sides over how to deal with a virus. Except the virus doesn't care.

@RuleWithAWoodenFoot

No it wouldn't.

Lots of Kiwis have spent 9 months raging about this stuff. They hate being trapped. I mean, my main contact on this issue is a guy whose partner lives in LA.

As a kiwi, I disagree. Most of us accept that closing our borders is necessary at this point, and has undoubtedly saved many lives.

If most of us disagreed, Jacinda would not have won a landslide in the recent election. Even our opposition party has stopped campaigning to open our borders.

People can leave, and they can come back if the have a visa. Coming back requires quarantine, applying for a spot to do so, and you pay $3000 (about 1600 quid including food) if you have been for a short holiday or work trip. Those of us with loved ones overseas are making sacrifices for the good of our community.

Head
Wall
Repeatedly bang

Many seem to have missed out on geography lessons where they teacher talked about differences between countries.

Or indeed - read anything other than mumsnet or daily mail (headlines only needless to say)

That article is not news. It is purely anecdotal.

You want facts and figures and objective fact based news OP

Lots of Kiwis have spent 9 months raging about this stuff. They hate being trapped.

I take issue with "lots" - I haven't heard one person "rage". Many are disappointed that they can't go overseas for a holiday, but they are taking it on the chin, and know that it won't be forever. The majority of people here are grateful that we are in the position we are in.

@CKBJ

We could see what was happening in China and Italy but still our borders weren’t closed

Keeping borders open was done following advice by the WHO

[quote trulydelicious]@CKBJ

We could see what was happening in China and Italy but still our borders weren’t closed

Keeping borders open was done following advice by the WHO[/quote]
I don’t know either way
I’m curious though

WHO actually advised “keep borders open”?

@lljkk

I think I read 76k persons work at Heathrow (alone). So probably all the ports/airports suddenly would have a lot less to do. Maybe a mere 500k persons furloughed all this time, though?

Wasn't the AstraZeneca vaccine tested in Brazil; was it made in Britain & shipped there or did they manufacture it in Brazil. I was just wondering if vaccines could travel as unaccompanied freight.

NZers trapped abroad... Actually... that's a thought. Are NZers being threatened with deportation by staying too long in countries they have no residency in -- what does a country like USA do with a tourist NZer who has over-stayed their tourist visa but not allowed home? Do they get arrested?

NZers ARE allowed home. They have been able to come home at any point since the country locked down, provided they could get a flight and, more recently, book a spot in government-run isolation facilities.

Theresa May was a female leader. I don’t think she would have closed the borders tbh. I don’t think it’s about being female I think it’s about having the confidence to make unpopular decisions and stick to them from the very beginning.

@Sethy38

WHO actually advised keep borders open

Yes, back in March. Most countries followed their guidance - although many people intuituively thought it was a bad idea.

Same with masks - first the WHO advised against wearing them, then they backtracked.

Noone is talking about cutting off freight, just tourists. Or talking about cutting off Ireland fgs 😂 If NZers were so angry about being "trapped", we'd have voted Ardern out. We didn't. The utterly mad opposition stood on opening borders and were sent packing.

The many Asian and Pacific countries did the same when they closed borders - kept freight, dumped tourists. They prioritised.

If we (in the UK) did this we wouldn't have zero covid, but we could have a low and manageable level of covid.

Or, we could keep on as we are, which is working great. 🤔

[quote trulydelicious]@CKBJ

We could see what was happening in China and Italy but still our borders weren’t closed

Keeping borders open was done following advice by the WHO[/quote]
NZ et al had the good sense to examine that advice in the context of everything else the WHO were saying and doing, and to continue to take the medical and epidemiological advice whilst ignoring the extremely partisan political advice. This was the correct choice.

In time, we'll all have a really good, detailed look at the leadership of the WHO and their political connections.

We'd have needed to stop tourists and quarantine essental travellers properly in supervised hotels early on, and have kept that going throughout. Bungling Boris, as the head of a "libertarian" Conservative government, will never do that. New Zealand has many advantages over us : lower population density, more isolated location and a woman with a brain in charge!

@trulydelicious New Zealand obviously ignored that advice then good on them.
It’s all political it’s not like UK government take what WHO say as gospel.

@ToHellinahandbasket yes you are right just a leader who is willing to lead,make unpopular decisions but knows they are for the better good...a bit like parenting.

"China doesn't seem exactly closed off from the world. Neither do Australia, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong..."

I don't know about 4 of these, but i thought Australia did not currently permit non-nationals (and those with long term residence?) to enter Australia, with some exceptions for special (compassionate?) circumstances. I assume it does allow freight - not sure if that has to be unaccompanied, would be interesting to know. Australians also need permission to leave Australia aiui, which is not always granted.

As a country we’re attempting to lead the way and be a great example of the vaccine rollout (fingers crossed because as my DC’s would say our world beating test and trace is an epic fail!) why couldn’t we have been the lead country-like New Zealand, in eradicating the virus (or get and keep numbers extremely low)? It could have been possible with robust timely decisions made, strict quarantine of those that must come into the country and borders shut. The government were blinded by the knock of effect to the economy without considering the bigger picture. Surely someone linked to the power of this country who knows about infectious diseases could see have had a good go at predicting the predicament we find ourselves in?!

I don't think Sage/CMO/CSO advised closing borders, or even quarantine, in Feb/Mar 2020 did they? In fact I don't think they are advising it now - the new plan is to require a negative test before people are allowed to enter. (Presumably not applied to freight drivers?)

Quarantine - again, as far as I'm aware Sage/CMO etc haven't advised, and aren't advising, that this should be in supervised hotels. It does seem a gap in quarantine that people can go home on public transport (and even in a taxi there is some risk of transmission, presumably) and then enforcement is only partial.

Maybe the scientific reason for not doing 'border closure' it is that if you can't achieve almost 100% prevention of people entering (and our reliance on accompanied freight means that would be very disruptive, lead to panic buying etc), it isn't worth doing? Would be interesting to know.

"It could have been possible with robust timely decisions made, strict quarantine of those that must come into the country and borders shut. The government were blinded by the knock of effect to the economy without considering the bigger picture."

I think on the borders/quarantine point, the government were following the scientific advice - not just WHO, but also its own advisers/CMO/CSO etc. I haven't seen anything to suggest that SAGE advised closing the borders at the time.